BMIE Market 44065

Geauga County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	3,842 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±437 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,629 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±202 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,433 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,838 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$95,442 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,377 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	50.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$839 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±155 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$285,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±44,359 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	21.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	5 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 44065
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	13.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-16.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-28.6% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-37.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	3 (range 2–5) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.49) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	46 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	65 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	45 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	16 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 44065. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.49, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 46 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	65.2	65	40%	+26.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	45.5	45	35%	+15.9
Market Momentum Score	16.0	16	25%	+4.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	3,842	56	40%	+22.5
Median household income (ACS)	95,442	78	40%	+31.1
Households (ACS)	1,629	58	20%	+11.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 45 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-28.6	10	35%	+3.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	13.0	60	25%	+15.1
Population (ACS)	3,842	56	20%	+11.3
Median household income (ACS)	95,442	78	20%	+15.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 16 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	50%	+7.3
10-year restaurant growth	-28.6	10	30%	+3.1
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (13)

By cuisine

Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Pizza 2 · Sandwiches 2 · American 1 · Burgers 1 · Coffee 1 · Italian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 7 · Bar 4 · Casual dining 4 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Café 1 · Food truck 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
DiBlasi's Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	12375 Kinsman Rd Bldg l	open
DS Cakes and Sweet Cafe	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Café	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	11110 Kinsman Rd	open
Johnny's Grill and Pizzeria	Casual dining · Bar	Burgers · Pizza	12399 Kinsman Rd	open
Johnnys at Punderson Chalet	Restaurant (service type not stated)		11755 Kinsman Rd	open
Judy's Place Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		11394 Kinsman Rd	open
Madrick's Tavern - Newbury Township, OH	Casual dining · Bar		10760 Kinsman Rd	open
Mangia Mangia	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	11081 Kinsman Rd	open
Sharon James Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		11303 Kinsman Rd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	11110 Kinsman Rd	open
Sutter's	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10655 Kinsman Rd	open
The Bus Stop	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Sandwiches	14634 View Dr	open
Zeppe's Tavern & Pizzeria Zeppe's Tavern & Pizzeria	Casual dining · Bar	Pizza	11110 Kinsman Rd	open
Ramble Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10311 Kinsman Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	11	8	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	11	8	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1996	11	8	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	8	5	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	7	5	4	—	1	2	NAICS1997
1999	5	4	2	1	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	7	6	5	—	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	6	5	4	—	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	6	5	4	—	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	6	5	4	—	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	8	5	4	—	1	2	NAICS2002
2005	7	5	4	—	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	9	8	6	1	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	12	11	6	3	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	7	7	4	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	9	9	6	—	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	6	6	3	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	8	8	6	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	8	8	6	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	7	7	6	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	5	5	3	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	6	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	7	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	7	6	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	7	6	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	7	6	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	5	5	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	5	5	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	4	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	6	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 44065. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
44021	4.5 mi	9	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.