BMIE Market 76207

Denton County, Texas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	19,862 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,840 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	8,187 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±514 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	10,579 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,717 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$85,330 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,583 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,769 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±154 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$390,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,414 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	40.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	6 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 76207
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	2.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+200.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	8 (range 6–10) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.55) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	80 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	76 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	83 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	83 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 76207. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.55, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Texas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,534, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 80 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	76.2	76	40%	+30.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	83.1	83	35%	+29.1
Market Momentum Score	82.8	83	25%	+20.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	19,862	81	40%	+32.5
Median household income (ACS)	85,330	68	40%	+27.4
Households (ACS)	8,187	82	20%	+16.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	35%	+28.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	3.0	97	25%	+24.4
Population (ACS)	19,862	81	20%	+16.3
Median household income (ACS)	85,330	68	20%	+13.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	50	90	50%	+45.1
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	30%	+24.7
20-year restaurant growth	50	65	20%	+13.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (22)

By cuisine

American 6 · Burgers 5 · Pizza 4 · Coffee 2 · Italian 2 · Mexican 2 · Breakfast 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 17 · Quick service 7 · Bar 4 · Casual dining 3 · Café 1 · Coffee shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Big Swing'n Band Club	Bar		9428 Ed Robson Cir	open
Boston Market Burger King	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Burgers · American	6420 I-35 Frontage Road	open
Brisket Burger	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	4005 N I 35	open
Cracker Barrel Cracker Barrel Old Country Store	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	4008 N I-35 I-35 & US 380	open
Denny's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	4007 N. Interstate 35	open
Gnome Cones	Quick service		3801 N Interstate 35	open
Godfather's Pizza Express Godfather's Pizza Dayton, OH	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	6421 N Interstate 35	open
Good Eats Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	5812 N. I35	open
Heart & Seoul Enterprises, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4005 N Interstate 35	open
Horny Toad Cafe & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5812 N Interstate 35	open
Lone Star Attitude	Casual dining · Bar		3311 N I-35	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Coffee · Burgers · American	2930 W University	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	6420 N Interstate 35	open
Riccio GP LLC	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	12008 Pepperidge Ave	open
Roman's Pizza Roman's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	3001 N Elm St #200	open
Sea view cafe n cocktail bars	Bar · Quick service · Café	Coffee	3746 Worthington Dr	open
Subway	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	6421 N I-35	open
Taco Bell	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	6420 N Interstate 35	open
Waffle House Waffle House	Casual dining	Breakfast · American	3113 Bandera St	open
Wendy's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	6421 North I-35	open
Wildhorse Grill, Lounge & Bar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	9400 Ed Robson Blvd	open
Your Denton Sonic Sonic Drive-In	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	4005 N I-35	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	4	4	2	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	4	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	4	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	5	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	6	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	5	3	1	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	5	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	5	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	5	4	2	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	5	3	1	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	6	4	2	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	6	4	2	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	6	4	2	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	8	5	3	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	7	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	6	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	7	5	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	7	5	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	10	8	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	8	6	—	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	8	6	—	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 76207. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
76203	1.6 mi	1	2006
76201	1.7 mi	157	2023
76205	3.4 mi	82	2023
76209	3.9 mi	17	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.