BMIE Market 78736

Travis County, Texas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,651 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,351 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,443 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±486 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	6,946 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,806 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$93,805 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,854 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,830 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±106 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$573,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±64,110 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	22.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 78736
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-33.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+300.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+166.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	4 (range 1–8) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.4 per year, r² 0.42) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	58 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	73 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	52 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	43 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 78736. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.42, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Texas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,534, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	73.3	73	40%	+29.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	52.4	52	35%	+18.3
Market Momentum Score	43.0	43	25%	+10.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,651	70	40%	+28.1
Median household income (ACS)	93,805	77	40%	+30.7
Households (ACS)	4,443	73	20%	+14.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-33.3	9	35%	+3.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.3	79	25%	+19.8
Population (ACS)	9,651	70	20%	+14.1
Median household income (ACS)	93,805	77	20%	+15.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 43 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	-33.3	9	30%	+2.8
20-year restaurant growth	300	97	20%	+19.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (30)

By cuisine

American 3 · Coffee 3 · Pizza 3 · Sandwiches 3 · BBQ 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · Mexican 2 · Bakery 1 · Burgers 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Dessert 1 · European 1 · Indian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 15 · Bar 6 · Quick service 6 · Brewery / taproom 3 · Specialty food shop 3 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Dessert 2 · Bakery 1 · Casual dining 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Amici Ristorante Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · European	9521 US-290	open
Austin Food Group	Restaurant (service type not stated)		11190 Circle Dr	open
Beerburg Brewing	Brewery / taproom		13476 Fitzhugh Rd	open
Bubble & Brew Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	8907 Circle Dr	open
Delaware Sub Shop	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	6626 Silvermine Dr Ste 400	open
Donn's Texas BBQ Donn's BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	7001 Oak Meadow Dr	open
Feral Housewife Wine	Bar		11190 Circle Dr in, building 2, Suite 208	open
Fired Pizzas	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	11160 Circle Dr	open
Flores Mexican Restaurant Flores Mexican Restaurant - Four Points	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	2127 Lohmans Crossing Rd	open
Graceland Grocery	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	8600 Highway 290	open
Jester King Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Bar		13187 Fitzhugh Rd	open
Manolis Ice Cream Pastries & Cakes	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	8907 Circle Dr	open
Manolis Ice Cream, Pops, Sorbet & More	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	8907 Circle Dr	open
Marigold River Bakeshop	Bakery	Bakery	7202 Silvermine Dr	open
Michael Wranischar	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8116 Thomas Springs Rd	open
Oak Hill Social Coffee & Cocktails	Bar · Coffee shop	Coffee	8600 US-290	open
Sipit	Bar		9300 Highway 290 W Ste E	open
Sivestar Indian Tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian · Mexican	7101 State Hwy 71 Ste E1&E2	open
Smash360	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Burgers	8907 Circle Dr Smash360	open
Stanley's Farmhouse Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	13187 Fitzhugh Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Quick service · Café	Coffee	7015 West Us Hwy 290	open
Stonys Pizza Oak Hill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Pizza	9521 US-290	open
Tex-mix Concrete	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9706 Shallowford Dr	open
The Food Trucks at Circle Drive	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)		8905 Circle Dr	open
The Rusty Mule	Bar		9201 Highway 290 W	open
The Thirsty Planet Brewery	Brewery / taproom		11160 Circle Dr	open
Tucci's Southside Subs	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	7101 W Highway 71, Ste A5	open
Vineyard Hills	Winery / distillery / taproom		7631 W Highway 290	open
Wingstop Wingstop	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	7826 W. US Highway 290 Suite 104	open
Winner Winner Rotisserie and Fine Foods	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Specialty food shop	American · Sandwiches	9300 Us-290 W, Bldg E	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	4	3	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	6	5	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	5	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	3	2	—	1	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	2	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	2	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	2	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	5	4	2	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	7	6	2	2	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	6	4	2	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	7	5	3	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	8	6	4	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	10	7	3	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	15	12	6	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	12	11	5	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	11	10	6	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	10	6	4	1	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	8	7	3	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	9	8	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	8	7	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	9	6	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	6	5	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	10	8	—	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	8	—	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 78736. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
78738	4.7 mi	71	2023
78737	4.9 mi	20	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.