BMIE Market 44509

Mahoning County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	10,562 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±948 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,893 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±493 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	11,975 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,946 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$36,570 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,198 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$751 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±91 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$57,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,603 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	5.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	7 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 44509
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	10.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-30.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-46.2% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-63.2% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-58.8% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	3 (range 1–6) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.6 per year, r² 0.77) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	34 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	45 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	39 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	7 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 44509. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.6 restaurants per year, r² 0.77, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 34 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	45.2	45	40%	+18.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	39.2	39	35%	+13.7
Market Momentum Score	7.0	7	25%	+1.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 45 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	10,562	72	40%	+28.7
Median household income (ACS)	36,570	4	40%	+1.8
Households (ACS)	4,893	74	20%	+14.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 39 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-46.2	7	35%	+2.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	6.6	86	25%	+21.4
Population (ACS)	10,562	72	20%	+14.3
Median household income (ACS)	36,570	4	20%	+0.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 7 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-30	9	50%	+4.5
10-year restaurant growth	-46.2	7	30%	+2.2
20-year restaurant growth	-63.2	2	20%	+0.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (49)

By cuisine

American 6 · Pizza 6 · Coffee 5 · Sandwiches 3 · Bakery 2 · BBQ 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Asian 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Caribbean 1 · Chinese 1 · European 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Greek 1 · Italian 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Seafood 1 · Spanish / tapas 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Vegan 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 23 · Bar 17 · Casual dining 6 · Café 4 · Quick service 3 · Bakery 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Other 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
All City Sports Bar & Grille	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		1698 Mahoning Ave	open
Briar Hill Pizza Wings And Ribs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Pizza	50 S Meridian Rd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	3525 Mahoning Ave	open
Captain Hooks	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Seafood	3212 Mahoning Ave	open
Casa Ramirez Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1578 Mahoning Ave	open
Casaloma Gardens	Casual dining · Bar		2843 Mahoning Ave	open
Cedars West End	Bar		706 Steel St	open
Corner Hideaway	Casual dining · Bar		51 N Meridian Rd	open
Cosmic Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegan	2838 Mahoning Ave	open
Dash Inn	Casual dining · Bar		2716 Mahoning Ave	open
Dickey's Lounge	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	27 N Meridian Rd	open
Dreamz Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar		1309 Salt Springs Rd	open
Dubic Palm Cafe	Bar · Café	Coffee · BBQ	301 Steel St	open
Emmanuel's Pizza & Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3212 Mahoning Ave Ste 2	open
Foxy's Restaurant and Lounge	Restaurant (service type not stated)		51 N Meridian Rd	open
Garden Café By Kravitz	Café	Coffee	123 McKinley Ave	open
Hackett's Pub	Bar · Casual dining		1597 Mahoning Ave	open
Hunan Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	1810 Mahoning Ave	open
J.B.D's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Cajun, Creole, Southern	2561 Tyrell Ave #1-12	open
Julie's Down the Street	Bar	American	3101 Mahoning Ave	open
Kitchen Abz	Restaurant (service type not stated)		50 S Meridian Rd	open
Landmark Restaurant and Bakery	Bakery	Bakery · Breakfast · American	109 S Meridian Rd	open
Little Jimmy's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3212 Mahoning Ave	open
Little Lous Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean · Latin American (other)	1544 Mahoning Ave	open
McDonald's	Quick service		3034 Mahoning Ave	open
Molly's	Bar		1309 Salt Springs Rd	open
My Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar		1830 Donald Ave	open
Open Hearth	Restaurant (service type not stated)		207 Steel St	open
P & S Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	2720 Intertech Dr	open
Periscoop Submarine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches · American	3101 Mahoning Ave	open
Pizza Joe's Pizza Joe's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	3506 Mahoning Ave	open
Ranch House	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2328 Mahoning Ave	open
Rust Belt Brewing Co	Brewery / taproom · Bar		1744 Overlook Ave	open
S-N-K Double Deuce	Bar		1666 Mahoning Ave	open
S. T. Sales, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1195 Salt Springs Rd	open
Strikers	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2617 Mahoning Ave	open
SUBWAY	Other	Sandwiches	3212 Mahoning Ave	open
Tangier Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3312 Mahoning Ave	open
The Brown Bag Bar and Bistro	Bar		2927 Mahoning Ave	open
The Rose Garden Café	Café	Coffee	123 McKinley Ave	open
TopNotchmeals	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		2838 Mahoning Ave	open
Trek Coffee House	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	1588 Mahoning Ave	open
Troy's Great Steaks Original Taste of Philly	Quick service	Steakhouse · Sandwiches	2626 Mahoning Ave	open
Uncle Bob's Grape Leaves	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek · German / Eastern European · European	51 N Meridian Rd	open
Vice and Virtue	Bar		40 S Meridian Rd	open
Vista	Bar		1830 Donald Ave	open
Voyager Specialty Coffee And Teas	Coffee shop	Coffee	1588 Mahoning Ave	open
West Side Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Spanish / tapas	2328 Mahoning Ave	open
West Side Pub	Bar		3502 Mahoning Ave	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	27	17	—	—	—	10	SIC1987
1995	27	17	—	—	—	10	SIC1987
1996	26	17	—	—	—	9	SIC1987
1997	27	20	—	—	—	7	SIC1987
1998	30	21	10	11	—	7	NAICS1997
1999	29	20	9	11	—	7	NAICS1997
2000	27	18	8	10	—	7	NAICS1997
2001	28	18	7	11	—	8	NAICS1997
2002	28	17	8	9	—	9	NAICS1997
2003	26	19	8	11	—	5	NAICS2002
2004	27	18	6	11	1	7	NAICS2002
2005	28	19	6	12	1	8	NAICS2002
2006	27	19	6	11	2	7	NAICS2002
2007	29	19	8	10	1	9	NAICS2002
2008	30	20	9	8	3	9	NAICS2007
2009	26	16	8	7	1	9	NAICS2007
2010	20	12	5	7	—	7	NAICS2007
2011	18	10	5	5	—	6	NAICS2007
2012	21	11	5	6	—	9	NAICS2012
2013	23	13	6	7	—	8	NAICS2012
2014	22	12	6	6	—	8	NAICS2012
2015	21	10	4	5	1	9	NAICS2012
2016	22	10	4	6	—	10	NAICS2012
2017	21	12	5	7	—	8	NAICS2017
2018	19	10	5	5	—	8	NAICS2017
2019	20	11	6	5	—	8	NAICS2017
2020	16	9	6	3	—	6	NAICS2017
2021	12	7	4	3	—	4	NAICS2017
2022	13	7	4	3	—	5	NAICS2022
2023	13	7	3	4	—	5	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 44509. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
44510	1.5 mi	1	2000
44504	2.4 mi	3	2023
44555	2.5 mi	1	2012
44503	2.6 mi	15	2023
44511	2.9 mi	15	2023
44507	3.3 mi	5	2023
44515	3.4 mi	87	2023
44437	3.5 mi	3	2016
44502	3.6 mi	8	2023
44506	3.9 mi	2	2001
44420	4.3 mi	23	2023
44505	4.3 mi	51	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.