BMIE Market 55130

Ramsey County, Minnesota · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	17,775 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,539 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,799 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±325 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	17,575 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,908 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$54,130 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,272 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	28.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,183 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±68 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$236,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,888 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	2.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	17 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 55130
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	4.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+30.8% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+112.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+750.0% DERIVED: 2006 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	20 (range 17–22) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.7 per year, r² 0.81) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	69 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	55 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	71 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	88 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 55130. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.7 restaurants per year, r² 0.81, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Minnesota and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 715, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	55.2	55	40%	+22.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	71.5	71	35%	+25.0
Market Momentum Score	87.7	88	25%	+21.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	17,775	79	40%	+31.8
Median household income (ACS)	54,130	20	40%	+8.2
Households (ACS)	5,799	76	20%	+15.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	112.5	94	35%	+33.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	9.6	74	25%	+18.5
Population (ACS)	17,775	79	20%	+15.9
Median household income (ACS)	54,130	20	20%	+4.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 88 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	30.8	84	50%	+52.2
10-year restaurant growth	112.5	94	30%	+35.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (49)

By cuisine

Mexican 8 · American 7 · Latin American (other) 5 · Bakery 4 · Asian 3 · Coffee 3 · Pizza 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · African 1 · BBQ 1 · Burgers 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Seafood 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 27 · Bar 8 · Casual dining 7 · Quick service 5 · Bakery 4 · Café 2 · Dessert 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Coffee shop 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A+ Chi-Town	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Quick service	Dessert	927 Payne Ave	open
Beniz Tamales	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	990 Payne Ave	open
Brunson's Pub	Casual dining · Bar		956 Payne Ave	open
Burnt Chicken Cafe	Other	Sandwiches	1124 Payne Ave	open
Cafe Lilla	Bar		1110 Payne Ave	open
Capital Corn	Restaurant (service type not stated)		927 Payne Ave	open
Carnitas Don Tacho	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1193 Payne Ave	open
Caydence Records & Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	900 Payne Ave	open
Cbcw Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1143 Payne Ave	open
Chi Town Grill & Grocery	Casual dining · Quick service · Specialty food shop · Bar	American · Sandwiches	1201 Edgerton St	open
Cook St Paul	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1124 Payne Ave	open
Cookie Cart	Bakery	Bakery	946 Payne Ave	open
Cora's Best Chicken Wings	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Asian	1143 Payne Ave	open
Dulceria Bonbon	Dessert		882 Payne Ave	open
Eastside Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Burgers · American	1050 Payne Ave	open
Eastside Thai Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	879 Payne Ave	open
El Rey Azteca	Restaurant (service type not stated)		990 Payne Ave	open
El Unico Sabor 2	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Seafood · Latin American (other)	883 Payne Ave	open
ESB - East Side Bar	Casual dining		858 Payne Ave	open
Forever Cheesecakes & Pies	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Bakery	1048 Payne Ave	open
Gorditas El Durango	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	927 Payne Ave	open
Hamburguesas El Gordo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	990 Payne Ave	open
Hotfire Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	900 Payne Ave	open
Jj Steak & Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	990 Payne Ave	open
Juche St Paul	Bar		1124 Payne Ave	open
Judy's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	949 Payne Ave	open
Karibu Grocery & Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · African	719 Payne Ave	open
Keikeu Cakes	Bakery	Bakery	1124 Payne Ave	open
Louie's Bar	Bar		883 Payne Ave	open
Magnolias Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1081 Payne Ave	open
Mangos Restaurant Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		927 Payne Ave	open
Marquez Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	870 Payne Ave	open
Mexitalian Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1193 Payne Ave	open
Nekter Juice Bar	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	644 Olive St	open
Northstar Bar And Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		883 Payne Ave	open
Nothing Compares 2P	Bar		499 Payne Ave	open
Payne Ave Best Steak House	Restaurant (service type not stated)		949 Payne Ave	open
Plaza Latina	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Latin American (other) · American	927 Payne Ave	open
Porky's Bar	Casual dining · Bar		1080 Payne Ave	open
San Miguel	Bakery	Bakery	886 Payne Ave	open
Santa Fe	Café	Coffee	1105 Payne Ave	open
Señor Sol	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	990 Payne Ave	open
Shobi's Table	Food truck		1055 Payne Ave	open
Sui Yep Cafe	Café	Chinese · Coffee · Asian	1010 Payne Ave	open
Tazumal Pupuseria	Quick service	Latin American (other) · Mexican	990 Payne Ave	open
Tongue in Cheek	Casual dining · Bar	American	989 Payne Ave	open
Ward 6 Food & Drink	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	858 Payne Ave	open
Yarusso Bros Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	635 Payne Ave	open
Mazatlan Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		990 Payne Ave	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2006	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	12	9	3	4	2	1	NAICS2002
2008	11	7	4	2	—	2	NAICS2007
2009	11	6	3	2	—	2	NAICS2007
2010	10	8	4	3	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	12	10	5	4	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	13	10	6	3	—	2	NAICS2012
2013	11	8	5	2	—	2	NAICS2012
2014	14	10	7	2	—	2	NAICS2012
2015	14	11	6	4	—	2	NAICS2012
2016	14	10	6	3	—	3	NAICS2012
2017	15	12	7	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	15	13	8	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	17	14	8	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	15	12	7	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	15	13	9	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	18	14	10	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	18	17	13	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 55130. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
55101	1.6 mi	41	2023
55155	1.7 mi	1	2006
55106	2.1 mi	63	2023
55103	2.1 mi	30	2023
55117	2.1 mi	40	2023
55107	2.9 mi	15	2023
55102	3.4 mi	74	2023
55109	4.0 mi	84	2023
55104	4.2 mi	85	2023
55113	4.3 mi	125	2023
55119	4.4 mi	33	2023
55108	4.6 mi	34	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.