BMIE Market 63019

Jefferson County, Missouri · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	4,489 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±82 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,836 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±170 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,449 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,937 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$72,569 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,348 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,054 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±206 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$186,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,787 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	3.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 63019
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	31.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+57.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+22.2% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-21.4% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	9 (range 5–13) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	58 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	56 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	52 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	71 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 63019. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Missouri and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 668, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	55.8	56	40%	+22.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	51.6	52	35%	+18.1
Market Momentum Score	71.1	71	25%	+17.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	4,489	59	40%	+23.5
Median household income (ACS)	72,569	51	40%	+20.5
Households (ACS)	1,836	60	20%	+11.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	22.2	65	35%	+22.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	24.5	28	25%	+6.9
Population (ACS)	4,489	59	20%	+11.7
Median household income (ACS)	72,569	51	20%	+10.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	57.1	92	50%	+46.1
10-year restaurant growth	22.2	65	30%	+19.5
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (32)

By cuisine

American 7 · Mexican 6 · Burgers 4 · Latin American (other) 4 · Bakery 3 · Pizza 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Asian 2 · Coffee 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · BBQ 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 16 · Bar 7 · Quick service 4 · Bakery 3 · Casual dining 3 · Dessert 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Café 1 · Catering 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Food truck 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Andrew’s French Quarter	Restaurant (service type not stated)		106 Mississippi Ave	open
Casa Charro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	100 S Truman Blvd	open
Casey's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1245 N Truman Blvd	open
Cheese Steaks	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	518 Bailey Rd	open
Crystal City Eagles Club	Bar		Bailey Road	open
Crystal Tavern Crystal Tavern Bar & Grill	Bar	American · Burgers	118 Mississippi Ave	open
Culver's Culver's	Quick service	Burgers · American	200 S Truman Blvd	open
Dairy Queen	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	111 S Truman Blvd	open
Gordon's Stop Light Drive In	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American · Burgers	500 Bailey Rd	open
Iguanas Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	909 N Truman Blvd	open
Jess Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · Chicken / wings	324 Bailey Rd	open
Kettelhut's Smokehouse	Catering	BBQ · American	1267 N Truman Blvd	open
La Pachanga Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	900 S Truman Blvd	open
Lam's Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	510 Bailey Rd	open
Lapachanga Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Mexican · Latin American (other)		open
Las Canadas Mexican Restaurant	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	907 N Truman Blvd	open
Main Street Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Coffee	902 N Truman Blvd	open
On The Grind Coffee Company	Coffee shop	Coffee	1277 N Truman Blvd	open
Pedal'n Pi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	514 Bailey Rd	open
Philly Pretzel Factory Philly Pretzel Factory	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	201 N Truman Blvd	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	203 N Truman Blvd	open
Poppy's Ristorante	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	2000 N Truman Blvd	open
Rumors on Ice	Bar		101 Mississippi Ave	open
Salsa's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1267 N Truman Blvd	open
Skip’s Sugar Shack	Bakery	Bakery	309 N Taylor Ave	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	205 N Truman Blvd	open
Tasty's Street Eats	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck		205 N Truman Blvd	open
Thai Rama	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	606 N Truman Blvd	open
The Donut Hole	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery · American	803 N Truman Blvd	open
The Glass Brick	Bar		112 Mississippi Ave	open
The Office Bar & Night Club	Casual dining · Bar		119 Mississippi Ave	open
Bandanas Bbq	Restaurant (service type not stated)		103 S Truman Blvd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	18	14	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1995	17	13	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1996	20	16	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1997	24	18	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1998	24	18	5	12	1	6	NAICS1997
1999	21	17	6	10	1	3	NAICS1997
2000	20	16	6	9	1	3	NAICS1997
2001	16	13	5	8	—	3	NAICS1997
2002	14	12	6	5	1	2	NAICS1997
2003	13	11	5	5	—	2	NAICS2002
2004	18	13	4	7	1	5	NAICS2002
2005	16	12	3	7	1	4	NAICS2002
2006	15	12	4	7	—	3	NAICS2002
2007	17	13	6	6	—	3	NAICS2002
2008	16	13	6	6	—	2	NAICS2007
2009	16	13	6	6	—	2	NAICS2007
2010	17	14	8	5	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	14	13	7	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	13	11	8	3	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	11	9	6	3	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	13	10	7	3	—	2	NAICS2012
2015	14	11	8	3	—	2	NAICS2012
2016	13	10	9	1	—	2	NAICS2012
2017	9	7	6	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	9	7	7	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	12	11	8	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	10	7	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	9	8	7	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	11	10	7	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	12	11	7	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 63019. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
63048	2.2 mi	4	2023
62295	4.5 mi	2	2015
63070	4.6 mi	10	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.