BMIE Market 44452

Mahoning County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	2,602 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±426 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,087 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±211 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,167 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,270 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$61,602 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±36,276 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	57.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$732 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±339 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$256,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±81,800 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	13.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	10 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 44452
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	28.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-16.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-9.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+42.9% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+42.9% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	11 (range 8–13) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	33 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	43 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	27 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	25 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 44452. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 33 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	43.1	43	40%	+17.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	26.5	27	35%	+9.3
Market Momentum Score	24.9	25	25%	+6.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 43 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	2,602	50	40%	+19.9
Median household income (ACS)	61,602	33	40%	+13.0
Households (ACS)	1,087	51	20%	+10.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 27 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-9.1	19	35%	+6.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	38.4	14	25%	+3.5
Population (ACS)	2,602	50	20%	+9.9
Median household income (ACS)	61,602	33	20%	+6.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 25 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	50%	+7.3
10-year restaurant growth	-9.1	19	30%	+5.6
20-year restaurant growth	42.9	60	20%	+12.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (21)

By cuisine

American 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Pizza 3 · Burgers 2 · African 1 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Coffee 1 · Dessert 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Mexican 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 13 · Casual dining 6 · Bar 5 · Quick service 5 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Dessert 2 · Bakery 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Andrew G Dibacco Jr Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		11991 South Ave	open
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	11634 Market St	open
C's Waffles	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Breakfast · American	11991 South Ave	open
Dairy Queen Grill & Chill Dairy Queen	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	10067 Market St	open
Davis Management Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10860 Market St	open
Denapoli Enterprise Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10078 Market St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	11686 Market St	open
Gyro Express Bar & Grill	Juice, smoothie, tea · Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Bar	Mediterranean · Juice / smoothies · Pizza · BBQ	10125 Market St	open
Hardee’s	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	Sr 7 & Interstate 76	open
Jay's Famous Hot Dogs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs	11748 Market St	open
Jim's Roadhouse Burgers and Beef	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	11748 Market St	open
Los Gallos Mexican Restaurant and Cantina Los Gallos	Casual dining · Bar	Mexican · Latin American (other)	9159 Market St	open
North Lima Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	11995 South Ave	open
North Lima Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Pizza · American	11681 South Ave	open
Original Philly's cheesesteaks	Food truck · Quick service		11120 Market St	open
Pizza Joe's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	11740 South Ave	open
Singh Brother Restaurant Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10067 Market St	open
Smokin Gun Saloon	Bar		10826 Market St	open
Stagecoach Restaurant	Bar · Casual dining	African	10300 Market St	open
Steamers Stonewall Tavern	Casual dining · Bar		10078 Market St	open
Subway	Quick service		10727 Market Street	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	7	5	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	11	9	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	7	4	2	1	1	1	NAICS1997
1999	9	7	3	3	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	7	5	3	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	7	6	4	—	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	7	6	5	1	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	8	7	6	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	6	5	4	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	7	6	3	3	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	10	8	3	4	1	2	NAICS2002
2007	10	8	3	4	1	2	NAICS2002
2008	10	9	3	6	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	9	9	2	7	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	9	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	10	9	4	5	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	13	11	6	4	1	2	NAICS2012
2013	13	11	7	3	1	2	NAICS2012
2014	12	10	5	4	1	2	NAICS2012
2015	10	9	4	4	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	12	11	5	5	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	14	13	5	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	12	12	5	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	12	12	6	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	11	5	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	11	5	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	11	11	5	6	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	10	10	5	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 44452. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
44443	4.2 mi	4	2023
44514	4.4 mi	51	2023
44408	4.5 mi	28	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.