BMIE Market 44471

Mahoning County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	10,295 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±147 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,458 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±210 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	11,097 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,068 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$54,571 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3,812 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$850 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±64 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$106,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,472 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	4.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 44471
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	9.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-15.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-15.4% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-15.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-8.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	9 (range 7–12) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.44) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	39 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	51 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	41 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	15 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 44471. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.44, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 39 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	51.4	51	40%	+20.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	41.4	41	35%	+14.5
Market Momentum Score	15.4	15	25%	+3.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 51 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	10,295	71	40%	+28.5
Median household income (ACS)	54,571	21	40%	+8.4
Households (ACS)	4,458	73	20%	+14.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 41 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-15.4	16	35%	+5.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	10.7	70	25%	+17.4
Population (ACS)	10,295	71	20%	+14.3
Median household income (ACS)	54,571	21	20%	+4.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 15 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-15.4	15	50%	+7.6
10-year restaurant growth	-15.4	16	30%	+4.7
20-year restaurant growth	-15.4	15	20%	+3.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (32)

By cuisine

American 6 · Pizza 6 · Dessert 4 · Italian 4 · Coffee 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Chicken / wings 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Mexican 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Chinese 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 19 · Bar 7 · Dessert 5 · Casual dining 4 · Café 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Quick service 2 · Bakery 1 · Coffee shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
1010 Bella, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1010 Youngstown Poland Rd	open
Arby's	Quick service		704 Youngstown Poland Rd	open
Belleria Pizza & Italian Restaurant Belleria Pizza - Struthers	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1010 Youngstown Poland Rd	open
Breens Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2773 E Midlothian Blvd	open
Brier Hill Pizza & Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	161 Lowellville Rd	open
C's Waffles	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	704 Youngstown Poland Rd	open
China Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	1010 5th St	open
Dairy Queen (Treat) Dairy Queen	Dessert · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	928 Youngstown-Poland Rd	open
Dew Drop Inn	Bar		538 Spring St	open
Donavito's Restaurant & Catering Co.	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Italian	139 S Bridge St	open
Express Cuts Unlimited Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		880 Youngstown Poland Rd	open
Giannios Candy Co Inc	Dessert	Dessert	430 Youngstown-Poland Rd	open
Jims Snack Shack	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts	334 Elm St	open
La Villa Sports Bar & Grille	Bar · Casual dining	American	812 Youngstown Poland Rd	open
Lenigo Group, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		161 Lowellville Rd	open
MOINK BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	1026 5th St	open
Monk's Pub & Grub	Casual dining · Bar		56 State St	open
Pizza Joe's Pizza Joe's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	960 5th St	open
Rips Cafe	Bar · Café	German / Eastern European · Coffee	614 Youngstown-Poland Rd	open
Selah Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	130 S Bridge St	open
Senor Jalapeno	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	704 Youngstown Poland Rd	open
Senor Jalapenos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Chicken / wings	582 Youngstown Poland Rd	open
Sno castle	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	706 Youngstown Poland Rd	open
St A's Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)		100 Lowellville Rd	open
St Anthony's Society	Bar		100 Lowellville Rd	open
Struthers Nutrition	Café	Coffee	2 State St	open
Tangier Bar & Pizza	Bar · Casual dining	Pizza	880 Youngstown-Poland Rd	open
The Elmton	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Chicken / wings · American	584 5th St	open
TNT'S NU FLAVA	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	2763 E Midlothian Blvd	open
Tri One Systems Dunkin'	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Breakfast · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	289 Elm St Ste 2	open
Youngstown Pizza Company	Bar	Pizza · Italian	100 Lowellville Rd	open
Bowery Inc	Bar		2729 E Midlothian Blvd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	16	12	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1995	16	11	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1996	16	10	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1997	17	12	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1998	17	11	6	5	—	5	NAICS1997
1999	16	11	6	5	—	4	NAICS1997
2000	19	14	7	7	—	4	NAICS1997
2001	16	11	6	5	—	3	NAICS1997
2002	17	11	5	6	—	5	NAICS1997
2003	17	13	4	9	—	3	NAICS2002
2004	17	13	5	8	—	3	NAICS2002
2005	17	13	4	9	—	3	NAICS2002
2006	21	17	8	9	—	3	NAICS2002
2007	17	15	10	5	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	16	13	9	4	—	2	NAICS2007
2009	14	11	9	2	—	2	NAICS2007
2010	14	11	8	2	1	2	NAICS2007
2011	13	11	8	2	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	14	12	9	3	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	15	13	9	4	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	16	15	9	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	14	12	7	5	—	1	NAICS2012
2016	15	12	7	5	—	1	NAICS2012
2017	15	13	8	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	15	13	8	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	16	14	9	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	13	11	7	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	13	11	7	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	13	11	7	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	13	11	7	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 44471. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
44405	1.9 mi	3	2020
44436	2.9 mi	3	2022
44502	3.4 mi	8	2023
44506	3.4 mi	2	2001
44507	3.7 mi	5	2023
44514	3.9 mi	51	2023
16155	4.3 mi	—
44512	4.3 mi	134	2023
44503	4.5 mi	15	2023
44555	4.9 mi	1	2012

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.