BMIE Market 48732

Bay County, Michigan · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	11,340 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±402 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,080 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±322 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	11,483 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,304 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$57,903 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,454 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$840 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±73 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$169,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,462 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	24.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	10 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 48732
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-23.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-23.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-50.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-47.4% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	9 (range 8–10) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.71) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	40 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	54 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	43 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	11 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 48732. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.71, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Michigan and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 887, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 40 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	54.4	54	40%	+21.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	43.4	43	35%	+15.2
Market Momentum Score	10.7	11	25%	+2.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	11,340	73	40%	+29.1
Median household income (ACS)	57,903	26	40%	+10.5
Households (ACS)	5,080	75	20%	+14.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 43 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-23.1	13	35%	+4.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.8	77	25%	+19.2
Population (ACS)	11,340	73	20%	+14.5
Median household income (ACS)	57,903	26	20%	+5.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 11 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-23.1	12	50%	+6.0
10-year restaurant growth	-23.1	13	30%	+3.8
20-year restaurant growth	-50	4	20%	+0.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (25)

By cuisine

American 3 · Burgers 3 · Coffee 3 · Dessert 3 · Asian 2 · Chinese 2 · Mexican 2 · Bakery 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 10 · Casual dining 7 · Quick service 7 · Bar 6 · Dessert 4 · Coffee shop 3 · Bakery 2 · Café 2 · Other 2 · Catering 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
American Gourmet Of Snacks, Llc	Other · Dessert · Quick service	Dessert	1211 Woodside Ave	open
Apex Food Syetems, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3111 Center Ave	open
B & D Creamery	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea · Casual dining	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies · American	692 W Center Rd	open
Big Boy Restaurants	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	3111 Center Ave	open
Burger King	Quick service		2706 Center Ave	open
Doublewide Bar. Essexville, MI	Bar · Casual dining			open
El Mexicano	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	3593 Center Ave	open
Excited Goat Coffee Company	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1480 W Center Rd	open
Goaty’s Subs & Grub	Coffee shop · Casual dining · Café	Coffee · American	1480 W Center Rd	open
Hungry Howie's Hungry Howie's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	3200 Center Ave	open
K & S Center Road Bar	Bar · Casual dining		632 W Center Rd	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	2702 Center Ave	open
Management Services Of Mid Michigan Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		863 N Pine Rd Ste E	open
Mandarin House Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	3000 Center Ave	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1495 W Center Rd	open
Miller's Bar And Grill :)	Casual dining · Bar		7 Sovey Ct	open
O'Larskey's Backyard Patio Pub	Bar · Casual dining		807 Maple St	open
Petit 4 Pastry	Bakery · Dessert · Catering	Bakery · Dessert	1600 Woodside Ave	open
Shot N Shell Bar	Bar		201 Woodside Ave	open
Silver Palace	Casual dining · Bar		1500 Woodside Ave	open
Stars Chinese Gourmet Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	2807 Center Ave	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	1512 W Center Rd	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	1555 W Center Ave	open
Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	2906 Center Ave	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	2640 Center Ave	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	22	19	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	21	18	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1996	20	16	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1997	24	22	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	26	23	9	12	2	2	NAICS1997
1999	23	19	7	10	2	2	NAICS1997
2000	20	18	6	10	2	1	NAICS1997
2001	18	16	6	9	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	21	18	5	13	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	25	20	5	14	1	2	NAICS2002
2004	26	22	4	16	2	1	NAICS2002
2005	25	21	5	15	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	24	19	4	15	—	2	NAICS2002
2007	21	14	4	10	—	4	NAICS2002
2008	23	16	4	11	1	4	NAICS2007
2009	21	15	4	10	1	3	NAICS2007
2010	22	13	5	8	—	5	NAICS2007
2011	23	15	5	10	—	5	NAICS2007
2012	21	13	2	10	—	5	NAICS2012
2013	21	13	2	10	—	5	NAICS2012
2014	20	12	2	9	—	5	NAICS2012
2015	21	13	3	9	—	5	NAICS2012
2016	20	13	3	8	1	4	NAICS2012
2017	20	13	4	8	—	4	NAICS2017
2018	21	13	3	9	—	5	NAICS2017
2019	18	12	3	9	—	3	NAICS2017
2020	17	11	3	8	—	3	NAICS2017
2021	16	11	3	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	15	10	—	8	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	15	10	—	9	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 48732. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
48708	4.9 mi	49	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.