BMIE Market 53532

Dane County, Wisconsin · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	16,514 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±627 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,387 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±302 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	13,606 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,335 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$110,022 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,158 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,414 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±86 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$371,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,771 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	54.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	20 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 53532
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	9.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+11.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+42.9% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+233.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	22 (range 19–25) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.80) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	77 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	81 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	76 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	69 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 53532. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.80, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Wisconsin and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 685, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	81.5	81	40%	+32.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	76.3	76	35%	+26.7
Market Momentum Score	68.8	69	25%	+17.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	16,514	78	40%	+31.3
Median household income (ACS)	110,022	87	40%	+34.6
Households (ACS)	6,387	78	20%	+15.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	42.9	78	35%	+27.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.1	64	25%	+16.0
Population (ACS)	16,514	78	20%	+15.6
Median household income (ACS)	110,022	87	20%	+17.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	11.1	69	50%	+34.5
10-year restaurant growth	42.9	78	30%	+23.5
20-year restaurant growth	33.3	54	20%	+10.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (46)

By cuisine

American 13 · Coffee 5 · Pizza 5 · Bakery 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Burgers 3 · Chicken / wings 3 · Mexican 3 · Asian 2 · Chinese 2 · Dessert 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · BBQ 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · European 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Indian 1 · Italian 1 · Seafood 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 21 · Quick service 14 · Bar 7 · Bakery 4 · Café 4 · Casual dining 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Dessert 3 · Food truck 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A&w Restaurant Rocky Rococo Pizza and Pasta	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza · Italian	4905 County Highway V	open
American Girl American Girl	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	612 Burton Blvd	open
Aranda's Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	142 Market St	open
Arby's Arby's	Quick service	Sandwiches · American	4661 Dalmore Rd	open
Arby's Arby's	Quick service	Sandwiches · American	4884 County Trunk Hwy S V	open
Asian Hut Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Thai · Chinese	404 N Main St	open
BB Jack's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	300 E Holum St	open
Beans n Cream Coffee Beans n Cream Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	148 E Holum St	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	4876 County Highway V	open
Cake Pop Box	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	923 Skylark Lane	open
Chang Jiang \| Chinese	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	631 S Main St	open
Chester's Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	6162 US Highway 51	open
Club 51	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		7123 N Towne Rd	open
Cousins Subs	Quick service		6162 US Highway 51	open
Culver's Culver's	Dessert	Burgers · Ice cream / frozen desserts · American	4910 Co Hwy V	open
Deforest Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	505 W North St	open
Domino's Pizza - Coming Soon Domino's	Quick service		310 N Main St	open
El Alegre Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	314 N Main St	open
Grinds Coffee Pouches Grinds Pouches	Coffee shop	Coffee	602 W North St	open
Highway Dhaba Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Indian · American	6162 US-51	open
Jimmy John's Jimmy John's	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	635 S Main St	open
Karen The Cake Lady	Bakery	Bakery	117 Commerce St	open
Korner Store	Food truck		815 Jefferson St	open
Landmark Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar		100 S Main St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	981 W North St	open
Mr. B's Angels Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		100 E Holum St	open
Norske Nook Norske Nook Restaurants and Bakery	Bakery	Bakery · European	100 E Holum St	open
Norski Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	122 W Holum St	open
North and South Seafood & Smokehouse North South Seafood & Smokehouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · BBQ · American	605 S Main St	open
Papa Murphy's Papa Murphy's - Jefferson City	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	611 S Main St	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	633 S Main St Dane	open
Pizza Pit	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	611 S Main St	open
Pizza Takeout & Delivery Papa Murphy's	Quick service			open
Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Chicken / wings · American · Cajun, Creole, Southern	5901 US-51	open
Roasty Toasty	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	637 S Main St	open
Royal Smoque Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		605 S Main St	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	4886 County Highway V	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	4867 County Road V	open
Sunset Grill Of De Forest	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	637 W North St	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	4866 County Highway V	open
The Keg	Casual dining · Bar	Steakhouse	6295 Portage Rd	open
The Shed	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Pizza	6335 Portage Rd	open
Timbers Tavern Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar	American	208 W North St	open
Wendy's	Quick service		120 Evco Cir	open
Woolly’s Snack Hut	Dessert · Food truck	Dessert	308 E Holum St	open
Yahara Riverside Speakeasy	Bar		205 Acker Pkwy	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	11	6	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1995	9	5	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1996	11	6	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1997	15	9	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1998	16	9	3	6	—	6	NAICS1997
1999	14	8	3	5	—	6	NAICS1997
2000	17	10	3	7	—	7	NAICS1997
2001	18	12	3	8	1	6	NAICS1997
2002	21	14	6	8	—	7	NAICS1997
2003	20	15	6	9	—	5	NAICS2002
2004	21	16	5	9	2	5	NAICS2002
2005	21	17	6	10	1	4	NAICS2002
2006	22	17	6	11	—	4	NAICS2002
2007	22	16	7	9	—	5	NAICS2002
2008	21	15	6	9	—	5	NAICS2007
2009	20	14	6	8	—	5	NAICS2007
2010	18	13	6	7	—	4	NAICS2007
2011	18	13	6	7	—	5	NAICS2007
2012	18	14	6	8	—	4	NAICS2012
2013	17	14	7	7	—	3	NAICS2012
2014	17	15	7	7	1	2	NAICS2012
2015	19	16	7	7	2	2	NAICS2012
2016	18	16	8	7	1	2	NAICS2012
2017	20	18	8	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	21	18	8	9	—	3	NAICS2017
2019	21	19	10	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	22	20	10	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	22	19	11	7	—	3	NAICS2017
2022	21	18	9	8	—	3	NAICS2022
2023	24	20	9	9	—	4	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 53532. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
53571	2.4 mi	1	2015
53598	2.8 mi	6	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.