BMIE Market 75173

Collin County, Texas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	10,664 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,521 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,346 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±385 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,353 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,627 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$101,988 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,304 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	36.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,426 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±78 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$355,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±39,190 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	32.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	3 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 75173
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	2.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2017 → 2022, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+200.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-50.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2014, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+50.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	5 (range 4–7) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2011–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.82) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	74 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	75 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	89 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	51 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 75173. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2011–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.82, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Texas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,534, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	75.3	75	40%	+30.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	89.3	89	35%	+31.3
Market Momentum Score	51.0	51	25%	+12.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	10,664	72	40%	+28.7
Median household income (ACS)	101,988	82	40%	+32.9
Households (ACS)	3,346	68	20%	+13.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 89 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	200	97	35%	+34.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	2.8	98	25%	+24.5
Population (ACS)	10,664	72	20%	+14.4
Median household income (ACS)	101,988	82	20%	+16.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 51 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	200	97	30%	+29.2
20-year restaurant growth	-50	4	20%	+0.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (16)

By cuisine

Coffee 5 · American 4 · Bakery 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mexican 1 · Pizza 1

By type

Café 5 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 5 · Casual dining 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Bakery 2 · Bar 2 · Dessert 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Batch Made in Heaven	Bakery	Bakery	316 CR-642	open
Community Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	760 N Farm To Market 1138	open
Copeville coffee club	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee		open
Delicias Bakery & Café	Bakery · Coffee shop · Café	Bakery · Coffee	6465 S State Hwy 78	open
Edens' Vine	Winery / distillery / taproom		6522 Meadow Ridge Cir	open
Jbas Enterprises, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		213 S FM 1138	open
Jeffs BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	15440 County Road 543	open
One Scoop Away	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	603 W Cook St	open
Pizza Getti	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian · American	7008 S State Hwy 78	open
Rosita's Taqueria and Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Coffee	6465 TX-78 BUS	open
Snack Bomb	Restaurant (service type not stated)		17025 County Road 543	open
The Boot And Saddle Club	Bar		6962 Highway 78 S	open
Tipsy Too	Bar		6962 S State Hwy 78	open
Watkins Country Cafe	Café · Casual dining	Coffee · Breakfast · American	213 S FM 1138	open
Well House Cafe	Casual dining	American	213 S FM 1138	open
Yabba Dabba Dogs	Casual dining	American	137 S Farm To Market 1138	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
2009	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	4	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	4	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 75173. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
75166	4.5 mi	7	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.