BMIE Market 78261

Bexar County, Texas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	26,657 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,027 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	9,098 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±696 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	13,513 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,870 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$147,727 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,536 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	36.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,799 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±257 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$430,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±26,911 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	29.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	7 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 78261
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+40.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+133.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+400.0% DERIVED: 2000 → 2020, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+600.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	6 (range 3–9) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.10) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	92 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	90 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	94 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	92 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 78261. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.10, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Texas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,534, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 92 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	89.7	90	40%	+35.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	94.3	94	35%	+33.0
Market Momentum Score	91.8	92	25%	+23.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 90 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	26,657	86	40%	+34.6
Median household income (ACS)	147,727	96	40%	+38.4
Households (ACS)	9,098	84	20%	+16.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 94 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	133.3	95	35%	+33.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	2.6	98	25%	+24.5
Population (ACS)	26,657	86	20%	+17.3
Median household income (ACS)	147,727	96	20%	+19.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 92 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	40	87	50%	+43.7
10-year restaurant growth	133.3	95	30%	+28.5
20-year restaurant growth	400	98	20%	+19.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (34)

By cuisine

American 6 · Coffee 4 · Italian 4 · Dessert 3 · Pizza 3 · Bakery 2 · Mexican 2 · Steakhouse 2 · Chinese 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 21 · Bar 8 · Casual dining 6 · Coffee shop 4 · Dessert 4 · Bakery 3 · Quick service 3 · Café 2 · Food truck 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
18 Oaks	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	23808 Resort Pkwy	open
46th Street Pizzeria 46th St. "New York Style" Pizzeria /Alamo Ranch	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	22250 Bulverde Rd	open
Baskin-Robbins	Dessert · Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee	5523 E Evans Rd	open
Big Hops Gastropub	Restaurant (service type not stated)		22250 Bulverde Rd	open
Bread 'n Remembrance	Bakery	Bakery · Healthy / salads / bowls	3527 Sumantra Clf	open
Chops & Eggs-San. Antonio	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4026 TPC Pkwy	open
Cibolo Moon	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · American	23808 Resort Pkwy	open
Cinnabon JW Marriott San Antonio Hill Country Cinnabon	Quick service		23808 Resort Parkway	open
Cocina Ocotlan	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck		25383 Bulverde Rd	open
Crooked Branch	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		23808 Resort Pkwy	open
Crooked Branch	Bar		23808 Resort Pkwy	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop · Café	Dessert · Coffee	25510 Bulverde Rd	open
Ebenezer Gustitos Sweet	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	6226 Carriage Cape	open
Felix's Neighborhood Pub	Bar · Brewery / taproom		26614 Sago Palm	open
Gorditas "LA Laguna"	Food truck		6909 N. Loop 1604 E. inide Rolling Oaks Mall (Food Court)\n210-267-5227\n\n11618 Jones Maltsberger \n210-709-0341\n\n8210 Marbach Rd\n210-393-0469	open
High Velocity	Bar		23808 Resort Pkwy	open
In Contrada Vineyard and Kitchen	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	27490 Smithson Valley Rd	open
Little Caesars Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5523 E Evans Rd	open
Ravello Italian Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	4272 TPC Pkwy Ste 110	open
Rivertop Grill	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		23808 Resort Pkwy	open
Rothsini's Bar	Bar			open
Round Table Pizza Round Table Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4272 TPC Pkwy	open
Safari Sweet Spot	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Dessert	04888 000-0023	open
Shin Dig	Bar · Casual dining		22250 Bulverde Rd	open
Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	5617 East Evans Road	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	23808 Resort Pkwy	open
Thai Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai	22250 Bulverde Rd Ste 118	open
The Human Bean	Coffee shop	Coffee	25510 Bulverde Rd	open
TPC San Antonio Member's Grille	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar			open
Tutto Pepe Osteria	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · Italian · Latin American (other) · American	22250 Bulverde Rd #114	open
Vida Mia	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	22250 Bulverde Rd	open
Von Texas	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	24823 Terlingua Bnd	open
Wok On Wheels	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	22250 Bulverde Rd	open
Krave Thai	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai	22250 Bulverde Rd Ste 118	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2005	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	8	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	8	7	2	4	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	8	7	2	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	10	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	8	7	1	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	4	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	4	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	7	5	3	2	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	8	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	6	6	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	7	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	6	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	6	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	4	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	7	7	4	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	10	7	3	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 78261. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
78259	4.6 mi	48	2023
78266	4.7 mi	11	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.