BMIE Market 55042

Washington County, Minnesota · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	13,705 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±224 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,921 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±267 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	8,840 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,126 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$154,341 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,760 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,407 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,894 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$602,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±30,274 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	24.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 55042
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+57.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+83.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+175.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+120.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	11 (range 8–14) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.69) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	86 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	84 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	86 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	91 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 55042. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.69, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Minnesota and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 715, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 86 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	83.5	84	40%	+33.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	85.7	86	35%	+30.0
Market Momentum Score	90.9	91	25%	+22.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 84 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	13,705	75	40%	+30.1
Median household income (ACS)	154,341	97	40%	+38.6
Households (ACS)	4,921	74	20%	+14.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 86 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	83.3	89	35%	+31.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.0	80	25%	+20.1
Population (ACS)	13,705	75	20%	+15.1
Median household income (ACS)	154,341	97	20%	+19.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 91 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	57.1	92	50%	+46.1
10-year restaurant growth	83.3	89	30%	+26.8
20-year restaurant growth	175	90	20%	+18.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (19)

By cuisine

American 4 · Coffee 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Mexican 2 · Asian 1 · Breakfast 1 · Italian 1 · Japanese 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 12 · Bar 5 · Casual dining 5 · Coffee shop 4 · Café 2 · Dessert 2 · Food truck 2 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Arnie's Restaurant @ RGC	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	11455 20th St N	open
Dairy Queen Dairy Queen	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	DQ Grill & Chill Restaurant #70891 - Lake Elmo, MN 9923 Hudson Blvd.	open
Gorman's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Breakfast	11011 Stillwater Blvd N	open
Greater Tater	Food truck		8164 Hill Trl N	open
Jdam Management Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9939 Hudson Blvd N Ste 109	open
La Maria Taqueria food truck	Food truck	Mexican	11025 10th St N	open
Lake Elmo Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · Sandwiches	3511 Lake Elmo Ave N Ste uite 100	open
Lake Elmo Creamery	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Ice cream / frozen desserts · American	3549 Lake Elmo Ave N	open
Lake Elmo Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	3442 Lake Elmo Ave N	open
Lakewood Tavern	Casual dining · Bar		9939 Hudson Blvd N	open
MARMA	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		11127 Stillwater Blvd	open
No Neck Tony's Lake Elmo	Bar		11127 Stillwater Blvd N	open
Oishii Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	9931 Hudson Blvd N Ste 120	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	9947 Hudson Blvd N	open
Sunshine Coffee Co.	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	3459 Lake Elmo Ave N	open
Tacos and Go	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	9939 Hudson Blvd N Ste 109	open
The Stable Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	3549 Lake Elmo Ave N	open
Twin Point Tavern	Casual dining · Bar		11199 Stillwater Blvd	open
Urban Coffee Company	Coffee shop	Coffee	3459 Lake Elmo Ave N	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	6	2	1	—	1	1	NAICS1997
1999	8	4	3	—	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	7	3	2	—	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	9	5	4	—	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	8	4	3	—	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	8	4	2	1	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	7	3	2	—	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	8	4	2	1	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	8	4	3	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	5	3	2	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	6	3	2	—	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	5	3	2	—	1	1	NAICS2007
2010	9	6	4	—	2	1	NAICS2007
2011	8	5	4	—	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	7	4	3	—	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	9	6	3	2	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	8	5	3	1	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	8	5	3	1	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	9	6	4	1	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	9	7	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	9	7	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	10	9	4	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	9	8	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	8	7	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	12	8	4	3	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	15	11	6	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 55042. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
55128	3.5 mi	39	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.