BMIE Market 41129

Boyd County, Kentucky · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,010 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±892 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,721 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±350 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,922 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,238 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$60,885 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,561 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	48.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$720 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±50 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$151,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21,841 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	87.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 41129
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	9.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-25.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-10.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+12.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+50.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	11 (range 8–13) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, 0.0 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	42 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	54 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	45 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	19 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 41129. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, 0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Kentucky and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 407, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 42 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	54.1	54	40%	+21.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	44.5	45	35%	+15.6
Market Momentum Score	19.0	19	25%	+4.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,010	69	40%	+27.7
Median household income (ACS)	60,885	31	40%	+12.4
Households (ACS)	3,721	70	20%	+14.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 45 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-10	18	35%	+6.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	10.0	72	25%	+18.1
Population (ACS)	9,010	69	20%	+13.8
Median household income (ACS)	60,885	31	20%	+6.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 19 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-25	11	50%	+5.4
10-year restaurant growth	-10	18	30%	+5.5
20-year restaurant growth	12.5	41	20%	+8.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (27)

By cuisine

American 9 · Pizza 9 · BBQ 3 · Burgers 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Italian 2 · Asian 1 · Breakfast 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chinese 1 · Coffee 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 20 · Quick service 5 · Casual dining 4 · Other 2 · Bar 1 · Café 1 · Dessert 1 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	3740 Louisa Rd	open
Bentley's Bistro and Sweets	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Latin American (other)		open
Buddy's Clubhouse Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	200 Fairway Dr	open
Dairy Queen Grill & Chill Dairy Queen	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	5996 Crider Dr	open
Denny's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		15236 State Route 180	open
Giovanni's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	29501 Mayo Trail Rd	open
Giovanni's Pizza Giovanni's Fairborn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	3264 Louisa Rd	open
Hangar 54 Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	28583 US 23	open
Hangar 54 Pizza Hangar 54 Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	28583 Highway 23	open
Hangar 54 Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	28583 US 23	open
Hong Kong \| Chinese Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	3333 Court St	open
Knuckle Sammich	Other	Sandwiches · American	3333 Court St	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3416 Court Street	open
Little Caesars Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3416 Court St, Catlettsburg, KY 41129, United States	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	3618 Louisa Rd	open
Papa John's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5996 Crider Dr	open
Patriot Barbeque & Diner	Café · Casual dining	Coffee · BBQ · American	2515 Center St	open
Pizza Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	7641 Crider Dr	open
Reservoir Hogz BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	321 34th St	open
SUBWAY	Other	Sandwiches	3612 Louisa Rd	open
Taco Maker	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	3720 Louisa Rd	open
The Burger Den	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	15236 Ky-180	open
The Pig's Blanket	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	BBQ	3425 Railroad St	open
Tre Fratelli Tre Fratelli	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	3333 Louisa Rd Ste 5	open
Waffle House Waffle House	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	10606 US-23	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	3404 Court Street	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	5996 Crider Dr	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	6	6	1	5	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	7	6	1	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	10	9	2	7	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	14	13	3	10	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	11	8	1	7	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	9	8	1	7	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	11	10	2	8	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	11	10	2	8	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	12	11	4	7	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	8	7	2	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	9	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	9	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	11	9	3	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	11	9	3	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	11	9	2	7	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	12	10	2	8	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	12	9	2	7	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	13	10	2	7	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	14	12	2	9	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	14	12	3	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	14	12	3	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	12	10	—	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	12	10	—	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	13	10	—	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	12	11	3	8	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	10	9	—	7	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 41129. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
25530	4.8 mi	8	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.