BMIE Market 41015

Kenton County, Kentucky · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	20,823 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,002 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	8,411 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±402 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	20,864 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	8,943 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$65,683 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,186 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$934 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±70 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$187,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±23,368 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	25.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	19 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 41015
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	10.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-20.8% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-20.8% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-13.6% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-32.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	20 (range 17–24) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.26) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	46 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	65 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	48 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	13 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 41015. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.26, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Kentucky and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 407, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 46 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	65.2	65	40%	+26.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	47.9	48	35%	+16.8
Market Momentum Score	13.3	13	25%	+3.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	20,823	82	40%	+32.8
Median household income (ACS)	65,683	40	40%	+16.0
Households (ACS)	8,411	82	20%	+16.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 48 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-20.8	13	35%	+4.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	9.1	76	25%	+18.9
Population (ACS)	20,823	82	20%	+16.4
Median household income (ACS)	65,683	40	20%	+8.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 13 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-20.8	12	50%	+6.2
10-year restaurant growth	-20.8	13	30%	+4.0
20-year restaurant growth	-13.6	16	20%	+3.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (61)

By cuisine

American 14 · Dessert 9 · Burgers 6 · Coffee 6 · Bakery 5 · Pizza 5 · Chicken / wings 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Mexican 3 · Asian 2 · Chinese 2 · Italian 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · BBQ 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 29 · Bar 12 · Casual dining 11 · Dessert 11 · Bakery 7 · Quick service 7 · Coffee shop 5 · Café 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Delivery-focused 1 · Fast casual 1 · Food truck 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Altiora Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	5034 Old Taylor Mill Rd	open
Bard's Burgers & Chili	Casual dining	Burgers · American	3620 Decoursey Ave	open
Batty Bites Candy Shop	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea · Bakery	Juice / smoothies · Bakery	207 W 34th St	open
Bernhard's Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	3612 Decoursey Ave	open
BIGGBY COFFEE Biggby	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	5068 Old Taylor Mill Rd	open
Buck's BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	3935 Decoursey Ave	open
Dairy Queen Dairy Queen	Quick service	Burgers · American	3220 Decoursey Ave 3220 Decoursey Ave	open
Dari-crest	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	3024 Madison Ave	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	4331 Winston Avenue	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	695 Holland Dr	open
El Jinete Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	5062 Old Taylor Mill Rd	open
Emerson's Bakery Emerson's Bakery US25	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	3612 Decoursey Ave	open
Emerson's Bakery	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Dessert	4147 Madison Avenue	open
Fajita Express	Quick service	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	5028 Old Taylor Mill Rd	open
Fish & Fowl	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	3620 Decoursey Ave	open
Gold Star Chili Gold Star	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	4381 Winston Ave	open
Goodtimers II	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	3614 Decoursey Ave	open
Graeter's Ice Cream Graeter's Ice Cream	Dessert · Bakery	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Bakery	5118 Taylor Mill Rd	open
Granny’s Latonia Diner	Casual dining	American	3728 Winston Ave	open
Green Lantern Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Coffee · American	3938 Decoursey Ave	open
Griff's	Bar		312 E 45th St	open
Harmony Entertainment	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3711 Winston Ave	open
Hawaiian Ice Castle	Dessert	Dessert	202 W Southern Ave	open
Hehman's Tiki Resort	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining		5744 heartwood ct	open
Jeannie's Tavern	Bar		409 W Southern Ave	open
Knuk-N-Futz	Casual dining · Bar	Chicken / wings · American	5468 Taylor Mill Rd	open
LaRosa's Pizzeria LaRosa's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	5128 Taylor Mill Rd	open
Lee's Famous Recipe Chicken Lee's Famous Recipe Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	3719 Winston Ave	open
Legends Bar & Grill / Bock’s Billiards	Bar · Casual dining	American	3530 Decoursey Ave	open
Lucky Duck Pub	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	5028 Old Taylor Mill Rd	open
Lynna's Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	3726 Winston Ave #28	open
Mahogany's Bar	Bar		3715 Winston Ave	open
Marco's Pizza Marco's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	5044 Old Taylor Mill Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	3903 Winston Ave	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	5055 Old Taylor Mill Rd	open
Mic's Pub Iii: The Last Stand	Bar		3702 Huntington Ave	open
Moonrise Doughnuts	Bakery	Bakery	3718 Winston Ave	open
Original Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	5038 Old Taylor Mill Rd	open
Peking Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	4335 Winston Ave	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3927 Winston Avenue	open
Premium Elite Foods Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3935 Decoursey Ave	open
Promenade Palace	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3630 Decoursey Ave	open
Puritix, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2809 Howard Litzler Rd Ste 100	open
Restaurante Tortillería Chapín	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	112 E 30th St	open
Ritte's Corner Cafe	Bar		3711 Winston Ave	open
Skyline Chili	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Healthy / salads / bowls	3931 Winston Ave	open
Skyline Chili Skyline Chili	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	5114 Taylor Mill Rd	open
Snappy Tomato Pizza Co.	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5065 Sandman Dr	open
Sno Castle	Dessert	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	204 W Southern Ave	open
Snow Palace	Dessert	Dessert	204 W Southern Ave	open
Spellbound Bread Co	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	632 Brandtly Ridge Dr	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	4303 Winston Ave	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	5060 Old Taylor Mill Rd	open
Taco Bell KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	5067 Sandman Dr	open
Team Holland, Inc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5120 Taylor Mill Rd Ste 300	open
The Hub Tavern	Casual dining · Bar		3428 Decoursey Ave	open
The Roost Latonia	Café · Coffee shop · Bar	Coffee	3616 Decoursey Ave	open
Velazquez Tacos	Food truck	Mexican	Limerick Cir	open
Villa Fiesta	Casual dining · Bar	Burgers	5966 Taylor Mill Rd	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	4385 Winston Avenue	open
Wild Willie's	Bar		312 E 45th St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	35	28	—	—	—	7	SIC1987
1995	34	26	—	—	—	8	SIC1987
1996	38	29	—	—	—	9	SIC1987
1997	40	30	—	—	—	10	SIC1987
1998	39	26	11	12	3	11	NAICS1997
1999	37	26	10	14	2	10	NAICS1997
2000	29	20	8	10	1	8	NAICS1997
2001	32	22	9	12	1	9	NAICS1997
2002	29	20	9	10	1	7	NAICS1997
2003	30	22	12	8	2	6	NAICS2002
2004	35	25	12	11	2	8	NAICS2002
2005	32	24	10	12	2	7	NAICS2002
2006	32	21	10	10	1	10	NAICS2002
2007	33	23	10	12	1	8	NAICS2002
2008	37	26	11	13	2	9	NAICS2007
2009	33	21	6	12	3	8	NAICS2007
2010	32	22	6	13	3	7	NAICS2007
2011	35	25	9	13	3	6	NAICS2007
2012	34	25	10	13	2	6	NAICS2012
2013	31	24	10	12	2	4	NAICS2012
2014	31	23	9	12	2	5	NAICS2012
2015	29	20	8	10	2	6	NAICS2012
2016	30	23	9	12	2	4	NAICS2012
2017	29	22	10	9	3	4	NAICS2017
2018	30	24	11	10	3	3	NAICS2017
2019	28	21	8	9	4	—	NAICS2017
2020	28	22	7	9	6	—	NAICS2017
2021	27	22	8	9	5	—	NAICS2017
2022	31	22	9	9	4	4	NAICS2022
2023	25	19	7	8	4	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 41015. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
41076	3.3 mi	47	2023
41051	4.6 mi	24	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.