BMIE Market 44021

Geauga County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	5,908 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±482 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,080 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±179 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	6,444 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,388 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$82,008 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,929 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$959 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±93 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$242,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,341 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	40.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 44021
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	9.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+28.6% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+12.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+80.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	8 (range 6–11) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.10) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	63 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	67 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	74 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 44021. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.10, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	63.4	63	40%	+25.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	67.3	67	35%	+23.6
Market Momentum Score	74.1	74	25%	+18.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	5,908	63	40%	+25.2
Median household income (ACS)	82,008	65	40%	+25.9
Households (ACS)	2,080	62	20%	+12.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	35%	+28.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	15.2	52	25%	+13.0
Population (ACS)	5,908	63	20%	+12.6
Median household income (ACS)	82,008	65	20%	+12.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	28.6	83	50%	+41.3
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	30%	+24.7
20-year restaurant growth	12.5	41	20%	+8.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (13)

By cuisine

American 3 · Coffee 2 · Bakery 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 6 · Bar 3 · Casual dining 3 · Café 2 · Dessert 2 · Bakery 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Quick service 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Cheshire Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	14537 N Cheshire St	open
Coffee Corners Antiques and Coffee House	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	14544 N Cheshire St	open
Driftwood Catering Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		14001 Main Market Rd	open
Goodwin Avenue Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	13897 Goodwin Ave	open
JC's Restaurant	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	13816 W Center St	open
Mac's Tavern	Bar		16066 Main Market Rd	open
Mulligans Pub, Driving Range & Putt Putt	Bar · Casual dining		13768 Main Market Rd	open
Quintealia's Tea Parlor	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Coffee	14585 E Park St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	14548 N Cheshire St	open
Tom's Foolery Farm And Distillery	Winery / distillery / taproom		17520 Rapids Rd	open
Warren's Spirited Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	14614 E Park St	open
Welshfield Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	14001 Main Market Rd	open
Buckeye Chocolate & Coffee Co	Dessert	Dessert	14646 Ravenna Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	6	5	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	8	8	6	2	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	8	8	6	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	8	8	5	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	8	8	4	3	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	7	7	5	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	10	8	5	2	1	2	NAICS2002
2004	9	7	3	2	2	2	NAICS2002
2005	8	7	4	1	2	1	NAICS2002
2006	6	4	3	1	—	2	NAICS2002
2007	9	7	4	2	1	2	NAICS2002
2008	10	8	6	1	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	10	8	7	—	1	1	NAICS2007
2010	8	6	5	—	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	6	5	4	—	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	9	6	5	—	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	8	6	4	1	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	9	8	5	2	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	11	10	6	2	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	8	7	5	1	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	8	7	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	7	7	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	7	7	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	6	6	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	9	9	6	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	9	9	6	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	9	5	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 44021. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
44065	4.5 mi	5	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.