BMIE Market 44444

Trumbull County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,220 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±591 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,446 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±341 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	10,454 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,781 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$61,441 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,713 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	50.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$758 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±35 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$145,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,708 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	41.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	14 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 44444
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	12.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+16.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+40.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+27.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-6.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	16 (range 13–19) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.54) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	61 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	55 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	60 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	70 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 44444. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.54, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	55.3	55	40%	+22.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	60.4	60	35%	+21.1
Market Momentum Score	70.5	70	25%	+17.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,220	70	40%	+27.9
Median household income (ACS)	61,441	32	40%	+12.9
Households (ACS)	4,446	73	20%	+14.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	40	77	35%	+27.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	15.2	52	25%	+13.0
Population (ACS)	9,220	70	20%	+13.9
Median household income (ACS)	61,441	32	20%	+6.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	16.7	75	50%	+37.3
10-year restaurant growth	40	77	30%	+23.1
20-year restaurant growth	27.3	50	20%	+10.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (35)

By cuisine

Coffee 5 · Pizza 5 · American 4 · Dessert 4 · Italian 4 · Breakfast 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Burgers 2 · Mexican 2 · Bakery 1 · Chinese 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 19 · Quick service 8 · Bar 6 · Dessert 4 · Café 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Bakery 2 · Casual dining 2 · Delivery-focused 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	58 E Broad St	open
Big D's Newton Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Burgers · American	327 S Milton Blvd	open
Bistro on Broad Street	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · Coffee	38 W Broad St	open
Broad Street Station Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	75 E Broad St	open
Broken Leaf Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · Breakfast	38 W Broad St	open
Cafe 534	Casual dining · Bar		115 S Milton Blvd	open
Capirano's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	119 Ridge Rd	open
Covered Bridge Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Italian	22 W Broad St #22	open
Dairy Queen Grill & Chill Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	377 W Broad St	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	8 W Broad St	open
DQ Grill & Chill DQ Grill & Chill	Quick service		377 W Broad St	open
Dunkin'	Coffee shop	Coffee	4904 State Route 5	open
Faces lounge	Bar		13 W Broad St	open
Gioninos Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	240 S Milton Blvd	open
Guns 'N Hoses Cafe and Catering	Café	American · Coffee	23 W Broad St	open
Hometown Hotdogs	Quick service		327 S Milton Blvd	open
J.a.m. Pizza Enterprises Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8 W Broad St	open
Maggies Donut Shop Newton Falls Maggies Donut Shop & Cafe	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	20 N Milton Blvd	open
Maggies Doughnuts Newton Falls Maggies Donut Shop & Cafe	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	20 Milton Blvd	open
Main Moon	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese		open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	20 N Canal St	open
Mi Amigo Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	11 W Broad St	open
Pnut Butter Cups Company CUPS Frozen Yogurt	Dessert	Dessert	2010 Milton Blvd	open
Riverview Inn	Bar		2219 W River Rd	open
Roby Lee's Restaurant & Banquet Center	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		425 Ridge Rd	open
Sam's Pizza Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2228 S Canal St	open
Sub Stop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches · American	119 Ridge Rd C	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	17 E River St	open
Synthia Suzelis Health Advocates Services, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		41 W Broad St	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	50 N Canal St	open
The Five 4's Distillery	Winery / distillery / taproom		417 N Center St	open
Tiger Den Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	96 E Broad St	open
VFW Newton Falls	Bar		433 Arlington Blvd	open
Vinny's of Newton Falls	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	425 Ridge Rd	open
Rollin' Smokes	Bar		44 W Broad St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	21	15	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1995	19	14	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1996	19	11	—	—	—	8	SIC1987
1997	22	14	—	—	—	8	SIC1987
1998	22	13	4	8	1	9	NAICS1997
1999	25	16	5	10	1	8	NAICS1997
2000	22	15	5	9	1	6	NAICS1997
2001	19	12	3	8	1	6	NAICS1997
2002	16	12	3	7	2	4	NAICS1997
2003	15	11	2	9	—	4	NAICS2002
2004	15	11	2	8	—	4	NAICS2002
2005	15	11	2	9	—	4	NAICS2002
2006	16	12	2	10	—	4	NAICS2002
2007	19	15	3	10	2	4	NAICS2002
2008	19	15	3	10	2	4	NAICS2007
2009	16	12	3	8	1	4	NAICS2007
2010	16	13	3	8	2	3	NAICS2007
2011	15	12	4	6	2	3	NAICS2007
2012	13	10	4	5	1	3	NAICS2012
2013	13	10	4	5	1	3	NAICS2012
2014	12	9	3	5	1	3	NAICS2012
2015	13	10	3	6	1	3	NAICS2012
2016	16	13	5	7	1	3	NAICS2012
2017	14	11	5	5	—	3	NAICS2017
2018	15	12	5	6	—	3	NAICS2017
2019	17	14	5	7	—	3	NAICS2017
2020	16	13	5	7	—	3	NAICS2017
2021	14	11	4	7	—	3	NAICS2017
2022	16	13	5	7	—	3	NAICS2022
2023	17	14	6	8	—	3	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 44444. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
44481	3.9 mi	13	2023
44285	4.4 mi	—

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.