BMIE Market 44081

Lake County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,971 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±287 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,636 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±143 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,088 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,677 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$96,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,056 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$872 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±55 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$242,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,800 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	20.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	6 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 44081
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	2.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+50.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	8 (range 7–9) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.77) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	71 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	71 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	77 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	62 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 44081. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.77, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	70.7	71	40%	+28.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	77	77	35%	+27.0
Market Momentum Score	62.0	62	25%	+15.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,971	65	40%	+26.2
Median household income (ACS)	96,500	79	40%	+31.4
Households (ACS)	2,636	65	20%	+13.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	35%	+28.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.6	78	25%	+19.4
Population (ACS)	6,971	65	20%	+13.1
Median household income (ACS)	96,500	79	20%	+15.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	30%	+24.7
20-year restaurant growth	100	82	20%	+16.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (20)

By cuisine

American 2 · Burgers 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Bakery 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Dessert 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Pizza 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 11 · Bar 4 · Dessert 3 · Bakery 1 · Casual dining 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Quick service 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
3759 Center Road Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3759 Center Rd	open
Break by the Lake	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · Hot dogs	2815 Perry Park Rd	open
Checkers Drive-In Checkers and Rally's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	3858 N Ridge Rd	open
Cool Chix Holdings Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3564 S Ridge Rd	open
cruisin' coneheads	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	3266 N Ridge Rd	open
Doc Howard's Distillery	Winery / distillery / taproom		3645 Ln Rd Ext STE 203	open
Georgio's Oven Fresh Pizza Co	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2816 N Ridge Rd	open
Halcyon Ledges	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	4291 S Ridge Rd	open
James Tea	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea	2885 Niagra Ave # 2	open
Just Wing’n It	Food truck		3564 S Ridge Rd	open
King Kone	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	3266 N Ridge Rd	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	5068 N Ridge Rd	open
Mr Lee's Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		3564 S Ridge Rd	open
N R H Bad Dog Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4706 N Ridge Rd	open
Sammy K's Steak House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	4706 N Ridge Rd	open
Taverne of Perry	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4706 N Ridge Rd	open
The Brass Swan Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	4146 Thompson St	open
The Wild Goose Perry	Bar		3759 Center Rd	open
thirsty cactus	Bar		2923 N Ridge Rd	open
Village Pub	Bar		3759 Center Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	8	4	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1995	7	3	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1996	4	1	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	5	3	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	6	3	1	1	1	3	NAICS1997
1999	5	2	1	—	1	3	NAICS1997
2000	5	2	1	—	1	3	NAICS1997
2001	3	—	—	—	—	3	NAICS1997
2002	5	2	—	2	—	3	NAICS1997
2003	6	3	2	1	—	3	NAICS2002
2004	8	4	2	2	—	3	NAICS2002
2005	8	4	1	3	—	3	NAICS2002
2006	12	8	3	3	2	3	NAICS2002
2007	10	4	1	2	1	4	NAICS2002
2008	8	4	2	1	1	2	NAICS2007
2009	7	2	1	1	—	3	NAICS2007
2010	5	2	1	1	—	2	NAICS2007
2011	7	3	1	1	1	2	NAICS2007
2012	6	3	1	1	1	2	NAICS2012
2013	7	4	1	2	1	2	NAICS2012
2014	6	4	1	2	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	6	4	1	2	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	7	4	1	2	1	2	NAICS2012
2017	7	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	9	6	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	8	6	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	8	6	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	8	6	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	10	7	3	3	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	6	3	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 44081. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
44057	4.3 mi	35	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.