BMIE Market 78402

Nueces County, Texas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	554 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±295 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	242 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±95 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	536 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	496 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$55,565 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,080 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	47.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±27 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	Data source not yet connected
Median home value	$193,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±58,906 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	4.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	4 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 78402
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	93.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-33.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-20.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-20.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	2 (range 0–5) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.31) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	22 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	23 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	23 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	17 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 78402. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.31, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Texas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,534, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 22 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	23.0	23	40%	+9.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	22.8	23	35%	+8.0
Market Momentum Score	17.3	17	25%	+4.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 23 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	554	23	40%	+9.1
Median household income (ACS)	55,565	22	40%	+9.0
Households (ACS)	242	25	20%	+4.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 23 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	72.2	6	25%	+1.5
Population (ACS)	554	23	20%	+4.5
Median household income (ACS)	55,565	22	20%	+4.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 17 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-33.3	8	50%	+4.1
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	-20	14	20%	+2.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (19)

By cuisine

American 5 · Dessert 2 · Seafood 2 · Bakery 1 · Burgers 1 · Coffee 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 8 · Bar 4 · Casual dining 3 · Dessert 3 · Quick service 3 · Bakery 1 · Coffee shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Aquabite Market & Kitchen (Kitchen Hours)	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Seafood	5151 W Causeway Blvd	open
Bali's Bar & Grill, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3200 E Surfside Blvd	open
Bamboo Beach Bar at Fajitaville	Bar		221 Hotel Pl	open
Bandas Raspas	Dessert		221 S Hotel Pl	open
Big Daddy's Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	2902 N Shoreline Blvd	open
Blackbeard's On The Beach	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	3117 E Surfside Blvd	open
Blue Marlin Saloon	Bar		3006 E Surfside Blvd	open
Cafe Aqua	Coffee shop	Coffee	2710 N Shoreline Blvd	open
Causeway & Beach Whataburger	Quick service		4444 E CAUSEWAY BLVD	open
Dot'z	Dessert	Dessert	2825 N Shoreline Blvd	open
Eighteen 18 Bar	Casual dining · Bar	American	3200 E Surfside Blvd	open
Fajitaville	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican · Latin American (other)	221 S Hotel Pl	open
Islands Bar And Grill	Casual dining	American	3200 E Surfside Blvd	open
Le Boujiee Bruja Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	Flour bluff dr	open
Pier 99 Restaurant Pier 99 Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	2822 N Shoreline Blvd	open
Scurvy Dog Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3117 E Surfside Blvd	open
Spicy Burger Corner	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		2700 Avenue F	open
Tandem Marketing Services Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2822 N Shoreline Blvd	open
Whataburger Whataburger	Quick service	Burgers · American	4444 E CAUSEWAY BLVD	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	3	1	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	4	2	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	5	3	1	2	—	2	NAICS1997
1999	4	3	1	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	5	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	6	6	5	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	5	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	5	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	5	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	5	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	5	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	6	6	5	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	5	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	7	6	3	3	—	1	NAICS2012
2016	6	5	4	1	—	1	NAICS2012
2017	6	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	7	6	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	6	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	6	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	6	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	4	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	5	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 78402. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
78407	3.1 mi	1	2016
78408	3.6 mi	23	2023
78401	4.5 mi	32	2023
78409	4.6 mi	4	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.