BMIE Market 55386

Carver County, Minnesota · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	10,077 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±388 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,636 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±225 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	6,330 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,186 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$192,458 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,732 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,125 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±735 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$565,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±28,162 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	6.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 55386
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+28.6% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+125.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+80.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+350.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	12 (range 10–14) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.88) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	84 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	82 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	86 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	85 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 55386. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.88, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Minnesota and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 715, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 84 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	81.8	82	40%	+32.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	86.2	86	35%	+30.2
Market Momentum Score	85.2	85	25%	+21.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	10,077	71	40%	+28.4
Median household income (ACS)	192,458	99	40%	+39.5
Households (ACS)	3,636	70	20%	+13.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 86 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	125	95	35%	+33.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.9	76	25%	+19.1
Population (ACS)	10,077	71	20%	+14.2
Median household income (ACS)	192,458	99	20%	+19.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	28.6	83	50%	+41.3
10-year restaurant growth	125	95	30%	+28.4
20-year restaurant growth	80	77	20%	+15.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (17)

By cuisine

American 4 · Coffee 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Mexican 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Bakery 1 · Burgers 1 · Dessert 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 7 · Bar 6 · Café 3 · Casual dining 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Dessert 2 · Quick service 2 · Bakery 1 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Blue Agave	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	7980 Rose St	open
Cmwinc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1750 Tower Blvd Ste 101	open
Dairy Queen Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Burgers	2120 Arboretum Blvd	open
Floyd's Bar	Bar		1758 Arboretum Blvd	open
Janie's Tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1900 80th St	open
Lion’s Den	Bar			open
Nautical Bowls Nautical Bowls	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	1750 Tower Blvd	open
Omni Brewery & Taproom - Victoria	Brewery / taproom		1495 Stieger Lake Ln	open
Ruby's Roost Bakery & Coffee	Bakery · Coffee shop · Café	Bakery · Coffee	7924 Victoria Dr #101	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	1510 Commercial Ave	open
The Butchers Deli	Specialty food shop · Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Café	Sandwiches · Coffee	1550 Arboretum Blvd	open
The Noble Lion	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	7940 Victoria Dr	open
The Social Ice Cream Parlor	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1700 Stieger Lake Ln	open
Vic's Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar		7900 Quamoclit	open
Victoria Burrow	Bar	American	7999 Victoria Dr	open
Victoria House Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1715 Steiger Lake Ln	open
Winchester & Rye	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	7929 Victoria Dr	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	4	2	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	4	2	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	5	3	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	5	2	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	4	2	1	1	—	2	NAICS1997
1999	5	3	1	2	—	2	NAICS1997
2000	6	4	2	2	—	2	NAICS1997
2001	3	2	1	1	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	7	5	2	3	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	7	5	2	3	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	5	3	1	2	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	8	5	2	3	—	2	NAICS2002
2006	8	5	2	3	—	2	NAICS2002
2007	10	8	4	4	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	10	8	4	4	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	8	6	3	3	—	1	NAICS2007
2010	7	5	3	2	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	8	5	3	2	—	2	NAICS2007
2012	8	5	4	1	—	2	NAICS2012
2013	7	4	3	1	—	2	NAICS2012
2014	8	5	3	1	1	2	NAICS2012
2015	9	6	3	2	1	2	NAICS2012
2016	9	6	3	2	1	2	NAICS2012
2017	12	8	4	—	—	3	NAICS2017
2018	11	7	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	8	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	8	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	8	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	12	9	5	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	12	9	5	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 55386. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
55318	3.5 mi	37	2023
55375	4.0 mi	7	2023
55331	4.1 mi	33	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.