BMIE Market 56377

Stearns County, Minnesota · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	21,063 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±402 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	8,117 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±303 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	17,648 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	6,771 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$87,172 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,454 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	35.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,273 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±86 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$302,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±20,407 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	22.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	20 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 56377
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	10.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+11.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+81.8% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	20 (range 17–23) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.72) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	75 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	77 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	75 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	73 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 56377. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.72, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Minnesota and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 715, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	77.4	77	40%	+31.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	74.8	75	35%	+26.2
Market Momentum Score	72.9	73	25%	+18.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	21,063	82	40%	+32.9
Median household income (ACS)	87,172	70	40%	+28.2
Households (ACS)	8,117	82	20%	+16.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	33.3	73	35%	+25.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	9.5	74	25%	+18.5
Population (ACS)	21,063	82	20%	+16.4
Median household income (ACS)	87,172	70	20%	+14.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	11.1	69	50%	+34.5
10-year restaurant growth	33.3	73	30%	+22.0
20-year restaurant growth	100	82	20%	+16.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (48)

By cuisine

American 10 · Pizza 6 · Coffee 5 · Sandwiches 5 · Juice / smoothies 4 · Asian 3 · Bakery 3 · Burgers 3 · Dessert 3 · Italian 3 · Mexican 3 · Breakfast 1 · Chinese 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Thai 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 30 · Quick service 10 · Bar 8 · Casual dining 7 · Coffee shop 5 · Café 4 · Juice, smoothie, tea 4 · Bakery 3 · Dessert 3 · Fast casual 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
2nd Street S Scooter's Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	233 Pinecone Road South	open
Anejos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1733 Pine Cone Rd S	open
Bauleke Bar II	Bar		Sandstone Loop	open
Blimpie	Quick service		1001 7th St N	open
Blue Badger Bake Shoppe	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	4 Oak Hill Ct	open
Blue Line Sports Bar and Grill Blue Line Sports Bar and Grill	Bar · Casual dining		1101 2nd St S	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	1710 Pine Cone Rd S	open
Burger King	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1710 Pine Cone Rd S Ste 300	open
Caribou Coffee Caribou Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1725 Pine Cone Rd S	open
Clutch Take and Bake Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1001 2nd St S Ste 400	open
Cold Stone Creamery Cold Stone Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1733 Pine Cone Rd S Ste 500	open
Drakes Fine Food & Spirits	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	520 1st St NE	open
Erbert and Gerberts Erbert & Gerbert's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Fast casual	Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls	707 1st Ave N	open
Fun Time Ice Cream - your neighbourhood Ice Cream Truck.	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		1025 Connecticut Ave S	open
G Allen's Restaurant and Sports Bar	Bar · Casual dining		116 Evergreen Dr	open
Garden Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Vegetarian · Asian	1090 2nd St S	open
Gary's Pizza Gary's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	50 14th Ave E	open
Grill19	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		3125 Clubhouse Rd	open
House of Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	1725 Pine Cone Rd S Suite 100	open
Jade Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	101 7th St N Ste 2	open
Jimmy's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1091 2nd St S Ste 200	open
Liquid Assets	Coffee shop · Casual dining	Coffee · Breakfast · American	1091 2nd St S	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	135 2nd St S	open
Little Fiesta Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1733 Pine Cone Rd S	open
Marnanteli's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	3 Riverside Ave S	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	120 Twin Rivers Ct	open
Mr. D’s Restaurant & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1001 2nd St S #1005	open
MrBeast Burger	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	2291 Connecticut Ave S	open
Nana’s Asian Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai	101 7th St N #2	open
Nature Adjust	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	130 Deer Springs Rd	open
Nutrition 320	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	101 7th St N	open
Pacific Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	1733 Pine Cone Rd S	open
Perkins at 2291 Connecticut Avenue Sartell, MN Perkins	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2291 Connecticut Avenue	open
Perkins Restaurant and Bakery Perkins American Food Co.	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	American · Bakery	2291 Connecticut Ave S	open
Poppy's Garden Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	617 Pine Cone Rd N	open
River Boat Depot	Bar	American	2 Riverside Ave S	open
Rock Solid Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	101 7th St N	open
Sartell 1st Ave Erbert & Gerbert's	Quick service	Sandwiches	707 1st Ave N	open
Scooter's Coffee Scooter's Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	233 Pine Cone Rd S	open
Second Street Coffeehouse	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	1091 2nd St S	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1091 2nd Street South	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	120 Evergreen Dr	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	21 County Road 120 (located in Sartell Walmart)	open
Taco John's Taco John's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	155 County Rd 120	open
Upper Deck Sports Bar & Grill	Bar · Casual dining		38440 55th Ave	open
Vibe Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	234 Pine Cone Rd S	open
White Hawk Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1001 2nd St S Ste 400	open
Winners Sports Bar & Grill	Bar · Casual dining	American	311 2nd St S	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	13	11	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	11	9	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	9	6	3	3	—	2	NAICS1997
1999	9	6	3	3	—	3	NAICS1997
2000	7	5	2	3	—	2	NAICS1997
2001	10	6	2	4	—	3	NAICS1997
2002	9	8	3	5	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	10	10	3	7	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	17	15	7	8	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	17	15	7	8	—	2	NAICS2002
2006	19	18	7	10	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	23	21	10	10	1	2	NAICS2002
2008	20	17	8	9	—	2	NAICS2007
2009	20	16	8	8	—	3	NAICS2007
2010	20	19	11	8	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	18	17	9	8	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	18	15	9	6	—	3	NAICS2012
2013	17	15	9	5	1	2	NAICS2012
2014	16	14	7	6	1	2	NAICS2012
2015	17	15	8	6	1	2	NAICS2012
2016	17	15	8	5	2	2	NAICS2012
2017	19	17	8	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	21	18	8	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	19	17	9	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	20	18	11	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	19	17	10	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	19	17	8	8	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	21	20	10	8	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 56377. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
56303	4.6 mi	22	2023
56375	4.8 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.