BMIE Market 41051

Kenton County, Kentucky · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	33,054 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,000 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	11,280 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±478 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	26,796 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	9,603 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$104,201 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,395 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	36.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,291 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±159 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$268,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,531 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	30.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	24 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 41051
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	4.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+14.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+41.2% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+71.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+300.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	26 (range 23–29) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.54) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	82 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	87 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	83 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	74 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 41051. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.54, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Kentucky and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 407, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	87.2	87	40%	+34.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	82.8	83	35%	+29.0
Market Momentum Score	74.5	74	25%	+18.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 87 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	33,054	91	40%	+36.3
Median household income (ACS)	104,201	84	40%	+33.4
Households (ACS)	11,280	88	20%	+17.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	41.2	78	35%	+27.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	7.3	83	25%	+20.8
Population (ACS)	33,054	91	20%	+18.1
Median household income (ACS)	104,201	84	20%	+16.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	14.3	72	50%	+36.2
10-year restaurant growth	41.2	78	30%	+23.3
20-year restaurant growth	71.4	75	20%	+15.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (48)

By cuisine

American 9 · Pizza 7 · Mexican 5 · Bakery 4 · Coffee 4 · Dessert 4 · Italian 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Breakfast 3 · Burgers 3 · Asian 2 · Chinese 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Chicken / wings 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Japanese 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Seafood 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 23 · Quick service 12 · Bakery 5 · Bar 5 · Casual dining 5 · Dessert 5 · Coffee shop 3 · Food truck 3 · Café 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Delivery-focused 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Asian King and Sushi China King Super Buffet	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Sushi · Japanese · Chinese	1842 Declaration Dr	open
Better Blend - Independence Better Blend - Independence	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	2044 Harris Pike	open
Boone County Distilling Co & Event Center	Winery / distillery / taproom		10601 Toebben Dr	open
Buffalo Wild Wings Buffalo Wild Wings	Bar · Casual dining	American	2004 Centennial Blvd. Independence Village	open
Crewitts Creek Kitchen & Bar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	2037 Centennial Blvd	open
Dan Yu Restaurant Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4213 Richardson Rd	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	6424 #2 Taylor Mill Rd	open
Donatos Pizza Donatos Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2024 Harris Pike	open
Donnellon Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar	American	Blue Spruce Ln	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	2037 Harris Pike	open
El Cerro Grande	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	6477 Taylor Mill Rd	open
Emerson's Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	4147 Madison Pk.	open
First Watch	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	2030 Katie Lane	open
First Watch First Watch	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	2030 Katie Lane	open
Frisch's Big Boy	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · Burgers · American	2112 Declaration Dr	open
Gold Star Chili	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	11982 Madison Pike	open
Gramingo's Sweets & Treats	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	2158 Declaration Dr	open
Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service		2164 Declaration Dr	open
LaRosa's Pizza LaRosa's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2047 Harris Pike	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	2088 Declaration Dr	open
One Pie At A Time Bakery Cafe	Bakery	Bakery	11982 Joseph E Schmiade Rd	open
Papa Johns Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2041 centennial blvd	open
Papa Murphy's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2144 Declaration Dr	open
Peecox Bar & Grill Independence	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		12200 Madison Pike	open
Rahe Mountain Saloon	Bar		11753 Wilson Rd	open
Ray's Burritos-Wraps-Specialty Salads	Quick service	Mexican · American	6426 Taylor Mill Rd	open
Red’s Valley Farmstand	Food truck		4713 Madison Pike	open
Rio Grande	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	2015 Declaration Dr	open
Roadside Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Seafood	Savanah Road	open
Skyline Chili Skyline Chili	Quick service	American · Hot dogs	1968 Declaration Dr	open
Snappy Tomato Pizza Snappy Tomato Pizza - Union City	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1996 Declaration Dr	open
Snappy Tomato Pizza Co.	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Pizza	6426 Taylor Mill Rd	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop	Coffee	2012 Boxer Lane	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	1700 Declaration Dr	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2005 Patriot Way	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	4201 Richardson Rd	open
SUBWAY	Other	Sandwiches		open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2093 Centennial Blvd	open
SugarSnap Sweet Treats	Dessert · Food truck · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	11982 Joseph E Schmiade Rd	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	2019 Centennial Blvd	open
Taqueria Azteca Food Truck	Food truck	Mexican	4189 Richardson Rd	open
Taylor Made Cakes	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	4293 Richardson Rd	open
The Hub Nutrition Spot	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Healthy / salads / bowls	11982 Joseph E Schmiade Rd	open
Wave Enterprises Corporation	Restaurant (service type not stated)		11000 Toebben Dr	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1992 Declaration Drive	open
Whit’s Frozen Custard	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	2026 Harris Pike	open
Wok & Roll	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Chinese	4213 Richardson Rd	open
Space Cowboys Restaurant Group	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2024 Harris Pike	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	7	6	4	2	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	11	9	5	4	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	13	12	6	6	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	14	13	5	7	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	15	15	7	8	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	15	14	5	9	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	14	12	3	9	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	12	10	2	8	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	10	9	2	7	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	15	14	5	8	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	15	12	4	7	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	18	14	6	8	—	1	NAICS2007
2010	17	13	6	7	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	15	12	6	6	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	16	13	6	7	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	20	17	6	10	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	23	21	8	12	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	22	20	7	12	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	23	20	6	13	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	22	18	5	12	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	26	21	5	14	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	24	19	6	12	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	26	20	7	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	27	22	8	11	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	29	24	9	13	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	30	24	10	11	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 41051. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
41015	4.6 mi	19	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.