BMIE Market 78538

Hidalgo County, Texas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	11,982 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,474 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,556 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±383 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	10,657 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,127 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$40,399 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,057 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	32.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$556 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±81 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$92,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,318 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	67.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	3 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 78538
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	0.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-50.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+200.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+200.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+50.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	6 (range 3–8) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2012–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.36) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	57 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	46 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	75 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	50 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 78538. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2012–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.36, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Texas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,534, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	45.7	46	40%	+18.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	74.6	75	35%	+26.1
Market Momentum Score	49.7	50	25%	+12.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 46 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	11,982	73	40%	+29.3
Median household income (ACS)	40,399	6	40%	+2.5
Households (ACS)	3,556	69	20%	+13.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	200	97	35%	+34.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	2.5	98	25%	+24.6
Population (ACS)	11,982	73	20%	+14.7
Median household income (ACS)	40,399	6	20%	+1.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 50 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-50	4	50%	+2.0
10-year restaurant growth	200	97	30%	+29.2
20-year restaurant growth	200	93	20%	+18.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (30)

By cuisine

Mexican 7 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 6 · American 4 · Burgers 3 · BBQ 2 · Coffee 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Pizza 2 · Bakery 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 20 · Quick service 7 · Bar 4 · Casual dining 4 · Dessert 4 · Food truck 3 · Bakery 1 · Buffet 1 · Café 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
BG’s Enchilados	Dessert		8229 Azteca Ave	open
Buckhorn Grill	Casual dining · Bar	BBQ · American	506 W Santa Rosa Ave	open
CC's Rolled Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	322 S Broadway St	open
Cuate Burger	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	910 Santa Rosa Ave	open
Dear Grace, Coffee Co	Coffee shop	Coffee	320 W Santa Rosa Ave	open
Don Pedro Mexican & Seafood Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	1405 Santa Rosa Ave	open
Don pepe's taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Mexican	8230 Jesus Bazan St	open
Drunken Idol	Bar		202 Southern Ave	open
El taco place	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1405 W Santa Rosa Ave	open
Gigi's Restaurant & Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee · American	1307 W Santa Rosa Ave	open
Goodtimez Snacks	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	614 N Broadway St	open
Ice Queen Delight	Dessert · Food truck		113 S Railroad St	open
Joe's Fatboy BBQ	Casual dining · Bar	BBQ	320 W Santa Rosa Ave	open
Knight Riders Bar & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		24969 FM 88	open
La Herradura	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	703 E Santa Rosa Ave	open
Lee Roy's Chicken & Burgers	Quick service	Burgers · Chicken / wings	413 W Santa Rosa Ave	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1310 W Santa Rosa Ave	open
Llano Grande	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1 Yellowjacket Dr.	open
Munchies	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex	910 Santa Rosa Ave	open
PANADERIA DONATO	Bakery	Bakery		open
Pizza Xpress	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Pizza · American	616 N Broadway St	open
Rollo's Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Buffet		8207 Mateo Escobar St	open
Snack family	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	24504 Ocean St	open
Tacos Lozoya	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck		13319 Miraflores St	open
Taqueria 107	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	703 E Santa Rosa Ave	open
Taqueria Guerra	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	107 & 493 La Blanca, TX	open
Taqueria La Choca	Food truck · Quick service	Mexican	416 W Edinburg Ave	open
Taquería La Esquina	Restaurant (service type not stated)		421 W Santa Rosa Ave	open
The Blue Spot	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Burgers	24971 FM 88	open
Tortilleria Rodriguez	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	412 W Santa Rosa Ave	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	3	3	—	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	2	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2018	6	6	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	4	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	5	4	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	5	5	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 78538. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
78543	5.0 mi	18	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.