BMIE Market 63138

St. Louis County, Missouri · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	18,233 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,523 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	7,339 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±574 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	20,175 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	9,083 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$56,096 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,649 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	33.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,161 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±77 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$139,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,687 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	18.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	6 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 63138
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-40.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-62.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-77.8% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	6 (range 3–9) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.52) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	45 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	57 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	48 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	24 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 63138. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.52, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Missouri and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 668, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 45 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	57.2	57	40%	+22.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	47.6	48	35%	+16.7
Market Momentum Score	23.7	24	25%	+5.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	18,233	80	40%	+31.9
Median household income (ACS)	56,096	23	40%	+9.3
Households (ACS)	7,339	80	20%	+16.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 48 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-40	8	35%	+2.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	3.3	97	25%	+24.2
Population (ACS)	18,233	80	20%	+16.0
Median household income (ACS)	56,096	23	20%	+4.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 24 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	-40	8	30%	+2.4
20-year restaurant growth	-62.5	2	20%	+0.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (29)

By cuisine

American 9 · Chicken / wings 5 · Burgers 4 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · Pizza 2 · Asian 1 · Breakfast 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Chinese 1 · Coffee 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 23 · Quick service 11 · Bar 4 · Casual dining 4 · Café 1 · Dessert 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Aunya's Creations	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1010 Lakeview Ave	open
Banana Yummies	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	12105 Bellefontaine Rd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	1471 Dunn Rd	open
Celebrity Dining	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	12117 Bellefontaine Rd	open
China King China King	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	1550 Sierra Vista Pkwy	open
Circle Kitchen	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		11101 Larimore Rd	open
Courtyard Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Coffee · American	12260 Bellefontaine Rd	open
Denny's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	1467 Dunn Rd	open
Flying Flavors	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	American	1660 Pattern Dr	open
Get It N Go Market & Grill	Quick service		11101 Larimore Rd	open
GJ Fish & Chicken Grill-Bellefontaine	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Seafood	11051 Bellefontaine Rd	open
Hood Goods	Restaurant (service type not stated)		12100 Bellefontaine Rd	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	11937 Larimore	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	11830 Lusher Rd	open
Keiths CookHouse	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	American	12104 Bellefontaine Rd	open
KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	11010 Sierra Vista Pkwy	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	11050 Riverview Dr	open
Lion's Den	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		12104 Bellefontaine Rd	open
Lowes Entertainment Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		12260 Bellefontaine Rd	open
Manna The Next Level LLC	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	American	1775 Woodstream Dr	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	11111 Bellefontaine Rd	open
Mom and Pop's Kitchen	Bar	Chicken / wings	12104 Bellefontaine Rd	open
Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	11051 Bellefontaine Rd	open
Pop's Grill, Fish and Chicken	Quick service	Chicken / wings · British / Irish pub food	12087 Bellefontaine Rd	open
Rj's Sports Bar & Lounge	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		1553 Sierra Vista Plz	open
Steak 'n Shake Steak 'n Shake	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	11035 Bellefontaine Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	11005 Riverview Drive	open
The Plate Trap	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	12312 Bellefontaine Rd	open
Too-Shay	Bar	American · Cajun, Creole, Southern	1156 Scott Ave	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	27	27	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	23	23	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	23	21	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	27	22	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1998	26	19	7	11	1	5	NAICS1997
1999	27	19	8	10	1	6	NAICS1997
2000	27	21	11	9	1	5	NAICS1997
2001	22	18	10	8	—	3	NAICS1997
2002	21	17	9	8	—	3	NAICS1997
2003	20	16	6	10	—	2	NAICS2002
2004	19	14	5	9	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	19	14	5	9	—	2	NAICS2002
2006	20	15	5	10	—	3	NAICS2002
2007	15	13	4	9	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	16	14	7	7	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	13	13	6	7	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	13	13	5	8	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	13	13	5	8	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	12	12	7	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	11	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	8	8	—	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	6	6	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	7	7	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	8	8	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	7	7	—	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	6	6	—	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 63138. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
62048	3.6 mi	1	2013
63137	3.7 mi	6	2023
63033	4.4 mi	67	2023
63386	5.0 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.