BMIE Market 53527

Dane County, Wisconsin · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	11,924 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±253 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,874 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±277 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,963 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,739 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$133,883 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±23,011 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	39.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,505 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±192 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$444,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±22,123 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	35.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	17 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 53527
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+30.8% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+30.8% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+142.9% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+240.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	19 (range 17–21) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.75) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	78 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	82 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	72 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	81 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 53527. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.75, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Wisconsin and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 685, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	81.6	82	40%	+32.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	72.3	72	35%	+25.3
Market Momentum Score	80.9	81	25%	+20.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	11,924	73	40%	+29.3
Median household income (ACS)	133,883	94	40%	+37.5
Households (ACS)	4,874	74	20%	+14.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	30.8	71	35%	+25.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	14.3	55	25%	+13.9
Population (ACS)	11,924	73	20%	+14.7
Median household income (ACS)	133,883	94	20%	+18.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	30.8	84	50%	+41.8
10-year restaurant growth	30.8	71	30%	+21.4
20-year restaurant growth	142.9	88	20%	+17.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (35)

By cuisine

American 7 · Coffee 6 · Pizza 5 · Sandwiches 4 · Bakery 2 · Breakfast 2 · Burgers 2 · Dessert 2 · Italian 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Mexican 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 21 · Quick service 8 · Bar 6 · Café 5 · Casual dining 5 · Bakery 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Dessert 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
1855 Saloon and Grill	Casual dining · Bar	American	218 S Main St	open
Amplified Nutrition LLC	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea	Coffee · Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	214 W Cottage Grove Rd	open
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1603 Landmark Dr	open
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2763 County Rd N	open
Baskin-Robbins Baskin-Robbins	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	110 W Limestone Pass	open
BB Jacks Cottage Grove	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1609 Landmark Dr	open
Black Bear Inn	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	320 W Cottage Grove Rd	open
Blimpie	Quick service		447 W Cottage Grove Rd	open
Chester's Chicken Cinnabon	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery · Dessert	Chicken / wings · Bakery · Dessert	2763 County Rd N	open
Culver's Culver's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1599 Landmark Dr	open
Don Maguey Mexican Restaurant	Casual dining · Bar	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1609 Landmark Dr	open
Doughboy Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	447	open
Doundrins Distilling	Winery / distillery / taproom		300 Progress Dr F	open
Famous Yetis Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	447 W Cottage Grove Rd	open
Grace Coffee Cottage Grove Grace Coffee Co.	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	2515 Gaston Rd	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2763 County Rd N	open
Jimmy John's Jimmy John's	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	1579 Landmark Dr	open
Kozy Nuk Cafe	Café	Coffee · American	214 W Cottage Grove Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	401 W Cottage Grove Rd	open
Mr Queso Restaurant and Sports Bar	Bar · Casual dining	Mexican	1609 Landmark Dr Ste 120	open
Noodles & Company Noodles & Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Noodles / ramen / pho · American	110 W Limestone Pass Ste 4	open
Oakleaf Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	4740 Pierceville Rd	open
Olde Town Coffee House	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · Breakfast	218 S Main St	open
Outpost Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar	American	227 S Main St	open
Papa Jimmy's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	224 W Cottage Grove Rd	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	536 Southing Grange Dane	open
School Grounds	Café	Coffee	4691 County Rd N	open
Smokin Hot Backyard BBQ Competition	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	203 Grove St	open
Soul Sisters Micro Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	2140 Heritage Ct	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	449 W. Cottage Grove Rd.	open
The Big Moo Cheese	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		PO Box 233	open
The Gaston School Gallery, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4691 County Road N	open
Trattoria Landini	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	Whispering Way	open
Village Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	214 W Cottage Grove Rd	open
Xiang Jiang	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	439 W Cottage Grove Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	8	5	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	7	4	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1996	7	5	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	10	6	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1998	8	5	4	1	—	3	NAICS1997
1999	7	5	4	1	—	2	NAICS1997
2000	8	7	5	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	7	6	4	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	5	4	1	2	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	8	7	4	2	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	7	5	2	2	1	2	NAICS2002
2005	10	7	3	2	2	3	NAICS2002
2006	8	5	2	2	1	3	NAICS2002
2007	12	10	4	4	2	2	NAICS2002
2008	13	10	3	5	2	3	NAICS2007
2009	12	10	2	7	1	2	NAICS2007
2010	13	11	4	6	1	2	NAICS2007
2011	14	12	6	5	1	2	NAICS2007
2012	14	12	5	7	—	2	NAICS2012
2013	15	13	5	8	—	2	NAICS2012
2014	15	13	4	9	—	2	NAICS2012
2015	14	12	3	9	—	2	NAICS2012
2016	15	12	3	9	—	3	NAICS2012
2017	17	14	3	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	16	13	3	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	18	15	4	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	19	16	6	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	19	15	6	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	22	18	8	9	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	20	17	7	9	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 53527. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
53531	4.7 mi	3	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.