BMIE Market 75166

Collin County, Texas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,989 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±276 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,253 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±240 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,070 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,089 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$132,101 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±23,506 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	35.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,203 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±138 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$396,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±30,614 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	12.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	7 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 75166
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	16.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+16.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+16.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+133.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+133.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	5 (range 2–8) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.16) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	73 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	76 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	71 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	73 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 75166. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.16, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Texas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,534, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	76.1	76	40%	+30.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	70.9	71	35%	+24.8
Market Momentum Score	72.8	73	25%	+18.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,989	65	40%	+26.2
Median household income (ACS)	132,101	93	40%	+37.4
Households (ACS)	2,253	63	20%	+12.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	16.7	60	35%	+21.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	10.0	72	25%	+18.0
Population (ACS)	6,989	65	20%	+13.1
Median household income (ACS)	132,101	93	20%	+18.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	16.7	75	50%	+37.3
10-year restaurant growth	16.7	60	30%	+18.0
20-year restaurant growth	133.3	88	20%	+17.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (29)

By cuisine

Bakery 5 · Pizza 5 · American 4 · BBQ 2 · Coffee 2 · Dessert 2 · Mexican 2 · African 1 · Asian 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 14 · Bakery 6 · Quick service 6 · Dessert 3 · Bar 2 · Casual dining 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Food truck 2 · Café 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Batch Made In Heaven	Bakery	Bakery	440 State Highway 78 Ste 220	open
Bearded Monkey Sports Bar & Grill Bearded Monkey Sports Bar & Grill Forney	Casual dining · Bar	American	905 N State Hwy 78	open
Big Daddy's BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	1000 State Highway 78	open
Burgers and Chile Loco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	411 TX-78	open
DODs Gourmet Asian	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	100 Lake Rd Ste 104	open
Domino's Pizza Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	100 Lake Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	905 S State Hwy 78	open
Ebarb Craft Sausage	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck		620 Lake Vista Ln	open
Einstein Bros. Bagels Einstein Bros. Bagels	Bakery	Bakery · Breakfast	845 S. State Hwy 78 Suite 110	open
El Rodeo Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	450 State Highway 78	open
Goodfella's Pizza & Subs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	450 State Highway 78 450 78	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Quick service		450 S State Highway 78	open
Lakeside Sweet Shop	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	450 S State Hwy 78	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service	Pizza	845 S State Hwy 78	open
Los Marquez Food Truck	Food truck		10524 SH-205	open
Mama's Monday's	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	400 State Highway 78	open
Milano's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	450 State Highway 78	open
Miller Pecans	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert		11308 Mason Dr	open
Napolis Pizza and Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	440 State Highway 78	open
Olobe’s Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	African	440 S State Hwy 78 Ste 220	open
San Martino Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		12512 State Hwy 205	open
Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	925 South State Highway 78	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	875 S State Hwy 78	open
SUBWAY	Other	Sandwiches		open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	891 S State Hwy 78	open
The Boozy Slush	Bar		450 State Highway 78 Ste 100	open
Wingstop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	100 S Lake Rd Ste 106	open
Wood And Time Smokehouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	400 Highway 78	open
Your Cake Crafter	Bakery	Bakery	Lavon	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2003	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	6	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	6	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	6	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	6	6	2	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	5	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	6	6	2	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	6	6	2	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	6	6	2	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	6	6	2	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	5	5	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	6	6	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	5	5	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	4	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	4	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	7	7	3	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 75166. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
75173	4.5 mi	3	2023
75087	4.6 mi	123	2023
75098	5.0 mi	88	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.