BMIE Market 44511

Mahoning County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	18,909 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,320 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	8,693 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±578 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	19,672 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	9,889 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$56,880 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,345 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	44.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$786 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±82 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$125,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,452 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	7.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	15 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 44511
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	3.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+66.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+114.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+0.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	15 (range 13–18) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.67) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	71 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	59 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	72 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	88 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 44511. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.67, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	58.6	59	40%	+23.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	71.8	72	35%	+25.1
Market Momentum Score	88.5	88	25%	+22.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	18,909	80	40%	+32.2
Median household income (ACS)	56,880	25	40%	+9.8
Households (ACS)	8,693	83	20%	+16.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	66.7	87	35%	+30.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	7.9	81	25%	+20.2
Population (ACS)	18,909	80	20%	+16.1
Median household income (ACS)	56,880	25	20%	+4.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 88 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	50	90	50%	+45.1
10-year restaurant growth	66.7	87	30%	+26.2
20-year restaurant growth	114.3	86	20%	+17.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (29)

By cuisine

Pizza 7 · Dessert 5 · Bakery 4 · Coffee 4 · Italian 3 · Burgers 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · American 1 · Chinese 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Mexican 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 12 · Dessert 6 · Bakery 5 · Bar 5 · Coffee shop 4 · Quick service 4 · Casual dining 3 · Café 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Catering 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Food truck 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Belleria - Cornersburg	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3460 S Meridian Rd	open
Belleria Pizza and Italian Belleria Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	3460 S Meridian Rd	open
Cerise Stone Mill Baking Company	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	3500 Canfield Rd	open
Chalet	Bar			open
China Star	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	3415 Canfield Rd Ste 1	open
Common Goods Studio	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	2000 Canfield Rd, Top Floor, Unit C	open
Cornersburg Italian Specialties	Bakery · Catering	Bakery · Italian	3381 Canfield Rd	open
Cornersburg Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	3518 Canfield Rd #4	open
Dairy Queen Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Burgers · Ice cream / frozen desserts	3555 S Meridian Rd	open
Deep Roots Self Care Co.	Juice, smoothie, tea · Bakery	Juice / smoothies · Bakery	822 Billingsgate Ave	open
Dulce Capricho Desserts	Dessert	Dessert	914 Parkview Ave	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	3547 S Meridian Rd	open
East of Chicago Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2959 Canfield Rd	open
El Cowboy Tex Mex Grille	Casual dining · Bar	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	1739 S Raccoon Rd	open
Glenwood Grounds Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee	2906 Glenwood Ave	open
J'Spot Now	Quick service	Pizza · Chicken / wings	1260 S Schenley Ave	open
Joe’s Pasta Fresca	Food truck		3402 Canfield Rd	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	3299 Canfield Road	open
Marco's Pizza Marco's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4381 Kirk Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1709 S Raccoon Rd	open
Mr. Anthony's At The Maronitte Center	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1555 S Meridian Rd	open
Ohio Baked	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	3022 Glenwood Ave	open
Pie, Oh My!	Dessert	Dessert	3701 Glenwood Ave	open
Pizza Joes	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2000 Canfield Rd Ste 7	open
Savannah Joe's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	2915 Glenwood Ave Ste 1	open
Southern Tavern	Bar · Casual dining		1508 Glenwood Ave	open
Styx	Bar		3680 S Meridian Rd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	3500 Canfield Rd	open
The Cub Cafe	Café · Coffee shop · Bar	Coffee	2000 Canfield Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	18	15	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	13	11	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	10	8	2	4	2	1	NAICS1997
1999	10	8	1	6	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	7	6	2	2	2	1	NAICS1997
2001	10	9	2	5	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	8	5	—	4	1	3	NAICS1997
2003	9	7	1	5	1	2	NAICS2002
2004	9	7	1	5	1	2	NAICS2002
2005	9	6	1	4	1	2	NAICS2002
2006	8	6	1	4	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	8	6	1	4	1	2	NAICS2002
2008	10	7	1	4	2	3	NAICS2007
2009	8	6	1	3	2	2	NAICS2007
2010	7	6	1	3	2	1	NAICS2007
2011	9	7	1	4	2	1	NAICS2007
2012	11	9	2	5	2	1	NAICS2012
2013	11	9	1	7	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	10	8	2	5	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	11	9	2	6	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	13	11	3	7	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	11	10	—	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	10	—	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	9	9	—	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	10	10	—	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	14	12	3	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	15	13	—	9	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	18	15	3	10	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 44511. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
44507	2.2 mi	5	2023
44509	2.9 mi	7	2023
44502	3.1 mi	8	2023
44503	3.2 mi	15	2023
44512	3.4 mi	134	2023
44555	3.6 mi	1	2012
44510	3.9 mi	1	2000
44506	4.0 mi	2	2001
44515	4.1 mi	87	2023
44504	4.4 mi	3	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.