BMIE Market 77517

Galveston County, Texas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	5,529 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,128 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,899 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±275 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	5,315 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,024 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$88,567 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,900 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$971 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±359 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$314,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±63,832 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	26.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	5 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 77517
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	1.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+66.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+400.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+150.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+400.0% DERIVED: 1995 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	7 (range 5–9) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2010–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.84) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	78 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	66 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	81 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	94 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 77517. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2010–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.84, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Texas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,534, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	65.6	66	40%	+26.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	80.7	81	35%	+28.2
Market Momentum Score	94.2	94	25%	+23.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	5,529	62	40%	+24.8
Median household income (ACS)	88,567	72	40%	+28.8
Households (ACS)	1,899	60	20%	+12.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	400	100	35%	+34.9
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	9.0	76	25%	+19.0
Population (ACS)	5,529	62	20%	+12.4
Median household income (ACS)	88,567	72	20%	+14.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 94 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	66.7	93	50%	+46.5
10-year restaurant growth	400	100	30%	+29.9
20-year restaurant growth	150	89	20%	+17.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (14)

By cuisine

American 2 · Dessert 2 · Mexican 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · Bakery 1 · Breakfast 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Coffee 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 5 · Bar 4 · Quick service 4 · Bakery 2 · Casual dining 2 · Dessert 2 · Food truck 2 · Café 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
CaerCunn Est.	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		3535 Jack Beaver Rd	open
Chicken Express Chicken Express	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	4210 FM1764	open
Dear Donut Man-Santa Fe Dear Donut Man - Alvin	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	13805 FM-1764	open
Gordas Chulas	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck		13542 Highway 6	open
Grit and Grind Coffee Santa Fe	Coffee shop · Food truck · Café	Coffee	15839 Hwy 6	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service		13620 Highway 6	open
Jodaddy's Bar and Grill	Bar · Casual dining		4247 FM1764 Ste 700	open
Koke's Burrito-BEST BURRITOS IN THE SOUTH	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican · Breakfast	15626 Hwy 6	open
Murphy's Bar	Bar	British / Irish pub food	14710 Hwy 6	open
Santa Fe Seafood and Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Seafood · American	4233 FM1764 #4g	open
Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	4202 Fm 1764 Road	open
Taqueria victoria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	13702 Hwy 6	open
The Donut Hole	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	13805 FM 1764 Rd	open
The Seasoned Spatula	Restaurant (service type not stated)		14710 Highway 6 # A	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	2	—	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	3	1	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	2	—	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	2	—	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	1	—	—	—	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	1	—	—	—	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	2	2	—	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	2	2	—	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	2	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	2	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	2	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	2	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	3	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	5	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2023	6	5	—	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 77517. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
77510	3.1 mi	16	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.