BMIE Market 44502

Mahoning County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,594 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±747 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,628 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±293 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	10,204 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,902 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$31,170 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,451 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	29.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$923 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±48 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$42,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,648 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	5.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 44502
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+14.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-52.9% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-60.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	8 (range 6–9) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	45 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	43 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	47 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	47 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 44502. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 45 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	43.0	43	40%	+17.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	46.5	47	35%	+16.3
Market Momentum Score	47.2	47	25%	+11.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 43 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,594	70	40%	+28.1
Median household income (ACS)	31,170	2	40%	+1.0
Households (ACS)	3,628	70	20%	+13.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 47 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.3	79	25%	+19.7
Population (ACS)	9,594	70	20%	+14.0
Median household income (ACS)	31,170	2	20%	+0.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 47 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	14.3	72	50%	+36.2
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	-52.9	2	20%	+0.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (47)

By cuisine

American 5 · Pizza 3 · BBQ 2 · Breakfast 2 · Coffee 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Burgers 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Korean 1 · Mexican 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Bar 27 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 19 · Quick service 8 · Casual dining 7 · Food truck 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Bakery 1 · Café 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
1323 Club	Bar		1323 South Ave	open
B & O Restaurant	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
Berto's Grill House	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck		1085 Hillman St	open
Boxcar Lounge	Bar		534 Mahoning Ave	open
Buckeye Elks Youth Dev Fund	Bar		421 North Ave	open
C Staples Bar-B-Q	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	320 Belmont Ave	open
Club Switch	Bar		221 Belmont Ave	open
ClubTwisted Ytown	Bar · Quick service		3114 South Ave	open
Coaches Bar & Grill	Bar		Sheridan	open
Crickets Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar	American	1733 E Midlothian Blvd	open
Cs Chicken Coop	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	3215 South Ave	open
East Side Civics	Bar		2929 South Ave	open
Elmton	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Pizza	586 5th Ave	open
Evergreen Tavern	Bar		2800 South Ave	open
Fatso's Bbq	Food truck		703 E Midlothian Blvd	open
Irish Bob's Pub	Bar	British / Irish pub food	3602 South Ave	open
Joe Gallagher's Lunch Bucket	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	345 Oak Hill Ave	open
Kings Court	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · BBQ · American	3229 South Ave	open
Little Millys Oven Fresh Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza	2608 South Ave	open
Lofaro's Drive-thru	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Breakfast	1570 Poland Ave	open
Marco's Pizza Marco's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2072 E Midlothian Blvd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	570 5th Ave	open
Miss Daisy's Place	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	2210 South Ave	open
Moe's P2's	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		732 Oak Hill Ave	open
Ok-Soon's Oriental Food Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Korean	1942 E Midlothian Blvd	open
Pacentrano Club	Bar		2629 Craiger Ave	open
Petri Club	Bar		3650 Shady Run Rd	open
PlantedDreatk	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea · Food truck	Juice / smoothies	2308 South Ave	open
Sam's Southern Eatery	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · Seafood · American	2705 South Ave	open
Savo Bar and Grill	Bar		2800 South Ave	open
Schwebel's Bakery Outlet Stores Schwebel's Bakery Outlet Stores	Bakery	Bakery	920 E Midlothian Blvd	open
SoSo's Lounge	Bar		232 North Ave	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Quick service · Café	Coffee	318 5th Ave	open
Steel City Bar And Grill	Casual dining · Bar		1418 E Midlothian Blvd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	830 E Midlothian Blvd	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	420 Fifth Avenue	open
Teenie's Tavern	Bar		3011 South Ave	open
The Brickhouse Tavern	Bar · Casual dining		958 E Midlothian Blvd	open
The Local Celebrity Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar		2105 South Ave	open
The Progressive Club	Bar · Quick service		2208 South Ave	open
The Rod Tavern	Bar		3726 Loveland Rd	open
Tim Hortons	Coffee shop	Coffee	224 W Spring St -Beeghly Center Ys,	open
Utopia Video Nightclub	Bar		876 E Midlothian Blvd	open
Youngstown Acme Club	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2130 South Ave	open
Youngstown Barrel & Drum	Bar		1043 Marble St	open
Youngstown Maennerchor	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		831 Mahoning Ave	open
Youngstown Mineshaft	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		1105 Poland Ave	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	32	20	—	—	—	12	SIC1987
1995	29	18	—	—	—	11	SIC1987
1996	33	19	—	—	—	14	SIC1987
1997	34	22	—	—	—	12	SIC1987
1998	34	21	9	12	—	13	NAICS1997
1999	32	18	9	9	—	13	NAICS1997
2000	28	16	7	9	—	11	NAICS1997
2001	29	16	9	7	—	12	NAICS1997
2002	30	15	7	8	—	13	NAICS1997
2003	31	17	10	7	—	13	NAICS2002
2004	27	15	6	9	—	11	NAICS2002
2005	33	20	9	10	—	11	NAICS2002
2006	26	15	3	12	—	9	NAICS2002
2007	24	15	3	12	—	8	NAICS2002
2008	23	13	2	10	1	9	NAICS2007
2009	19	12	2	9	1	6	NAICS2007
2010	16	9	2	7	—	6	NAICS2007
2011	15	10	3	7	—	4	NAICS2007
2012	11	7	2	5	—	4	NAICS2012
2013	13	8	1	7	—	5	NAICS2012
2014	13	9	1	8	—	4	NAICS2012
2015	12	8	1	7	—	4	NAICS2012
2016	12	7	1	6	—	5	NAICS2012
2017	15	8	—	7	—	7	NAICS2017
2018	14	7	—	6	—	7	NAICS2017
2019	14	8	—	6	—	6	NAICS2017
2020	14	8	—	7	—	6	NAICS2017
2021	13	8	—	6	—	5	NAICS2017
2022	13	9	3	6	—	4	NAICS2022
2023	12	8	3	5	—	4	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 44502. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
44506	1.0 mi	2	2001
44507	1.0 mi	5	2023
44503	1.2 mi	15	2023
44555	1.8 mi	1	2012
44405	2.5 mi	3	2020
44504	2.9 mi	3	2023
44511	3.1 mi	15	2023
44510	3.2 mi	1	2000
44505	3.3 mi	51	2023
44471	3.4 mi	11	2023
44509	3.6 mi	7	2023
44512	4.2 mi	134	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.