BMIE Market 72916

Sebastian County, Arkansas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	11,711 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,242 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,732 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±472 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,131 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,971 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$87,983 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,005 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,242 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±116 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$263,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±34,700 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	37.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 72916
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	5.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+120.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+175.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+266.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+1,000.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	12 (range 9–14) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.6 per year, r² 0.78) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	82 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	72 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	81 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	97 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 72916. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.6 restaurants per year, r² 0.78, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Arkansas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 342, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	72.4	72	40%	+29.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	81.1	81	35%	+28.4
Market Momentum Score	96.9	97	25%	+24.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	11,711	73	40%	+29.2
Median household income (ACS)	87,983	71	40%	+28.5
Households (ACS)	4,732	73	20%	+14.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	175	96	35%	+33.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	9.4	75	25%	+18.6
Population (ACS)	11,711	73	20%	+14.6
Median household income (ACS)	87,983	71	20%	+14.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 97 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	120	98	50%	+49.0
10-year restaurant growth	175	96	30%	+28.8
20-year restaurant growth	266.7	96	20%	+19.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (25)

By cuisine

American 5 · Coffee 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · BBQ 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Dessert 1 · Italian 1 · Mexican 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 17 · Bar 6 · Casual dining 5 · Coffee shop 3 · Café 2 · Dessert 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Quick service 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Brewery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Ava’s at Chaffee Crossing	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		11707 Custer Blvd	open
Boondocks	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	12200 Highway 71 S	open
Casey's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	12000 Highway 71 S	open
Conex Bar Taproom and Event Space	Bar		7300 Ellis St	open
Fianna Nutrition \| Fort Smith AR	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Juice / smoothies	9220 U. S. Hwy 71 #1	open
Fort Smith Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		7500 Fort Chaffee Blvd	open
Gregory's Restaurant and Ctrng	Restaurant (service type not stated)		14714 Highway 71 S	open
Jjrk Investments, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		12200 Highway 71 S Ste B	open
JKC Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		7709 Ellis St	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	9811 Ar 253	open
Links at Chaffee Crossing BBQ & Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	11707 Custer Blvd	open
Mcdonald's	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9200 Highway 71 S	open
Moka Joe's Cafe & Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	9207 Highway 71 S Ste 1	open
Native American Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	5701 Steep Hill Rd building d	open
Pernod Ricard USA Pernod Ricard USA	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)		7401 State Hwy 45	open
Piatto	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	9201 R.A. Young Jr Dr	open
Revel Restaurant And Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	9201 Ra Young Jr Dr	open
River Valley Snow	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Ice cream / frozen desserts	11522 Highway 71 S	open
Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	American	4315 Burrough Road	open
Stonehouse Chaffee Crossing	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	8801 Wells Lake Rd	open
Subway	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	12300 Hwy 71 S, Suite D	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	9203 Highway 71 S	open
The Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf	Coffee shop	Coffee	9207 Highway 71 S	open
The Hangout	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	204 AR-45	open
The Sugar Shack	Dessert	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts		open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	2	1	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	2	1	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	1	1	—	—	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	2	2	—	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	2	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	4	3	—	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	6	4	1	3	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	7	5	1	4	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	4	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	4	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	4	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	6	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	7	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	6	5	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	8	5	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	7	5	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	9	7	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	9	7	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	11	10	—	7	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	13	11	5	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 72916. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
72908	3.2 mi	19	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.