BMIE Market 56374

Stearns County, Minnesota · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	10,029 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±369 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,554 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±272 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,868 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,209 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$80,156 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,182 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	33.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,125 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±95 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$292,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±24,726 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	66.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	15 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 56374
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	13.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+7.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-11.8% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+114.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+200.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	12 (range 7–16) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.06) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	56 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	46 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	54 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 56374. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.06, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Minnesota and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 715, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	67.1	67	40%	+26.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	45.9	46	35%	+16.1
Market Momentum Score	54.4	54	25%	+13.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	10,029	71	40%	+28.3
Median household income (ACS)	80,156	62	40%	+24.9
Households (ACS)	3,554	69	20%	+13.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 46 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-11.8	17	35%	+6.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	15.0	53	25%	+13.2
Population (ACS)	10,029	71	20%	+14.2
Median household income (ACS)	80,156	62	20%	+12.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	7.1	64	50%	+32.0
10-year restaurant growth	-11.8	17	30%	+5.2
20-year restaurant growth	114.3	86	20%	+17.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (41)

By cuisine

American 7 · Coffee 5 · Dessert 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Italian 3 · Pizza 3 · Bakery 2 · Burgers 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · Breakfast 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chinese 1 · Hawaiian / Pacific 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Mexican 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 19 · Bar 13 · Casual dining 8 · Dessert 6 · Coffee shop 5 · Quick service 5 · Bakery 3 · Café 3 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Catering 1 · Fast casual 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
98 Hawaiian Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hawaiian / Pacific	13 2nd Ave NW	open
American Burger Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	2010 County Road 75	open
Bad Habit Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		25 College Ave N	open
Bella Cucina	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	Interstate 94	open
Bello Cucina	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	15 E Minnesota St	open
Birdie’s Pizza & Garden Bar	Fast casual · Casual dining · Bar	Pizza · Healthy / salads / bowls	13 2nd Ave NW	open
Bo Diddley's Deli Bo Diddley's in the Cities	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	19 College Ave N	open
Caribou Coffee Caribou Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1500 Elm St E	open
China One China One	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	710 Co Rd 75 #108	open
Clemens Perk	Coffee shop	Coffee	37 College Ave S	open
Clemens Perk Coffee Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated)		37 College Ave S	open
Collegeville Artisan Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	13549 County Road 51, St Joseph, MN 56374	open
Cone Castle	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	118 1st Ave NW	open
Flour & Flower	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	26 College Ave N	open
Gary's Pizza Gary's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	17 College Ave N	open
Gorecki Dining and Conference Center	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	37 College Ave S	open
Grilled Cravings & Quality Ice Cream	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	118 1st Ave NW	open
Jupiter Moon Ice Cream - St. Joseph	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	15 E Minnesota St	open
Kay's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	303 College Ave N	open
Kids Stop	Coffee shop	Coffee	1300 Jade Rd	open
Krewe Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	24 N College Ave	open
La Playette Bar	Bar		16 College Ave N	open
Main Street Pub	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		21 W Minnesota St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1180 Elm St E	open
Milk & Honey Ciders	Winery / distillery / taproom		11738 Co Rd 51	open
Neighbors Route 75 Neighbors Eatery and Saloon	Casual dining · Bar	American	2010 Co Rd 75	open
Neighbors Route 75 Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar	American	2010 County Road 75	open
Obbink Distilling	Winery / distillery / taproom		11 Date St E	open
Sal's Bar & Grill	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		31197 115th Ave	open
Sal's Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar		109 W Minnesota St	open
Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	217 NW County Rd, #75	open
Taco John's Taco John's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	211 County Rd 75 W	open
The House Food and Tap	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		13 2nd Ave NW	open
The Local Blend	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · American	19 W Minnesota St	open
The Lounge - College of St. Benedict	Bar		37 College Ave S	open
The North Table	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar		11738 Co Rd 51	open
The Oasis Bar and Pit	Casual dining · Bar		22 12th Ave SE	open
The Wandering Cow Ice Cream	Dessert · Food truck	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	14 College Ave N	open
V-Twin Tavern	Bar		520 7th Ave SE	open
Witches Cake and Delicious	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	701 College Ave S	open
Wood Fired Wednesdays	Catering	Pizza	31101 CR-133	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	10	5	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1995	9	4	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1996	14	8	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1997	12	7	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1998	12	6	3	2	1	5	NAICS1997
1999	11	5	3	1	1	5	NAICS1997
2000	12	5	3	1	1	6	NAICS1997
2001	13	6	4	1	1	6	NAICS1997
2002	14	9	4	4	1	4	NAICS1997
2003	12	7	3	4	—	4	NAICS2002
2004	14	8	4	4	—	5	NAICS2002
2005	17	10	2	7	1	6	NAICS2002
2006	17	10	1	8	1	7	NAICS2002
2007	20	13	2	11	—	5	NAICS2002
2008	19	13	3	9	1	4	NAICS2007
2009	19	13	3	9	1	4	NAICS2007
2010	19	13	4	8	1	4	NAICS2007
2011	18	13	3	9	1	4	NAICS2007
2012	21	16	5	10	1	5	NAICS2012
2013	21	17	4	12	1	4	NAICS2012
2014	22	18	6	11	1	4	NAICS2012
2015	18	14	4	9	1	4	NAICS2012
2016	18	13	3	9	1	5	NAICS2012
2017	15	11	4	6	—	4	NAICS2017
2018	18	14	6	7	—	4	NAICS2017
2019	16	12	5	6	—	4	NAICS2017
2020	17	13	5	6	—	4	NAICS2017
2021	18	14	5	8	—	4	NAICS2017
2022	21	16	6	8	—	4	NAICS2022
2023	21	15	4	9	—	5	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 56374. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
56321	3.8 mi	—
56387	4.7 mi	47	2023
56303	4.9 mi	22	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.