BMIE Market 79821

El Paso County, Texas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	7,227 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±337 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,077 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±140 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,142 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,630 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$59,232 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,079 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	36.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,053 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±192 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$153,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,812 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	11.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	16 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 79821
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	16.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-15.8% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+77.8% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+166.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	17 (range 14–19) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.00) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	42 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	50 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	39 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	33 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 79821. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.00, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Texas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,534, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 42 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	50	50	40%	+20.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	39.1	39	35%	+13.7
Market Momentum Score	33.4	33	25%	+8.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 50 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	7,227	66	40%	+26.4
Median household income (ACS)	59,232	28	40%	+11.3
Households (ACS)	2,077	62	20%	+12.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 39 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	22.1	32	25%	+8.0
Population (ACS)	7,227	66	20%	+13.2
Median household income (ACS)	59,232	28	20%	+5.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 33 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-15.8	15	50%	+7.6
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	77.8	77	20%	+15.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (43)

By cuisine

Mexican 13 · American 8 · Burgers 7 · Latin American (other) 6 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 5 · Pizza 4 · Chicken / wings 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Seafood 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Coffee 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 27 · Quick service 15 · Bar 3 · Food truck 3 · Café 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Dessert 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
"Your Ass" Home of world famous BBQ	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		416 Luisa St	open
AY AMA	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	305 S Main St	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	2125 Antonio St	open
Cazares Meat Market	Specialty food shop	Mexican	717 S Main St	open
Cerviche Bar	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	101 E Washington St	open
Chester's Chicken	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	3000 Mountain Pass Blvd	open
De Tin Marin Foodtruck	Food truck	Mexican	308 Franklin St	open
Denny's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	3001 Mountain Pass Blvd	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	1605 Antonio	open
Don Carbon	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2001 Mountain Pass Blvd	open
El Abuelo Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)		open
El Camaron Pelao	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Latin American (other)	100 N Main St	open
Emilianos Pizza & Mexican Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	240 Vinton Rd	open
Gorditas El Atoron	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	816 Franklin St	open
Great American Steakhouse Great American Steakhouse - El Paso	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	600 Valley Chili Rd	open
Homestyle Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	833 S Main St	open
I-10 & Antonio St Whataburger	Quick service		1700 ANTONIO ST	open
Javelina Julia's Llc	Café · Bar	Coffee	209 W Washington St	open
JRZ Snacks	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service		940 Franklin St	open
KFC KFC	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	1811 Antonio Street	open
La Comadre	Restaurant (service type not stated)		833 Main St	open
La Jefa	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	209 W Washington St	open
La Pale Paleteria y Botanas	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Mexican	525 S Main St A	open
La Salsa Mexicana La Salsa	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	917 S Main St	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	200 Franklin St Ste 100	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	101 S Main	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	3000 Mountain Pass	open
Mi Gusto Es	Food truck		101 E Washington St	open
Mona’s Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Burgers	117 N First St	open
Mts. Machinery And Tooling Solutions, Llc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8261 S Desert Blvd	open
Multi-national Investments, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		600 Valley Chili Rd	open
Rollin' Smoke BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	200 S Main St	open
Sonic Drive-In	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1805 Antonio St	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	2015 Antonio St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	319 S Main St	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service		1811 Antonio Street	open
Taqueria San Isidro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	307 Franklin St	open
The G’s Delicious	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	100 Jefferson St	open
The Rose Garden Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	26 E Washington St	open
Vic's Flautas Y Tortas	Quick service	Mexican · Latin American (other)	201 S Main St	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	2015 Antonio Street	open
Wet N Wild Anthony TX	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
Whataburger	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		1700 ANTONIO ST	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	8	6	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	11	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	12	12	8	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	10	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	9	9	3	6	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	9	9	3	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	10	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	10	10	3	7	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	12	12	4	8	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	13	13	6	7	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	11	11	4	7	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	11	11	5	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	12	12	5	7	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	13	13	7	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	17	17	8	8	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	16	16	7	8	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	16	16	8	7	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	16	16	7	8	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	18	18	8	9	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	19	18	8	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	20	19	7	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	18	17	7	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	19	18	7	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	18	17	7	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	17	16	7	9	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	17	16	6	10	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 79821. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
79835	2.9 mi	28	2023
79911	4.7 mi	15	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.