BMIE Market 55016

Washington County, Minnesota · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	40,695 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±207 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	14,283 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±339 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	34,204 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	11,944 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$120,715 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,346 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	36.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,790 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±161 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$377,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,123 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	30.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	34 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 55016
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+9.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+25.9% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+70.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+54.6% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	35 (range 30–40) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.24) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	82 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	92 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	81 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	69 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 55016. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.24, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Minnesota and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 715, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	92.4	92	40%	+37.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	80.6	81	35%	+28.2
Market Momentum Score	69	69	25%	+17.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 92 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	40,695	94	40%	+37.7
Median household income (ACS)	120,715	91	40%	+36.2
Households (ACS)	14,283	93	20%	+18.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	25.9	68	35%	+23.9
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.4	79	25%	+19.7
Population (ACS)	40,695	94	20%	+18.8
Median household income (ACS)	120,715	91	20%	+18.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	9.7	67	50%	+33.6
10-year restaurant growth	25.9	68	30%	+20.5
20-year restaurant growth	70	75	20%	+14.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (63)

By cuisine

Pizza 12 · Coffee 9 · American 8 · Sandwiches 7 · Asian 6 · Burgers 6 · Bakery 4 · Italian 4 · Mexican 4 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 3 · Chinese 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Japanese 2 · Thai 2 · Breakfast 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Dessert 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Sushi 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 35 · Quick service 17 · Coffee shop 9 · Bar 6 · Café 6 · Bakery 5 · Casual dining 5 · Food truck 3 · Specialty food shop 3 · Dessert 2 · Other 2 · Buffet 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Applebee's Applebee's Grill & Bar	Casual dining · Bar	American	8380 E Point Douglas Rd S	open
Arby's Arby's	Quick service	Sandwiches · American	7185 E Point Douglas Rd S E Point Douglas Rd S & 80 Th St S	open
Baskin-Robbins Baskin-Robbins	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee · Dessert	7584 80th Street South Suite 5	open
Bella Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	6990 80th St S Ste 170	open
Buffalo Wild Wings Buffalo Wild Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	7145 East Point Douglas Road Suite 160	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	8481 E Point Douglas Rd S	open
Caffeination Station	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	9062 Jensen Ave S	open
Carbone's Pizzeria Cottage Grove	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar · Casual dining	Pizza	7155 Jorgensen Ln S	open
Caribou Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	7702 80th Street	open
Caribou Coffee Caribou Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	7145 E Point Douglas Rd S	open
Casa Mia Restaurant & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Chinese · American	7420 80th St S	open
Cassini's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	8711 E Point Douglas Rd S Ste 109	open
Cassini's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	8711 E Point Douglas Rd S	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	7180 E Point Douglas Rd S Ste 300 300	open
Coffee Cabin Express	Coffee shop · Food truck · Café	Coffee	8690 E Point Douglas Rd S	open
Cottage Grove Appliance Repair Near Me	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	8711 E Point Douglas Rd S Ste 15	open
Cottage Grove DQ Dairy Queen	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	7175 80th St S	open
Culver's Culver's	Quick service	Burgers · American	7998 Hardwood Ave S.	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	7145 E Point Douglas Road S	open
Eagles Bar & Grill at River Oaks Golf Course	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		11099 US-61	open
Emily's Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	8711 E Point Douglas Rd S Ste 110	open
Grove Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	7750 Harkness Ave S	open
Grove Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies		open
Ho King	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	8711 E Point Douglas Rd S Ste 103	open
Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	8800 Point Douglas Road South Suite 800	open
Jimmy John's Jimmy John's	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	7750 Harkness Ave S	open
Junction 70 Grill	Bar · Casual dining		6933 Pine Arbor Dr S	open
Kmo's Thai Food Trailer	Food truck	Thai · Asian	8617 E Point Douglas Rd S	open
Las Margaritas Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	7165 E Point Douglas Rd S	open
Lisu's Thai Taste \| Cottage Grove	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	7145 E Point Douglas Rd S	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	7355 Point Douglas Rd	open
Metro Dining Club	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7200 80th St S Ste 26	open
Mi Pueblo Cottage Grove	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	7155 Jorgensen Ln S	open
mississippi Dunes Range	Bar		10351 Grey Cloud Trl S	open
Mr. Goodcents Subs & Pasta	Other	Sandwiches	8800 E Point Douglas Rd S	open
Muddy Cow Muddy Cow Coon Rapids	Bar · Casual dining	American	7350 Hardwood Ct S	open
Noodles & Company Noodles & Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Noodles / ramen / pho · Asian	7180 E Point Douglas Rd S	open
Papa Murphy's Papa Murphy's - Jefferson City	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	8471 E Point Douglas Rd S	open
Perkins Restaurant & Bakery	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	7165 E Point Douglas Rd S	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	6990 80th St S Washington	open
Pizza Man	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	8118 Hadley Ave S	open
Pizza Man Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	8800 E Point Douglas Rd S	open
Pizza Ranch Pizza Ranch	Buffet · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	7855 Harkness Ave S	open
Pizza Takeout & Delivery Papa Murphy's	Quick service			open
Rivertown Cakes Bakery Boutique	Bakery	Bakery	7750 Harkness Ave S #112	open
Rocco's Pizza Rocco's Pizza Ickenham	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	7422 E Point Douglas Rd S #3025	open
Ruby Tuesday	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	7350 Hardwood Ct S	open
Smith Brothers BBQ	Food truck · Specialty food shop		9030 Inwood Ave S	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	8655 E Point Douglas Rd S	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	7190 E Point Douglas Rd S (Cottage Gro, Ve-E Point Douglas)	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	7190 E Point Douglas Rd S	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	8455 E Point Douglas Rd S	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	7155 Jorgenson Lane Suite 140	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	7430 80th St S Ste 105	open
Sushi Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	7750 Harkness Ave S	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	8623 E Point Douglas Rd S	open
Tank Farms	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10249 80th St S	open
The Cottage Garden	Bakery	Bakery	8082 Grafton Ave S	open
Umami Wok	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	9265 93rd St S	open
Vangz Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Vietnamese · Japanese	8711 E Point Douglas Rd S #103	open
Wahlburgers @ Hy-vee	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	7280 E Point Douglas Rd S	open
Walmart Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	9300 E Point Douglas Rd S	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	8639 E. Point Douglas Road	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	24	22	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	22	20	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	21	19	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	22	21	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	21	19	5	11	3	1	NAICS1997
1999	23	21	7	11	3	1	NAICS1997
2000	22	21	8	11	2	—	NAICS1997
2001	18	17	8	8	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	18	17	7	8	2	—	NAICS1997
2003	23	20	5	13	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	27	25	8	14	3	—	NAICS2002
2005	30	27	8	16	3	1	NAICS2002
2006	36	31	9	18	4	2	NAICS2002
2007	36	30	7	18	5	2	NAICS2002
2008	34	28	8	15	5	2	NAICS2007
2009	32	27	9	13	5	1	NAICS2007
2010	31	28	9	15	4	1	NAICS2007
2011	35	32	10	17	5	1	NAICS2007
2012	30	28	10	15	3	—	NAICS2012
2013	29	27	9	15	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	33	31	12	15	4	—	NAICS2012
2015	35	33	12	16	5	—	NAICS2012
2016	37	34	11	17	6	—	NAICS2012
2017	38	36	9	23	4	—	NAICS2017
2018	33	31	6	23	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	34	32	8	22	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	35	33	8	23	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	34	32	6	23	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	38	34	8	23	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	38	34	8	23	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 55016. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
55071	3.2 mi	5	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.