BMIE Market 55318

Carver County, Minnesota · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	30,369 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±305 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	11,705 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±361 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	25,493 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	9,963 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$112,243 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,068 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	37.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,555 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±110 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$420,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±25,054 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	39.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	37 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 55318
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+8.8% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+23.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+85.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+146.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	42 (range 40–45) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.9 per year, r² 0.85) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	78 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	88 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	74 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	68 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 55318. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.9 restaurants per year, r² 0.85, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Minnesota and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 715, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	88.4	88	40%	+35.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	74.3	74	35%	+26.0
Market Momentum Score	68.4	68	25%	+17.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 88 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	30,369	89	40%	+35.6
Median household income (ACS)	112,243	88	40%	+35.0
Households (ACS)	11,705	89	20%	+17.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	23.3	66	35%	+23.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.2	64	25%	+15.9
Population (ACS)	30,369	89	20%	+17.8
Median household income (ACS)	112,243	88	20%	+17.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	8.8	66	50%	+33.1
10-year restaurant growth	23.3	66	30%	+19.8
20-year restaurant growth	85	78	20%	+15.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (81)

By cuisine

American 15 · Coffee 10 · Pizza 9 · Bakery 8 · Sandwiches 7 · Mexican 6 · Burgers 4 · Dessert 4 · Asian 3 · Italian 3 · Breakfast 2 · Chinese 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Indian 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · BBQ 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Sushi 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 47 · Quick service 18 · Bar 12 · Casual dining 11 · Bakery 9 · Coffee shop 8 · Café 7 · Dessert 5 · Other 3 · Food truck 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Fast casual 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	805 Yellow Brick Rd	open
Bongard Baking Co.	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	775 Ashley Dr	open
Borealis Bowls Food Truck	Food truck		1325 Lexington Ct	open
Caribou Coffee Caribou Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	142 Pioneer Trail	open
Caribou Coffee Caribou Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1004 Gateway Dr	open
Charlie's Town Course Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Steakhouse	3000 Town Course Dr	open
Chaska City Diner	Casual dining	American	222 N Chestnut St	open
Chaska Farmers Market	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	298 Beech St	open
Chaska My Love	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	127 W 4th St	open
Chaska Thai Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Noodles / ramen / pho · Asian	2 River Bend Pl	open
China Pagoda Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	323 N Chestnut St	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1112 Hazeltine Blvd	open
Cold Stone Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	104 Pioneer Trl	open
Crooked Pint Ale House Crooked Pint	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar		3210 Chaska Blvd	open
Culver's Culver's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	180 Pioneer Trail East	open
Cuzzy's Brick House	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2880 Chaska Blvd	open
Cy's Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar	American	500 N Pine St #100	open
Dairy Queen Dairy Queen	Quick service · Casual dining	American	2935 N Chestnut St 2935 N Chestnut St	open
Detello's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	2914 N Chestnut St	open
Dickeys Barbecue Pit	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	214 Pioneer Trl	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	503 Chestnut	open
Downtown Grill & Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · Pizza	222 N Chestnut St	open
Driven Coffee Roasters	Coffee shop	Coffee	313 Lake Hazeltine Dr	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee · Breakfast	710 N Chestnut St	open
Dunn Brothers Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	100 E 2nd St Ste 100	open
Edible India	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Indian · American	724 N Chestnut St	open
El Paisano	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Bakery · Mexican	117 W 4th St	open
Fantasy Garage	Bar		2220 Schoolmaster Dr	open
Heartbreakers Bar & Grill	Bar · Casual dining		222 Pioneer Trail	open
Heaven Gluten-Free Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	2950 Chaska Blvd	open
India Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Indian	162 Pioneer Trail	open
Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service		188 Pioneer Trail Ste 209	open
Jones Coffee - Chaska	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	100 E 2nd St	open
La Costena Meat Market	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	110 E 2nd St	open
La Hermosa	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	222 N Chestnut St	open
Las Panchitas	Food truck	Mexican · Latin American (other)	3050 Chaska Blvd	open
Le Bistro Tourville	Other	Sandwiches	104 Pioneer Trl	open
Legendary Baking	Bakery	Bakery	300 Lake Hazeltine Dr	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service	Pizza · Italian	818 Yellow Brick Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1120 Hazeltine Blvd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	2840 Chaska Blvd	open
MrBeast Burger	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · Sandwiches	184 Pioneer Trl	open
Nautical Bowls	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Healthy / salads / bowls	Right next to Caribou in Chaska Commons, 144 Pione	open
Nautical Bowls Chaska Nautical Bowls	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Healthy / salads / bowls	144 Pioneer Trl	open
Northern Star Company	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		101 82nd St W	open
Oak 19 Fare & Refreshment	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	3000 Town Course Dr	open
Papa Johns Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	224 pioneer trl	open
Papa Murphy's \| Take 'N' Bake Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1006 Gateway Dr	open
Pasta Zola	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		188 Pioneer Trail	open
Patron Mexican Bar & Grill	Bar		207 N Chestnut St Ste 110	open
Pauly's American Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2880 Chaska Blvd	open
Perkins at Chaska Commons 184 Pioneer Trl Chaska, MN Perkins	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	Chaska Commons 184 Pioneer Trl	open
Perkins Restaurant & Bakery Perkins American Food Co.	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	184 Pioneer Trail	open
Perkins Restaurant and Bakery	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Bakery · American	2860 Chaska Blvd	open
Pizza Hut Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	111 Pioneer Trail	open
Pizza N Pasta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	105 W 2nd St	open
Pizza Takeout & Delivery Papa Murphy's	Quick service			open
Pretty Great Cheesecake	Dessert · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	867 Woodridge Dr S	open
Qdoba Mexican Grill Qdoba	Quick service	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	194 Pioneer Trail Chaska	open
Qdoba Mexican Grill - Twin Cities Group Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1107 Hazeltine Blvd	open
Quiznos	Other	Sandwiches	232 Pioneer Trl	open
Red Bench Bakery	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	500 N Chestnut St	open
Rising Dragon	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	814 Yellow Brick Rd	open
Rouge 41 Cocktail Lounge	Bar		500 N Chestnut St	open
Ruby Tuesday	Restaurant (service type not stated)		320 Pioneer Trl	open
Sake Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	104 Pioneer Trail	open
Sarpino's Pizzeria Sarpino's Pizzeria - USA	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	816 Walnut Pl	open
Schram Haus Brewery	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Brewery / taproom		3700 Chaska Blvd	open
Southern Social Chaska Southern Social Eagan	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2880 Chaska Blvd	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1114 Hazeltine Blvd	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	111 Pioneer Trail	open
Stick's Tavern	Casual dining · Bar	American	6940 Dahlgren Rd	open
Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	703 N Walnut Street	open
Subway Restaurants	Quick service		111 Hundertmark Rd	open
The Bellows Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar		232 Pioneer Trail	open
The Blends Chaska	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	108 Pioneer Trail	open
The Golden Kitchen Mexican Bar & Grill	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	207 N Chestnut St	open
Tommy's Old Fashioned Malt Shop, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2 River Bend Pl	open
Wildflour Baking Co.	Bakery	Bakery	Chaska, Minnesota	open
Willy McCoys Willy’s On The Water	Bar · Casual dining	American	320 Pioneer Trail	open
Wingstop Wingstop	Quick service		2940 N Chestnut Street	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	17	15	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	17	15	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	20	17	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	21	19	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	25	19	7	11	—	2	NAICS1997
1999	24	19	6	11	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	25	20	6	12	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	29	23	8	11	3	2	NAICS1997
2002	29	24	8	11	4	1	NAICS1997
2003	25	20	8	9	2	1	NAICS2002
2004	26	20	8	9	2	1	NAICS2002
2005	30	24	11	10	3	1	NAICS2002
2006	36	29	11	14	4	1	NAICS2002
2007	39	31	12	14	5	2	NAICS2002
2008	36	28	10	14	3	2	NAICS2007
2009	31	25	8	14	2	2	NAICS2007
2010	28	22	6	13	2	2	NAICS2007
2011	32	25	7	15	2	2	NAICS2007
2012	39	27	9	15	2	3	NAICS2012
2013	43	30	10	18	2	3	NAICS2012
2014	40	27	9	16	2	3	NAICS2012
2015	41	30	13	15	2	2	NAICS2012
2016	43	31	13	16	2	2	NAICS2012
2017	45	33	11	19	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	47	34	11	20	3	3	NAICS2017
2019	47	35	12	20	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	47	36	12	21	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	46	34	11	19	4	—	NAICS2017
2022	48	37	11	20	6	—	NAICS2022
2023	49	37	11	19	7	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 55318. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
55386	3.5 mi	9	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.