BMIE Market 44050

Lorain County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	7,059 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±506 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,644 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±245 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	6,118 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,340 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$103,611 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,141 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	45.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,013 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±87 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$276,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±25,366 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	25.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	12 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 44050
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	18.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+71.4% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+300.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	13 (range 8–17) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.36) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	76 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	73 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	72 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	85 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 44050. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.36, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	72.6	73	40%	+29.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	72.1	72	35%	+25.2
Market Momentum Score	85.4	85	25%	+21.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	7,059	66	40%	+26.3
Median household income (ACS)	103,611	83	40%	+33.3
Households (ACS)	2,644	65	20%	+13.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	71.4	88	35%	+30.9
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	17	46	25%	+11.5
Population (ACS)	7,059	66	20%	+13.1
Median household income (ACS)	103,611	83	20%	+16.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	100	96	50%	+48.0
10-year restaurant growth	71.4	88	30%	+26.5
20-year restaurant growth	33.3	54	20%	+10.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (21)

By cuisine

American 6 · Coffee 3 · Dessert 3 · Breakfast 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · Pizza 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 9 · Casual dining 5 · Bar 4 · Café 3 · Dessert 3 · Quick service 2 · Bakery 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Agape Coffeehouse	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	105 Public Square	open
Becca's Choo Choos	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	179 Railroad St	open
Cafe LaGrange	Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	548 N Center St	open
China Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	544 N Center St	open
Depot At Union Station	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	700 N Center St	open
Hershey's Ice Cream & More	Dessert	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	17433 Creekside St	open
Hershey's Ice Cream 'n More by Scoops n' Doodles	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	303 E Main St	open
K'n'J Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	439 E Main St	open
Lagrange Tavern	Restaurant (service type not stated)		120 E Main St	open
LaGrange Village Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	118 Public Sq	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	550 N Center St	open
Michelles Cafe	Casual dining	American	548 N Center St	open
Pheasant Run Inn	Bar		1 Pheasant Run Dr	open
Romeo's Pizza Romeo's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	544 N Center St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	109 Public Square 2	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	109 Public Sq	open
The Bulldog Pub and Grille - Lagrange, OH	Bar · Casual dining	British / Irish pub food	108 E Main St	open
The Depot	Bar		700 N Center St	open
The Lucky Penny Café	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · Breakfast	100 US Grant St	open
The Run Grille & Bar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	1 Pheasant Run Dr	open
Cawley's Cafe (in Iga)	Coffee shop	Coffee	540 N Center St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	4	3	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	7	5	3	1	1	2	NAICS1997
1999	8	5	3	1	1	3	NAICS1997
2000	10	7	3	2	2	3	NAICS1997
2001	8	6	2	2	2	2	NAICS1997
2002	9	8	2	3	3	1	NAICS1997
2003	10	9	3	3	3	1	NAICS2002
2004	11	10	3	4	3	1	NAICS2002
2005	13	11	2	6	3	2	NAICS2002
2006	15	14	4	7	3	1	NAICS2002
2007	15	13	4	7	2	2	NAICS2002
2008	13	11	3	6	2	2	NAICS2007
2009	12	11	5	4	2	1	NAICS2007
2010	12	11	5	5	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	15	14	7	5	2	1	NAICS2007
2012	10	10	4	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	8	8	2	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	5	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	6	6	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	6	6	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	9	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	15	14	6	6	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	13	12	6	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 44050. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
44044	4.6 mi	13	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.