BMIE Market 53103

Waukesha County, Wisconsin · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	3,762 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±453 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,561 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±262 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,724 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,418 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$137,083 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±29,579 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	49.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,125 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±175 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$397,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±50,183 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	12.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	6 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 53103
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	16.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-25.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-25.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	7 (range 5–9) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.18) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	53 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	71 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	55 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	21 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 53103. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.18, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Wisconsin and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 685, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 53 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	71.5	71	40%	+28.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54.7	55	35%	+19.1
Market Momentum Score	21.4	21	25%	+5.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	3,762	56	40%	+22.4
Median household income (ACS)	137,083	94	40%	+37.7
Households (ACS)	1,561	57	20%	+11.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	16.0	49	25%	+12.4
Population (ACS)	3,762	56	20%	+11.2
Median household income (ACS)	137,083	94	20%	+18.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 21 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-25	11	50%	+5.4
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (12)

By cuisine

American 2 · BBQ 1 · Burgers 1 · Coffee 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 8 · Bar 6 · Casual dining 6 · Quick service 3 · Café 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
All Occasions Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	W224S8424 Industrial Dr	open
Blue Heron	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		W229 S8300 WI-164	open
Chubby's Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Coffee · American	S91W22985 Milwaukee Ave	open
Crossroads pizza and subs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	W229S8680 Big Bend Dr	open
Culver's of Big Bend, Wisconsin	Quick service			open
Kelly's Bleachers Big Bend	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		W233S7260 Vernon Ln	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	S71w23460 W National Ave	open
Papa Stache	Bar · Casual dining		W228S9300 Big Bend Dr	open
Richy's	Bar		S91W22920 Milwaukee Ave	open
Sonoma Way Saloon	Bar · Casual dining		S69W22055 Sonoma Way	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	W National Ave	open
Zaners Club Shamrock	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	W230 S8745 Clark St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	11	8	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	10	7	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1996	10	7	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	8	5	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	8	5	2	2	1	3	NAICS1997
1999	9	6	2	3	1	3	NAICS1997
2000	8	7	3	3	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	9	7	3	3	1	2	NAICS1997
2002	8	7	3	4	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	9	6	2	4	—	3	NAICS2002
2004	13	8	2	5	1	4	NAICS2002
2005	11	7	2	5	—	4	NAICS2002
2006	9	7	3	4	—	2	NAICS2002
2007	9	7	4	3	—	2	NAICS2002
2008	9	7	4	3	—	2	NAICS2007
2009	9	6	4	2	—	3	NAICS2007
2010	10	6	4	2	—	4	NAICS2007
2011	11	8	6	2	—	3	NAICS2007
2012	8	6	4	2	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	8	6	4	2	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	7	5	3	2	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	7	5	3	2	—	1	NAICS2012
2016	7	5	3	2	—	1	NAICS2012
2017	9	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	10	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	9	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	9	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	9	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	8	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	8	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 53103. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
53150	4.3 mi	36	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.