BMIE Market 45680

Lawrence County, Ohio · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	11,548 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±653 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,691 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±325 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	13,074 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,690 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$54,523 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,663 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$769 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±107 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$164,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,298 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	34.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	17 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 45680
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+6.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+6.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-19.1% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+41.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	16 (range 15–18) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.11) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	51 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	52 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	50 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	49 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 45680. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.11, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Ohio and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 989, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 51 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	52.2	52	40%	+20.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	50.0	50	35%	+17.5
Market Momentum Score	49.5	49	25%	+12.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	11,548	73	40%	+29.2
Median household income (ACS)	54,523	21	40%	+8.4
Households (ACS)	4,691	73	20%	+14.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 50 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	6.3	51	35%	+17.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	14.7	54	25%	+13.4
Population (ACS)	11,548	73	20%	+14.6
Median household income (ACS)	54,523	21	20%	+4.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 49 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	6.3	63	50%	+31.5
10-year restaurant growth	6.3	51	30%	+15.2
20-year restaurant growth	-19.1	14	20%	+2.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (30)

By cuisine

Pizza 5 · American 4 · Burgers 3 · Italian 3 · Mexican 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Bakery 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Chinese 2 · Dessert 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Asian 1 · Breakfast 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Coffee 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Seafood 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 20 · Quick service 13 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Bar 1 · Café 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
7-Up of South Point	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2531 County Road 1	open
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	229 County Road 406	open
Arby's Arby's	Quick service	Sandwiches	229 COUNTY ROAD, #406	open
Bellacino's Pizza and Grinders Bellacino's Pizza and Grinders	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	214 Collins Ave	open
Bob Evans Bob Evans	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Breakfast	103 CR-406	open
Casa Grande (South Point)	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	47 Township Rd 1429 W	open
Giovanni's Pizza Giovanni's Fairborn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	302 4th St W	open
GR8 Pies	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea	Bakery · Juice / smoothies	214 Collins Ave	open
Granny Kountry Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Chinese	132 Co Rd 450	open
Guthrie’s Golden Fried Chicken Fingers Guthrie’s Tri-State	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	330 Sandusky Rd N	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	413 County Road 406	open
Kindred Roots	Dessert	Dessert	113 Roberts Dr	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	348 Co Rd 410	open
Long John Silver's Long John Silver's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	209 Co Rd 406	open
M&H Concessions	Food truck		31 Private Drive 211	open
Maria’s Junkfood Junkies	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	106 4th St W	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	295 County Rd	open
McDonald's	Quick service		354 Private Drive 288	open
Paul’s Bar & Grill	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		1459 County Road 1	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service	Pizza · Italian	294 County Road 120 South Suite 4A	open
Ponderosa	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	261 County Road 406	open
Smalls Sliders Smalls Sliders	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	39 Township Rd 1429 E	open
Snak Shak	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	American	305 Solida Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	330 County Road 276	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	348 County Rd 410 Unit 2	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	325 CR-406	open
The Pizza Shoppe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	210 Solida Rd	open
Tres Hermanos Nunez Tres Hermanos Nunez - Grayson	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	162 Private Dr	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	380 County Road 410	open
YUMMY EXPRESS	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Japanese · Chinese	348 Co Rd 410	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	14	12	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	14	12	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	15	13	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	15	12	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	14	12	4	8	—	2	NAICS1997
1999	16	14	5	9	—	2	NAICS1997
2000	17	15	6	9	—	2	NAICS1997
2001	16	14	5	8	1	2	NAICS1997
2002	17	16	5	11	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	22	21	6	14	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	19	17	5	12	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	20	18	5	13	—	2	NAICS2002
2006	20	20	7	13	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	19	18	7	11	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	14	14	3	11	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	16	16	4	12	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	15	15	4	11	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	15	15	4	10	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	15	15	4	11	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	17	16	4	12	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	16	15	4	11	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	15	15	4	11	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	14	14	4	10	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	15	15	4	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	16	16	4	12	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	16	16	5	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	14	14	3	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	15	15	—	13	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	16	16	3	13	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	17	17	3	14	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 45680. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
25507	4.9 mi	6	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.