BMIE Market 44420

Trumbull County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	15,293 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±973 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,568 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±368 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	15,429 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	7,189 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$61,707 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,056 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$812 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±73 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$121,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,379 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	14.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	23 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 44420
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	13.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+64.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+27.8% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+21.1% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+21.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	20 (range 13–26) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	64 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	60 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	59 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	76 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 44420. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	59.6	60	40%	+23.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	59.4	59	35%	+20.8
Market Momentum Score	76.4	76	25%	+19.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	15,293	77	40%	+30.8
Median household income (ACS)	61,707	33	40%	+13.1
Households (ACS)	6,568	78	20%	+15.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	27.8	69	35%	+24.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	15.0	53	25%	+13.1
Population (ACS)	15,293	77	20%	+15.4
Median household income (ACS)	61,707	33	20%	+6.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	64.3	93	50%	+46.3
10-year restaurant growth	27.8	69	30%	+20.8
20-year restaurant growth	21.1	46	20%	+9.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (43)

By cuisine

American 12 · Italian 7 · Dessert 5 · Pizza 5 · Bakery 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Burgers 2 · Coffee 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Mexican 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Juice / smoothies 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 20 · Bar 12 · Casual dining 11 · Quick service 7 · Dessert 6 · Bakery 5 · Coffee shop 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Café 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Alumni Inn	Bar		346 S Market St	open
Amen Corner	Bar · Casual dining	Italian	20 W Main St	open
Anita Marie's	Restaurant (service type not stated)		211 Trumbull Ave	open
Big Daddy's Diner and Movie Emporium	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1454 Marlane Dr	open
Bruster's Real Ice Cream Bruster's Real Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1300 N State St	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	322 S State St	open
Canterino Sports Bar and Grill	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Pizza · American	1008 N State St	open
Chesty's Blue Collar Tavern	Casual dining · Bar		20 S State St	open
Cocca's Pizza Cocca's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	400 N State St	open
Cordials	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Pizza	2695 W Liberty St	open
Daffins Candy	Dessert		39 W Liberty St	open
Dairy Queen (Treat) Dairy Queen	Dessert · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	201 S State St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	2720 Salt Springs Road	open
El Hefe \| Mexican	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	30 N State St	open
Fire Grill BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	30 N State St	open
Frediberto’s Mexican Food®️ Fredibertos Mexican Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	420 S State St	open
Funny Farm Comedy Club	Bar		1620 Motor Inn Dr	open
Girard Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	44 W Liberty St	open
Iron Mann Grille	Casual dining · Bar	American	1762 N State St	open
Iron Skillet Iron Skillet	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1 Petro Pl	open
Italian Fraternal Home	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	33 W Wilson Ave	open
Jib Jab Hot Dog Shoppe	Casual dining	Hot dogs · American	313 S State St	open
Katie's Korner Homemade Ice Cream Katie's Korner Homemade Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1105 Tibbetts Wick Rd	open
Lower Girard Lake	Bar		660 Tibbetts Wick Rd	open
Marco's Pizza Marco's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	803 N State St	open
Margherita's Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Italian	728 N State St	open
Master's Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar		1675 Trumbull Ave	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	2724 Salt Springs Rd	open
Melfi & Santangelo	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Italian · Sandwiches · Bakery	909 N State St	open
Noble Bakes	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	540 Secrist Ln	open
Olguns	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	11 W Liberty St	open
Petro Truck Stop Girard Ohio	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American		open
Pizza Joe's Pizza Joe's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	621 N State St	open
Royal Gardens	Bar		105 W Liberty St	open
Scenna's Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1901 N State St	open
Sforza & Carmella's Catering	Food truck · Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · American	500 Churchill Rd	open
Subway	Other · Bakery	Sandwiches · Bakery	2786 Salt Springs Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	521 N State St	open
The Albatross	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	710 E Liberty St	open
The Arc Club	Bar		212 N State St	open
The Daily Grind The Daily Grind	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	824 N State St	open
The Other Place	Bar		S State st	open
Waffle House Waffle House Amman	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American · Breakfast	2725 Salt Springs Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	27	19	—	—	—	8	SIC1987
1995	25	16	—	—	—	9	SIC1987
1996	28	22	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1997	28	22	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1998	25	20	7	9	4	5	NAICS1997
1999	26	20	6	9	4	6	NAICS1997
2000	26	19	7	7	4	7	NAICS1997
2001	25	18	6	8	4	7	NAICS1997
2002	30	22	6	12	4	8	NAICS1997
2003	28	19	5	11	3	9	NAICS2002
2004	29	20	5	12	3	9	NAICS2002
2005	32	24	6	13	5	8	NAICS2002
2006	29	22	7	11	4	7	NAICS2002
2007	25	18	8	7	3	5	NAICS2002
2008	29	21	7	10	4	6	NAICS2007
2009	28	23	9	10	4	4	NAICS2007
2010	26	20	7	10	3	5	NAICS2007
2011	27	22	8	11	3	4	NAICS2007
2012	25	20	9	9	2	4	NAICS2012
2013	23	18	7	8	3	4	NAICS2012
2014	27	21	9	9	3	5	NAICS2012
2015	28	21	9	9	3	6	NAICS2012
2016	28	21	10	8	3	6	NAICS2012
2017	22	16	8	7	—	4	NAICS2017
2018	19	14	7	6	—	3	NAICS2017
2019	20	15	9	6	—	3	NAICS2017
2020	22	15	9	6	—	4	NAICS2017
2021	27	20	10	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	26	21	10	10	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	28	23	10	10	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 44420. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
44437	3.2 mi	3	2016
44510	3.3 mi	1	2000
44504	3.3 mi	3	2023
44505	4.0 mi	51	2023
44446	4.2 mi	64	2023
44509	4.3 mi	7	2023
44555	4.5 mi	1	2012
44425	4.9 mi	28	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.