BMIE Market 44044

Lorain County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	14,721 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,165 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,262 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±330 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	15,951 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,653 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$88,333 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,530 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	46.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,072 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±124 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$257,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±22,302 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	54.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	13 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 44044
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+18.2% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-31.6% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+8.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	11 (range 7–15) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, 0.0 per year, r² 0.00) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	63 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	74 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	61 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	50 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 44044. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, 0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.00, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	73.6	74	40%	+29.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	61.1	61	35%	+21.4
Market Momentum Score	50.4	50	25%	+12.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	14,721	76	40%	+30.5
Median household income (ACS)	88,333	72	40%	+28.7
Households (ACS)	4,262	72	20%	+14.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.8	77	25%	+19.2
Population (ACS)	14,721	76	20%	+15.3
Median household income (ACS)	88,333	72	20%	+14.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 50 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	18.2	76	50%	+38.0
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	-31.6	10	20%	+1.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (34)

By cuisine

Italian 4 · American 3 · Coffee 3 · Dessert 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Pizza 3 · BBQ 2 · Mexican 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Indian 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 20 · Bar 6 · Quick service 6 · Dessert 5 · Casual dining 4 · Bakery 2 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bailey's Pizza House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	11991 Island Rd	open
Bellas Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	36709 Royalton Rd	open
BIGGBY COFFEE	Coffee shop	Coffee	508 N Main St.	open
Bksw, Llc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		537 N Main St	open
Butter & Bloom Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	915 Main St	open
CC Saloon - Grafton, OH	Casual dining · Bar		893 Main St	open
Chatty's Tavern - Grafton, OH	Casual dining · Bar		15478 Avon Belden Rd	open
Check Please Cafe - Grafton, OH	Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	597 Main St	open
China House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	411 Main St	open
Dairy Queen Grill & Chill	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts	35040 Royalton Rd	open
Deluxe Bar	Bar		893 N Main St	open
Don Mexcal	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	493 Main St	open
Franklin Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom		516 N Main St	open
Franklin Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom		516 Main St	open
Gehring's Tavern	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		423 Main St	open
Hoot n' Holler	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ		open
Indian Hollow Lorain County Metropark	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian		open
Jodi's	Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
Jones Bones BBQ & Grub	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	35015 Royalton Rd	open
Kountry Dough & Jo	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	35129 Royalton Rd	open
Lu's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	945 Main St	open
Marco's Pizza Marco's Pizza	Quick service	Pizza · Italian	537 N Main St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	412 Main St	open
Mezcal Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	493 N Main St	open
Midview Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	35113 Royalton Rd	open
Nancy's Main Street Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	426 Main St	open
PlasPoint LLC	Restaurant (service type not stated)		39582 Parsons Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	35121 E Royalton Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	514 N Main St	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service		432 North Main Street	open
The Jailhouse Taverne	Bar		15478 Grafton Eastern Road	open
The Trading Post	Bar		15478 Grafton-Eastern Rd	open
The Village Coffee & Creamery	Dessert · Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee	486 Main St	open
Whisky Barn Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		11043 Durkee Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	15	12	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	13	11	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	14	12	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	15	13	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	15	12	6	5	1	3	NAICS1997
1999	15	13	6	5	2	2	NAICS1997
2000	17	14	6	6	2	2	NAICS1997
2001	17	15	5	7	3	2	NAICS1997
2002	18	16	7	7	2	2	NAICS1997
2003	21	19	5	13	1	2	NAICS2002
2004	25	22	5	15	2	2	NAICS2002
2005	23	20	4	15	1	2	NAICS2002
2006	20	18	4	13	1	2	NAICS2002
2007	22	19	5	13	1	2	NAICS2002
2008	17	15	4	10	1	2	NAICS2007
2009	15	14	3	9	2	1	NAICS2007
2010	15	14	5	8	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	14	13	6	6	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	13	12	6	5	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	16	13	6	6	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	18	14	7	6	1	2	NAICS2012
2015	13	9	3	6	—	1	NAICS2012
2016	13	8	3	5	—	2	NAICS2012
2017	14	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	16	11	6	5	—	3	NAICS2017
2019	16	12	7	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	15	10	5	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	16	10	5	5	—	3	NAICS2017
2022	15	11	5	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	16	13	5	6	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 44044. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
44050	4.6 mi	12	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.