BMIE Market 62712

Sangamon County, Illinois · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	10,045 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±737 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,382 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±362 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	10,302 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,357 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$110,179 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,381 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	47.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,108 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±123 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$256,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±20,210 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	23.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 62712
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	3.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+200.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+80.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+800.0% DERIVED: 2005 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	10 (range 7–13) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.42) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	83 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	77 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	82 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	95 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 62712. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.42, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Illinois and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,016, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	77.5	77	40%	+31.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	81.7	82	35%	+28.6
Market Momentum Score	95.2	95	25%	+23.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	10,045	71	40%	+28.3
Median household income (ACS)	110,179	87	40%	+34.7
Households (ACS)	4,382	72	20%	+14.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	80	89	35%	+31.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	9.0	76	25%	+19.1
Population (ACS)	10,045	71	20%	+14.2
Median household income (ACS)	110,179	87	20%	+17.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 95 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	200	99	50%	+61.9
10-year restaurant growth	80	89	30%	+33.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (27)

By cuisine

American 3 · Mexican 3 · Coffee 2 · Pizza 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Italian 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 16 · Bar 9 · Quick service 5 · Casual dining 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Specialty food shop 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
55 Development Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6450 6th Street Frontage Rd E	open
Aj's fifty yardline	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1374 Toronto Rd	open
Antonio's Pizza Antonio's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1233 Toronto Rd	open
Capital City McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		6450 S 6th St Frontage Rd E	open
China Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	1213 Toronto Rd	open
Dockside Grill at Lake Springfield Marina	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	17 Waters Edge Blvd	open
El Dorado Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1374 Toronto Rd	open
El Taco Guapo at Lake Springfield Marina	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Mexican	17 Waters Edge Blvd	open
Five Star Liquor & Gaming	Bar		1249 Toronto Rd	open
Free Press Coffee House	Coffee shop	Coffee	1370 Toronto Rd	open
Grateful Coffee Co.	Coffee shop	Coffee	1370 Toronto Rd	open
Head West Sub Stop Head West Sub Stop	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	1281 Toronto Rd	open
Hen House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Breakfast	6009 S 6th Street Frontage Rd E	open
Lake Pointe Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1386 Toronto Rd	open
Larj, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1277 Toronto Rd	open
Mama Lee's Sandbar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		6111 Mechanicsburg Rd	open
Mowie's Cue	Bar		1277 Toronto Rd	open
Pier 55 Lounge	Bar		1225 Toronto Rd	open
Sandbar Lounge	Bar		6111 Mechanicsburg Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1295 Toronto Rd	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	1290 Toronto Rd	open
The Library - Pizza and Sports Bar	Bar	Pizza	1220 Toronto Rd	open
Three Twigs Bakery Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1370 Toronto Rd	open
Tiny Nancer O'fallon Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6450 6th Street Frontage Rd E	open
Walnut Street Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		184 Cravens Rd	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1250 Toronto Rd	open
Island Bay Yacht Club	Restaurant (service type not stated)		76 Yacht Club Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2005	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	5	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	5	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	5	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	6	4	3	1	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	7	4	3	1	—	2	NAICS2012
2013	7	5	3	2	—	2	NAICS2012
2014	7	5	3	2	—	2	NAICS2012
2015	6	4	2	2	—	2	NAICS2012
2016	8	6	4	2	—	2	NAICS2012
2017	8	5	4	—	—	3	NAICS2017
2018	6	3	—	—	—	3	NAICS2017
2019	6	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	7	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	9	7	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	11	9	3	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	12	9	3	5	—	3	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 62712. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
62703	2.8 mi	74	2023
62563	4.9 mi	5	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.