BMIE Market 45638
Lawrence County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 19,982 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±785 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 7,917 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±377 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 21,635 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 9,785 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $52,728 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,872 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 40.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $807 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±79 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $119,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,080 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 76.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 31 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 45638 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 12.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +19.2% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +24.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +19.2% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | -3.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 32 (range 30–35) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.61) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 59 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 56 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 56 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 67 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 45638. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.61, confidence Medium.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 59 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 56.2 | 56 | 40% | +22.5 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 55.9 | 56 | 35% | +19.6 |
| Market Momentum Score | 67.2 | 67 | 25% | +16.8 |
Consumer Market Score: 56 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 19,982 | 81 | 40% | +32.6 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 52,728 | 18 | 40% | +7.4 |
| Households (ACS) | 7,917 | 81 | 20% | +16.3 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 56 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 24 | 66 | 35% | +23.2 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 15.5 | 51 | 25% | +12.7 |
| Population (ACS) | 19,982 | 81 | 20% | +16.3 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 52,728 | 18 | 20% | +3.7 |
Market Momentum Score: 67 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 19.2 | 77 | 50% | +38.3 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 24 | 66 | 30% | +19.9 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 19.2 | 45 | 20% | +9.0 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (66)
By cuisine
American 16 · Pizza 10 · Italian 7 · Bakery 5 · Burgers 5 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 5 · Dessert 4 · Sandwiches 3 · BBQ 2 · Breakfast 2 · Mexican 2 · Asian 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Coffee 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Japanese 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Seafood 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Sushi 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 39 · Quick service 17 · Bar 15 · Casual dining 10 · Dessert 9 · Bakery 5 · Food truck 3 · Coffee shop 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A&W's Eatery | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | 301 S 3rd St | open | |
| Black Bear Bakery and Candy | Bakery · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | 225 S 2nd St | open |
| Black Belt Chiles | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other | open | ||
| Buffalo Wild Wings Buffalo Wild Wings | Bar · Casual dining | American | 1001 Ironton Hills | open |
| Coal Grove Freez-Ett | Dessert · Casual dining | Hot dogs · Ice cream / frozen desserts · American | 416 Marion Pike | open |
| Dairy Queen Dairy Queen | Quick service · Dessert | Burgers · Ice cream / frozen desserts | 719 Vernon St | open |
| DELONG'S PIZZA | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 6232 OH-93 | open |
| Double B Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 624 Park Ave | open | |
| DQ Grill & Chill DQ Grill & Chill | Quick service | 214 S 8th St | open | |
| Drifters Bar & Grill | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | 205 S 3rd St | open | |
| Frisch's Big Boy Big Boy | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers · American | 301 S 9th St | open |
| Frog Town | Casual dining · Bar | 2515 S 3rd St | open | |
| Giovanni's Pizza Giovanni's Fairborn | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 624 Park Ave | open |
| Giovanni's Pizza Giovanni's Fairborn | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 4429 OH-243 | open |
| Giovanni's Pizza of Coal Grove, OH Giovanni's Fairborn | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 631 High St | open |
| Hangar 54 Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 5197 OH-141 | open |
| Heritage Rise Homestead | Bakery | Bakery | 2026 S 6th St | open |
| Hillbilly Konk BBQ | Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ | 111 every where st. | open |
| HOP’S BEER & WINE | Bar · Casual dining | 120 McKee Dr | open | |
| Iron Diner | Casual dining | American · Breakfast | 301 S 3rd St Ste 149 | open |
| Jim Deedle's Basement Bar | Bar | 722 Chestnut St | open | |
| KFC | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 520 S 2nd St | open |
| L & J Coal Grove Inc | Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 118 Marion Pike | open |
| Lewis Household Bar and Grill | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 54 Private Drive 50 | open | |
| Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 502 S 4th St | open |
| Long John Silver's Long John Silver's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood | 810 S 3rd St | open |
| Marco's Pizza Marco's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 525 S 3rd St | open |
| Marlow Bar | Bar | 1619 S 3rd St | open | |
| Matney's Wood Fired Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · American | open | |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 1001 E Ring Rd | open |
| McDonald's | Quick service | 1001 E Ring Rd | open | |
| Melini Italian Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Italian · American | 124 S 2nd St | open |
| Ming Moon | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 124 N 2nd St | open |
| Ms Kitty's Auger Inn Hieronimus,LLC | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | American | 2324 S 3rd St | open |
| Murphy's Pub | Bar | 1810 S 3rd St | open | |
| Muth Lumber Co | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 1301 Adams Ln | open | |
| Ninety-Three Creekside | Coffee shop | Coffee | 4216 OH-93 | open |
| Off the Rails | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck | 102 Vernon St | open | |
| Patties & Pints | Casual dining · Bar | American | 211 Adams St | open |
| Peddler's Home Cooking | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 2225 S 3rd St | open |
| Pizza Hut Pizza Hut | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 621 Park Avenue Lawrence | open |
| Poor Michael's Laid Back Bar | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2704 N 2nd St | open | |
| Rax Rax | Quick service | Sandwiches · American | 2250 S 3rd St | open |
| Shake Shoppe | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 115 S 8th St | open |
| shortys bar | Bar | 2515 S 3rd St | open | |
| Sister's Kreationz | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 1426 S 3rd St | open | |
| Skeeto's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Pizza | 3449 State Route 141 | open |
| SoLoaded LLC. | Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2015 S 5th St | open | |
| Somewhere in Thyme | Juice, smoothie, tea | Tea / bubble tea | 71 Township Road 317 | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 323 Marion Pike Suite #3 | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 1021 Ironton Hills Dr A-5 | open |
| Sugar & Spice Sweets To Go | Bakery · Dessert · Delivery-focused | Bakery · Dessert | 823 Marion Pike | open |
| Taco Bell Taco Bell | Quick service | Mexican | 1065 Ironton Hill Drive | open |
| Tanks Tavern | Bar | 312 S 3rd St | open | |
| The Armory Smokehouse | Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American | 920 Vernon St | open |
| The Cranky Baker | Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | 506 Lane St | open |
| The Depot | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi · Asian · American | 124 Bobby Bare Blvd | open |
| The Fuzzy Duck | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 100 Center St | open | |
| The Red Bow Bakery | Bakery · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | 2506 S 12th St | open |
| The Shakery | Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Ice cream / frozen desserts · American | 1625 Liberty Ave | open |
| Toro Loco Mexican Restaurant Toro Loco Mexican Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other) | 201 S 3rd St | open |
| Tudor's Biscuit World Tudor's Biscuit World | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Breakfast · American | 602 Park Ave | open |
| Twice But Nice 23’ | Bar | 303 Park Ave | open | |
| Vfw | Bar · Quick service | 3026 S 3rd St | open | |
| Wendy's Wendy's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 201 Marion Pike | open |
| Wendy's Wendy's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 100 N 4th St | open |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 39 | 32 | — | — | — | 7 | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 39 | 34 | — | — | — | 5 | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 36 | 31 | — | — | — | 5 | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 37 | 32 | — | — | — | 5 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 38 | 31 | 9 | 20 | 2 | 5 | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 38 | 31 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 6 | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 34 | 26 | 9 | 16 | 1 | 6 | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 30 | 24 | 8 | 15 | — | 4 | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 31 | 26 | 8 | 18 | — | 4 | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 30 | 26 | 8 | 17 | 1 | 3 | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 33 | 29 | 9 | 19 | 1 | 3 | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 31 | 27 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 4 | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 32 | 28 | 6 | 21 | 1 | 3 | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 36 | 31 | 12 | 18 | 1 | 4 | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 35 | 30 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 4 | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 36 | 29 | 12 | 17 | — | 4 | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 33 | 27 | 9 | 18 | — | 4 | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 32 | 26 | 7 | 19 | — | 4 | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 28 | 23 | 7 | 16 | — | 3 | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 30 | 25 | 8 | 17 | — | 3 | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 33 | 28 | 10 | 16 | 2 | 3 | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 30 | 26 | 9 | 15 | 2 | 3 | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 27 | 24 | 9 | 14 | 1 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 30 | 27 | 7 | 20 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 30 | 26 | 6 | 20 | — | 3 | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 33 | 29 | 9 | 19 | — | 3 | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 31 | 28 | 9 | 19 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 32 | 30 | 11 | 19 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 31 | 29 | 10 | 18 | — | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 33 | 31 | 9 | 20 | — | — | NAICS2022 |