BMIE Market 48609

Saginaw County, Michigan · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	11,966 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±429 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,262 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±224 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	12,461 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,411 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$78,218 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,816 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	49.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$929 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±80 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$170,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,826 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	44.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	17 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 48609
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	12.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+6.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+41.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+13.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+183.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	21 (range 18–24) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.79) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	68 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	63 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 48609. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.79, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Michigan and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 887, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	68.2	68	40%	+27.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	67.8	68	35%	+23.7
Market Momentum Score	63.1	63	25%	+15.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	11,966	73	40%	+29.3
Median household income (ACS)	78,218	60	40%	+23.9
Households (ACS)	5,262	75	20%	+15.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	41.7	78	35%	+27.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	14.2	56	25%	+13.9
Population (ACS)	11,966	73	20%	+14.7
Median household income (ACS)	78,218	60	20%	+11.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	6.3	63	50%	+31.5
10-year restaurant growth	41.7	78	30%	+23.4
20-year restaurant growth	13.3	41	20%	+8.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (36)

By cuisine

American 7 · Burgers 5 · Asian 3 · Coffee 3 · Dessert 3 · Chicken / wings 2 · Chinese 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Mexican 2 · Pizza 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Bakery 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Italian 1 · Japanese 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 25 · Quick service 9 · Bar 7 · Casual dining 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Dessert 3 · Bakery 2 · Café 2 · Brewery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A&W Restaurant A&W Restaurants	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Burgers · American	8130 Gratiot Rd	open
Bob Evans	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8466 Gratiot Rd	open
Coast	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	British / Irish pub food	7734 Gratiot Rd	open
Cold Stone Creamery Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee · Dessert	8099 Gratiot Rd	open
Crooked Creek Investments	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9387 Gratiot Rd	open
Culver's Culver's	Quick service	Burgers · American	8100 Gratiot Road	open
Eudici's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	6893 Gratiot Rd	open
Gabby's Pub & Grill	Casual dining · Bar	American · Burgers	3002 S Graham Rd	open
Goodman Foods Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7340 Gratiot Rd	open
Great Lakes Ice Cream Company	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	7647 Gratiot Rd	open
Hammered Harry's Saginaw	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	8845 Gratiot Rd Ste A	open
Hill's Tavern	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		7304 Gratiot Rd	open
House of Fortune Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	7770 Gratiot Rd	open
Jimmy John's	Quick service		7834 Gratiot Rd	open
JJ's Roadhouse	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	9620 Gratiot Rd	open
Lee's Garden Restaurant, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7400 Gratiot Rd	open
Lee's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	7400 Gratiot Rd	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	8015 Gratiot Rd	open
Live Oak Coffeehouse Live Oak Coffeehouse	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	7194 Gratiot Rd	open
Loggers Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		1215 S River Rd	open
Lorjett Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7734 Gratiot Rd	open
Los Cabos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	7467 Gratiot Rd	open
Mary's Creative Cakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	7075 Gratiot Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	7778 Gratiot Ave	open
Pho Asian Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	8466A Gratiot Rd	open
Rounders Poker Room	Bar		9289 Gratiot Rd	open
Smooth Delivery Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6893 Gratiot Rd	open
Sporty's Wing Shack and Smoke House - Saginaw	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	9620 Gratiot Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	7868 Gratiot Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	7210 Gratiot Rd	open
Sushi 'n	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese	7395 Gratiot Rd	open
Swan Valley Banquet Center	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9521 Highland Green Dr	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	8030 Gratiot Rd	open
the Roadhouse	Bar		Gratiot Rd	open
Tony's of Shields	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Sandwiches · American · Steakhouse	7340 Gratiot Rd	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	7945 Gratiot Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	8	6	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	13	12	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	15	11	6	5	—	2	NAICS1997
1999	18	15	6	7	2	2	NAICS1997
2000	15	12	5	6	1	2	NAICS1997
2001	19	14	6	6	2	4	NAICS1997
2002	12	10	4	6	—	2	NAICS1997
2003	16	15	8	7	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	16	14	7	6	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	16	14	6	7	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	16	15	7	7	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	17	15	8	6	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	19	17	10	6	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	16	14	5	8	1	1	NAICS2007
2010	18	16	7	8	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	18	15	6	8	1	2	NAICS2007
2012	16	13	6	7	—	2	NAICS2012
2013	16	12	6	6	—	3	NAICS2012
2014	20	15	6	8	1	4	NAICS2012
2015	18	14	6	8	—	3	NAICS2012
2016	18	14	6	8	—	3	NAICS2012
2017	21	15	7	8	—	5	NAICS2017
2018	21	16	8	8	—	4	NAICS2017
2019	22	17	8	9	—	4	NAICS2017
2020	23	17	8	9	—	4	NAICS2017
2021	23	17	7	10	—	4	NAICS2017
2022	23	17	7	9	—	4	NAICS2022
2023	24	17	6	10	—	5	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 48609. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
48638	3.8 mi	10	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.