BMIE Market 55040

Isanti County, Minnesota · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	14,837 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±524 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,408 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±287 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	12,568 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,884 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$90,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,541 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,264 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±124 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$314,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,491 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	98.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 55040
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+37.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+22.2% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+83.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	8 (range 5–11) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.03) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	75 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	63 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	63 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 55040. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.03, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Minnesota and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 715, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	75.3	75	40%	+30.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	63.0	63	35%	+22.1
Market Momentum Score	63.3	63	25%	+15.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	14,837	76	40%	+30.6
Median household income (ACS)	90,900	74	40%	+29.6
Households (ACS)	5,408	75	20%	+15.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	7.4	83	25%	+20.7
Population (ACS)	14,837	76	20%	+15.3
Median household income (ACS)	90,900	74	20%	+14.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	37.5	87	50%	+43.4
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	22.2	47	20%	+9.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (29)

By cuisine

American 5 · Coffee 5 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Pizza 4 · Dessert 3 · Bakery 2 · Italian 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 15 · Bar 7 · Dessert 7 · Café 5 · Casual dining 5 · Quick service 4 · Coffee shop 3 · Bakery 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Captains Lakeside Grille	Casual dining · Bar		27821 Bay Shore Dr NW	open
Caribou Coffee Caribou Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	209 6th Ave NE	open
Caribou Coffee Caribou Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Breakfast	260 5th Avenue Northeast	open
Carrigan's Corner Backyard Bar and Grill	Bar	BBQ · American	12 Elizabeth St SW	open
Casey's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	721 Heritage Blvd NW	open
Chanticlear Pizza Chanticlear Pizza Grill - Coon Rapids	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	404 Whiskey Rd NW	open
China House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	303 Credit Union Dr	open
Dairy Queen Grill & Chill Dairy Queen	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	280 5th Avenue Northeast	open
DQ Grill & Chill DQ Grill & Chill	Quick service		280 5th Ave NE	open
Himangos Hideaway	Food truck · Bar	American	704 4th Avenue Southwest	open
Isanti Spirits LLC	Winery / distillery / taproom		4242 285th Ave NW	open
Isanti Vfw	Casual dining · Bar	American	410 Railroad Ave SE	open
Jimmy's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	26110 Rum River Dr NW	open
Jimmy's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	401 E Dual Blvd NE	open
Little North Sweets	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	291 5th Ave S	open
Little North Sweets	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	291 5th Ave Ne Ste 100	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	412 Heritage Blvd Ne	open
Rendezvous Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	310 Dahlin Ave NE	open
Sota Girls	Dessert · Casual dining	Dessert · American	108 Main St E	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	120 Heritage Blvd NE, Suite 1	open
Sweet Home Mn Cookie Co.	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	709 Fir St SW	open
Sweet Ride Bake Shoppe	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	Tamarack St NW	open
The Creamery Cafe	Café	Coffee	104 Main St E	open
The Healthy Hideaway	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	303 Credit Union Dr	open
The Saucy Mamma	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		27885 Bay Shore Dr NW	open
Thunder Brothers Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		801 MN-65	open
Two Scoops Isanti Two Scoops	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	291 5th Avenue Northeast	open
Whistle Stop Bar & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar		123 Cajima St NE	open
Wintergreen's Golf & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	306 Credit Union Dr	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	2	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	6	5	3	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	8	6	2	3	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	7	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	9	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	10	9	4	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	10	10	4	4	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	11	10	5	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	8	7	3	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	9	7	3	3	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	9	6	3	2	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	10	8	5	2	1	1	NAICS2007
2010	11	10	5	4	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	9	9	5	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	9	9	4	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	11	11	4	6	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	9	9	3	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	10	10	4	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	10	10	5	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	10	7	3	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	8	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	10	8	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	10	9	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	10	8	3	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	11	9	—	4	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	13	11	—	7	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 55040. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
55070	4.5 mi	8	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.