BMIE Market 76209

Denton County, Texas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	27,982 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,836 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	10,649 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±662 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	24,018 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	9,999 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$75,069 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,734 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	32.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,444 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±55 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$274,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,336 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	6.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	17 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 76209
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	3.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+21.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+6.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+70.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+142.9% DERIVED: 2000 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	17 (range 14–20) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.18) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	71 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	74 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	68 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	69 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 76209. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.18, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Texas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,534, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	74.4	74	40%	+29.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	68.3	68	35%	+23.9
Market Momentum Score	69.3	69	25%	+17.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	27,982	87	40%	+35.0
Median household income (ACS)	75,069	55	40%	+22.1
Households (ACS)	10,649	87	20%	+17.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	6.3	51	35%	+17.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	6.1	88	25%	+22.0
Population (ACS)	27,982	87	20%	+17.5
Median household income (ACS)	75,069	55	20%	+11.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	21.4	78	50%	+39.2
10-year restaurant growth	6.3	51	30%	+15.2
20-year restaurant growth	70	75	20%	+14.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (65)

By cuisine

Mexican 16 · Bakery 7 · Dessert 7 · American 5 · Coffee 5 · Latin American (other) 5 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 5 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Pizza 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Asian 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Indian 2 · BBQ 1 · Chinese 1 · Japanese 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Vegetarian 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 36 · Quick service 15 · Dessert 9 · Bakery 8 · Bar 5 · Café 4 · Casual dining 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Food truck 4 · Other 4 · Catering 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
3G's Fruitt Ice	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	116 Coronado Dr	open
A J Donuts	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	105 N Loop 288	open
Andersons Eatery and Distillery	Casual dining · Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		410 N Bell Ave	open
Antojitos El Rey	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	805 E McKinney St	open
B-macs Snow Cones	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1117 E McKinney St	open
BackYard on Bell	Bar		410 N Bell Ave	open
Black Pirate	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	500 N Bell Ave Ste 112	open
Chicken Express Chicken Express	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1115 Loop 288	open
Churchs Chicken Church's Chicken	Quick service	Chicken / wings	3450 E McKinney St	open
Cracker Barrel Cracker Barrel Old Country Store	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	410 Coronado Dr	open
Denton Freedom House	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		420 E McKinney St	open
Denton Loves Food Truck	Food truck	Indian	805 E McKinney St	open
El Fenix Mexican Restaurant El Fenix Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Mexican	100 TX-288-LOOP	open
El Rincon del maiz	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Vegetarian	1431 E McKinney St	open
El Sazón Tex-Mex #2	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1601 E McKinney St	open
El Taco Rico	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	107 N Loop 288	open
El Viejon Cocina y Cantina	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Mexican	1431 E McKinney St	open
Four Score Kitchen and Urban Farm	Bakery	Bakery	1303 Stratford St	open
Frequency Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1115 E University Dr	open
Growth	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	311 Frame St	open
Hot Spots Eat Fresh	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Japanese · Chinese	3520 E McKinney St	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service		104 S Loop 288	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		1205 E. University	open
La Estrella Mini Market	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	602 E McKinney St	open
Las Lomas Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	2400 E University Dr	open
Lenny's Sub Shop	Other	Sandwiches	111 E University Dr	open
Mazatlan Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1928 N Ruddell St	open
Metzlers Food & Beverage	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	1115 E University Dr	open
Nate's Raw Harvest	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		3839 Market St	open
Omg Cocina Tex-mex	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex	302 N Crawford St	open
Papa Murphy's Take 'N' Bake Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1105 E University Dr	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	400 N Loop 288 Suite 110 Suite 110	open
Pizza Patron Pizza Patrón	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	111 E University Dr #101	open
Pupuseria Denton	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1201 E University Dr	open
Qdoba Mexican Eats	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	303 Administration Dr	open
Queen Esther's Cupcakes	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	401 N Loop 288	open
S J Donuts	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	2912 E University Dr	open
Sabor Latino	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Latin American (other) · American	302 N Crawford St	open
Sangam Indian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Indian · American	111 E University Dr	open
Sdi Denton, Tx, East University Drive, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2131 E University Dr	open
Some Girl's Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	3839 Market St Ste 107	open
Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	American	2131 East University Drive	open
Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	109 N. Loop #288	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	154 S Loop 288	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2912 E. University Drive Suite 100	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	1607 E Mckinney St Ste 400	open
Sweet Fundy	Bakery	Bakery	809 Oak Vly	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	3971 N. Loop 288	open
Taco Lady Mobile	Food truck	Mexican	1101 E McKinney St	open
Taqueria Guanajuato Taqueria Guanajuato	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1015 E McKinney St	open
The Donut Place	Bar · Bakery · Dessert · Casual dining	Dessert	1125 E University Dr	open
The Dumpling Bros	Food truck		420 E McKinney St	open
The Messy Chef Bakeshop	Bakery · Catering	Bakery	3839 Market St	open
The Pickled Carrot	Food truck	Vietnamese · Asian	208 N Austin St	open
Toasted Simple	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		3821 Market St Suite 125	open
Toros Tacos Y Micheladas	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1607 E McKinney St	open
Tortilleria Tierra Caliente	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1607 E McKinney St	open
Twice the Ice - McKinney St	Dessert · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1611 E McKinney St	open
Veronica's Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Coffee	803 E McKinney St	open
Yonsei Coffee Co.	Coffee shop	Coffee	410 N Bell Ave	open
Zach Shaved Ice	Dessert	Dessert	1607 E McKinney St	open
Zach's Shaved Ice	Dessert	Dessert	625 E Sherman Dr	open
Zera Coffee & Events	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	420 E McKinney St	open
797 Food Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	1431 E Mckinney St Ste 100	closed
Sons Coffee	Café	Coffee	1431 E Mckinney St # 150	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2000	8	7	4	3	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	12	11	6	5	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	10	10	5	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	10	10	5	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	16	16	5	11	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	13	13	5	7	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	12	11	3	8	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	9	8	2	6	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	9	9	3	5	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	8	8	2	5	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	14	14	7	6	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	9	8	2	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	16	16	4	8	4	—	NAICS2012
2014	15	15	4	8	3	—	NAICS2012
2015	14	13	3	7	3	—	NAICS2012
2016	17	16	6	7	3	—	NAICS2012
2017	15	13	5	5	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	16	14	5	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	18	14	4	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	18	15	3	9	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	18	15	3	8	4	—	NAICS2017
2022	22	18	4	9	5	—	NAICS2022
2023	20	17	4	9	4	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 76209. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
76201	2.2 mi	157	2023
76203	2.8 mi	1	2006
76205	2.9 mi	82	2023
76208	3.5 mi	11	2023
76207	3.9 mi	6	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.