BMIE Market 78073

Bexar County, Texas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	10,088 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,518 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,881 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±367 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	8,171 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,877 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$69,635 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,129 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	34.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,214 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±172 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$158,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±26,251 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	53.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	3 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 78073
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-40.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-25.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-40.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+0.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	3 (range 2–4) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2012–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.25) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	44 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	60 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	52 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	9 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 78073. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2012–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.25, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Texas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,534, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 44 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	60.2	60	40%	+24.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	51.9	52	35%	+18.2
Market Momentum Score	8.5	9	25%	+2.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	10,088	71	40%	+28.4
Median household income (ACS)	69,635	46	40%	+18.6
Households (ACS)	2,881	66	20%	+13.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-25	12	35%	+4.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	3.0	97	25%	+24.4
Population (ACS)	10,088	71	20%	+14.2
Median household income (ACS)	69,635	46	20%	+9.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 9 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-40	7	50%	+3.5
10-year restaurant growth	-25	12	30%	+3.5
20-year restaurant growth	-40	7	20%	+1.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (26)

By cuisine

Mexican 11 · American 4 · BBQ 3 · Coffee 3 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 3 · Burgers 2 · Dessert 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Bakery 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 18 · Quick service 7 · Casual dining 3 · Bar 2 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Dessert 2 · Food truck 2 · Bakery 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Benjamin's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	12886 Fischer Rd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	14710 Interstate 35 Access Rd	open
Carl's Jr. Carl's Jr.	Quick service	Burgers · American	11361 I-35 S	open
Castillo's Ice House	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		12567 Somerset Rd	open
Cinnabon Cinnabon	Bakery · Coffee shop · Café	Bakery · Coffee	14555 Interstate 35 Access Rd	open
Danny's Bar-B-Que	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Mexican	4100 Mansion	open
Diamante Azul Carwash & Detail	Food truck		15370 I-35 S	open
Dos Hermanos Parillada	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	22665 TX-16	open
El Buffalo Taquitos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	20494 Palo Alto Rd	open
El Chisme Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Coffee	13437 I-35 S	open
El General De Jalisco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	14090 IH 35S	open
Frutas Y Algo Mas	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	12750 Fischer Rd	open
K & S Snack Shop	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	22034 White Trail	open
Mini Tacos La Guadalupana	Food truck · Quick service	Mexican		open
Pepe's Watson Rd.	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Mexican	13750 Watson Rd	open
Pollos azados Rancho de peña	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	22034 White trail DR Von ormy\n\n\n	open
Que Pex?	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	15326 Watson Rd	open
Restaurante Anahuac	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	14090 Interstate 35 Access Rd	open
Rios Barbacoa	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	BBQ	23141 TX-16	open
Route 35 Diner	Casual dining	American · Latin American (other)	12946 Interstate 35 Access Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	14555 Interstate 35 Access Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	11390 IH 35	open
Tacos El Trailero 137	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	14429 Interstate 35 Access Rd	open
Texas HardWood BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	BBQ	19161 Benton City Rd	open
The Rustic Cup	Coffee shop	Coffee	14781 Watson Rd	open
The Sugar Bean	Dessert	Dessert	17400 Kinney Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	4	4	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	3	3	1	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	7	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	6	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	7	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	6	5	1	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	6	5	1	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	6	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	8	7	5	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	8	7	4	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	8	7	4	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	8	7	4	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	5	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	4	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	5	5	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	5	5	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	4	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2023	3	3	—	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 78073. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
78069	4.9 mi	5	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.