BMIE Market 60012

McHenry County, Illinois · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	12,368 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±767 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,220 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±261 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	11,120 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,933 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$159,375 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±22,864 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,667 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,578 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$417,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,234 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	17.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 60012
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	9.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-27.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-11.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+14.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+300.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	9 (range 6–11) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.05) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	59 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	83 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	62 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	18 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 60012. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.05, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Illinois and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,016, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	82.7	83	40%	+33.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	61.9	62	35%	+21.7
Market Momentum Score	18.5	18	25%	+4.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	12,368	74	40%	+29.5
Median household income (ACS)	159,375	97	40%	+38.8
Households (ACS)	4,220	72	20%	+14.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-11.1	18	35%	+6.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	6.5	86	25%	+21.6
Population (ACS)	12,368	74	20%	+14.8
Median household income (ACS)	159,375	97	20%	+19.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 18 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-27.3	10	50%	+4.8
10-year restaurant growth	-11.1	18	30%	+5.3
20-year restaurant growth	14.3	42	20%	+8.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (12)

By cuisine

American 3 · Bakery 2 · Coffee 2 · Dessert 2 · BBQ 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Mexican 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Bar 3 · Quick service 3 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 3 · Bakery 2 · Café 2 · Dessert 2 · Buffet 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Amy's Place	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8711 Ridgefield Rd	open
Carlos River Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Coffee	1707 Nish Rd	open
Clover Dust Cakes	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	6722 New Hampshire Trail	open
Donovan's Smokin Roadhouse	Bar	BBQ · American	331 N IL Route 31	open
Jimmy John's Jimmy John's	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	450 N. Route 31	open
Lynn Cigars	Bar		8412 Railroad St	open
MCC Cafe	Buffet		8900 US Highway 14	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	7617 Rt 14	open
Pablo’s Family Fiesta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex	330 N Il Route 31	open
Sweet Scots Bakery	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	8900 US-14	open
The Breakers Restaurant	Bar	American · Chinese	7728 US-14	open
Wendy's	Quick service		290 N Il Route 31	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	8	6	—	6	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	9	8	—	8	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	7	6	—	5	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	5	4	—	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	8	6	1	4	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	9	7	2	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	8	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	10	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	12	9	2	7	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	15	13	5	8	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	15	14	5	9	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	14	13	5	8	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	12	11	4	7	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	13	12	4	8	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	12	11	4	7	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	9	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	9	9	3	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	11	11	3	8	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	10	10	3	7	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	11	11	—	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	11	3	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	11	3	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	10	10	3	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	10	10	3	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	9	9	—	6	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	8	8	—	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 60012. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
60014	3.1 mi	110	2023
60050	4.0 mi	68	2023
60156	4.8 mi	29	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.