BMIE Market 48638

Saginaw County, Michigan · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	12,875 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,032 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,910 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±439 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	12,922 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	6,281 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$69,459 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,374 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$949 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±47 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$172,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,116 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	6.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	10 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 48638
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+42.9% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+11.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+233.3% DERIVED: 2004 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	9 (range 7–10) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.00) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	64 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	64 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	76 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 48638. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.00, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Michigan and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 887, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	63.6	64	40%	+25.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	63.7	64	35%	+22.3
Market Momentum Score	75.7	76	25%	+18.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	12,875	74	40%	+29.8
Median household income (ACS)	69,459	46	40%	+18.4
Households (ACS)	5,910	77	20%	+15.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	11.1	55	35%	+19.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	7.8	81	25%	+20.3
Population (ACS)	12,875	74	20%	+14.9
Median household income (ACS)	69,459	46	20%	+9.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 76 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	42.9	88	50%	+55.1
10-year restaurant growth	11.1	55	30%	+20.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (25)

By cuisine

American 5 · Bakery 4 · Coffee 3 · Italian 2 · Pizza 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · Japanese 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 12 · Bar 7 · Casual dining 6 · Bakery 4 · Café 3 · Other 2 · Catering 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Dessert 1 · Food truck 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Beef 'O' Brady's Beef 'O' Brady's Fern Creek	Bar · Casual dining	American	4880 Gratiot Rd Bldg A Suite #5-7	open
Centro Grille	Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	4882 Gratiot Rd	open
Chan's Garden Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	1951 N Center Rd	open
Coty's Landing	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	777 Midland Rd	open
E-Man’s Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	230 N Center Rd	open
El Paso Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican · Latin American (other)	4882 Gratiot Rd	open
GGS Bar and Grill	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		4142 W Michigan Ave	open
Hokkaido Japanese Steak and Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Steakhouse	1818 Lawndale Rd	open
Italia Cucina Familiare	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	4882 Gratiot Rd	open
Legends	Casual dining · Bar		4142 W Michigan Ave	open
Levi's Food and Spirits	Casual dining · Bar	American	5800 Brockway Rd	open
Makin Bacon	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service		4886 W Michigan Ave	open
Miles Market	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Bakery	6235 Gratiot Rd	open
Miller On Hamilton Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5525 Colony Dr N	open
Morse Beer Garden	Bar		1624 Cranbrook Dr	open
Sips 476	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee	6235 Gratiot Rd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	5825 Brockway Rd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	4880 Gratiot Rd Ste A-1	open
Sullivan's Food and Spirits	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	5235 Gratiot Rd	open
Sweet Creation Bakeshop	Bakery	Bakery	1375 Lathrup Ave	open
Tim's Tony's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	234 N Center Rd	open
Travelin' Tom's Coffee of Saginaw Travelin' Tom's Coffee	Food truck · Dessert · Catering	Dessert	Services Available In:	open
Travelin' Tom's Coffee of the Hills	Café	Coffee	5856 Birchcrest Dr # A	open
Walmart Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	5825 Brockway Rd	open
Spencer's Route 46 Saginaw	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5530 Gratiot Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2004	4	3	3	—	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	3	2	2	—	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	8	7	5	2	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	11	9	7	1	1	2	NAICS2007
2009	10	8	6	—	2	2	NAICS2007
2010	12	11	8	—	3	1	NAICS2007
2011	9	9	8	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	10	9	8	—	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	10	9	8	—	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	10	9	8	—	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	9	9	7	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	9	9	8	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	10	9	8	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	10	7	6	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	9	7	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	12	8	6	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	9	7	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	13	9	7	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	14	10	8	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 48638. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
48602	2.2 mi	33	2023
48603	2.8 mi	61	2023
48609	3.8 mi	17	2023
48607	4.3 mi	4	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.