BMIE Market 80534

Weld County, Colorado · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	20,502 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±994 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	7,457 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±404 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	11,301 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,175 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$129,024 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,556 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	35.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,846 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±110 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$553,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±24,518 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	48.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	38 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 80534
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	12.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+72.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+137.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+660.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+3,700.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	46 (range 42–50) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +2.1 per year, r² 0.93) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	86 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	86 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	79 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	95 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 80534. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +2.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.93, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Colorado and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 390, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 86 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	85.9	86	40%	+34.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	78.5	79	35%	+27.5
Market Momentum Score	95.2	95	25%	+23.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 86 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	20,502	82	40%	+32.7
Median household income (ACS)	129,024	93	40%	+37.1
Households (ACS)	7,457	80	20%	+16.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	137.5	95	35%	+33.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	18.5	41	25%	+10.3
Population (ACS)	20,502	82	20%	+16.4
Median household income (ACS)	129,024	93	20%	+18.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 95 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	72.7	94	50%	+46.8
10-year restaurant growth	137.5	95	30%	+28.6
20-year restaurant growth	660	99	20%	+19.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (67)

By cuisine

Coffee 13 · Sandwiches 10 · American 9 · Bakery 7 · Mexican 7 · Dessert 6 · Asian 4 · Healthy / salads / bowls 4 · Juice / smoothies 4 · Pizza 4 · Burgers 3 · Japanese 3 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 3 · Tea / bubble tea 3 · Breakfast 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Chinese 2 · BBQ 1 · Hawaiian / Pacific 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 33 · Quick service 14 · Café 11 · Bar 8 · Bakery 7 · Coffee shop 7 · Dessert 7 · Casual dining 6 · Juice, smoothie, tea 5 · Fast casual 2 · Food truck 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Catering 1 · Delivery-focused 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Ajuua	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	257 Johnstown Center Dr	open
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	4806 Larimer Pkwy	open
B's Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	257 Johnstown Center Dr	open
Bad Daddy's Burger Bar Bad Daddy's Burger Bar	Casual dining · Bar	Burgers · American	4928 Thompson Pkwy	open
Black Sheep Coffee & Crepes Black Sheep Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Breakfast	19 S Parish Ave	open
Bomb-Tacos	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering		3497 Maplewood Ln	open
Bonefish Grill Bonefish Grill	Casual dining · Bar	American · Steakhouse	4920 Thompson Pkwy	open
Bubby's Finest	Bakery	Bakery	1923 Windsong Dr	open
Cafe Mexicali Cafe Mexicali	Café	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Coffee	4853 Thompson Pkwy	open
Canyon Bakehouse	Bakery	Bakery	3600 Ronald Reagan Blvd	open
Cassidy's Sports Grill	Bar · Casual dining	American	15 S Parish Ave	open
Cheba Hut "Toasted" Subs	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls	4942 Thompson Pkwy	open
Chicken Salad Chick Chicken Salad Chick	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Healthy / salads / bowls · Chicken / wings · Sandwiches	4884 Larimer Pkwy #600	open
Clean Eatz Clean Eatz	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	4838 Larimer Pkwy	open
Crumbl - Johnstown	Dessert	Dessert	4948 Thompson Pkwy	open
Culver's Culver's	Quick service	Burgers · American	4890 Thompson Parkway	open
Dominic's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	19 S Parish Ave	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	4365 Ledge Rock Dr	open
Duck Donuts Duck Donuts	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	4842 Larimer Pkwy	open
Firehouse Subs Firehouse Subs	Quick service	Sandwiches	4365 Ledge Rock Dr, Suite 170	open
Firehouse Subs Ledge Rock Firehouse Subs	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	4365 Ledge Rock Dr Ste 170	open
Freddy's Frozen Custard & Steakburgers Freddy's	Quick service · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	4635 Ledge Rock Dr	open
Ginna's Cafe	Coffee shop	Coffee	4755 Ronald Reagan Blvd	open
Golden Goodness Food Truck LLC	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	165 Settler Way	open
Hamo Llc Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	22 S Parish Ave	open
Hiroshi Teriyaki Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4904 Larimer Pkwy	open
Honolulu Poke Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hawaiian / Pacific · Healthy / salads / bowls · Asian	4918 Thompson Pkwy	open
Huang Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	257 Johnstown Center Dr	open
Immortal Rock Bar	Bar		1 N Parish Ave	open
J-Town Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Tea / bubble tea · Coffee	21 S Parish Ave	open
Jared A. Powell, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5255 Ronald Reagan Blvd Ste 200	open
Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	4936 Thompson Parkway	open
Johnson's Corner Restaurant & Bakery Black Bear Diner	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	2842 SE Frontage Rd	open
Johnstown Java & Jams (3J's)	Café	Coffee	21 Parish Ave	open
Johnstown Lunch Box	Café	Sandwiches · Coffee · American	111 W South 1st St	open
Johnstown Vfw	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		104 S 1st Pl	open
Koi Ramen & Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese	4365 Ledge Rock Dr #140	open
Lazy Dog Johnstown Lazy Dog Restaurants	Casual dining · Bar	American	4801 Thompson Pkwy	open
Lift Coffee Bar Lift Coffee Bar	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	4800 Larimer Pkwy	open
Little House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Sushi · Japanese	417 Charlotte St	open
Los Dos Garcia's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	257 Johnstown Center Dr	open
Mary's Mountain Cookies	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	16 S Parish Ave	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	150 S Parish Ave	open
Medicinal Hops Brewery	Brewery / taproom		206 Alabaster Way	open
Mirror Image Taphouse at Woods	Bar		4330 Ledge Rock Dr	open
MOD Pizza MOD Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4938 Thompson Pkwy	open
Mr. Donuts	Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Bakery	Tea / bubble tea · Bakery · Juice / smoothies · Dessert	13 S Parish Ave	open
Nacho Y Kika Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	206 E South 1st St	open
Nothing Bundt Cakes	Dessert	Dessert	1659 Rocky Mountain Ave Ste 301	open
Parry's Pizzeria and Taphouse Parry's Pizza	Bar · Casual dining	Pizza	4874 Thompson Pkwy	open
Qdoba Mexican Grill Qdoba	Quick service	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	4791 Thompson Pkwy Johnstown	open
Quickly Boba Tea Shop & Restaurant	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea · Asian	4922 Thompson Pkwy	open
Santiago's Mexican Restaurant Santiago's Mexican Restaurants	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	12 S Parish Ave	open
Sleep Number	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4884 Larimer Pkwy Ste 100	open
Smokehouse Blues Dining	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Sandwiches	230 E South 1st St	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop	Coffee	4545 Ledge Rock Dr	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	4910 Thompson Pkwy	open
Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	67 Center Court Drive	open
Sweet Stuff Bakeshop & Boutique	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	8 S Parish Ave	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	50 Telep Ave	open
Teriyaki Madness Teriyaki Madness	Quick service	Japanese · Asian	4944 Thompson Pkwy	open
The Cutting Edge Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5 S Parish Ave	open
The Original Heavenly Cakes	Bakery	Bakery	116 W Charlotte St	open
Urban Egg Urban Egg	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	4861 Thompson Pkwy	open
Wing Shack Johnstown Wing Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · American	21 N Parish Ave	open
Ziggi's Coffee Ziggi's Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	4771 Thompson Pkwy	open
Berry Blendz	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	4922 Thompson Pkwy	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	3	1	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	3	1	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	3	—	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	4	1	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	4	1	—	1	—	3	NAICS1997
1999	5	2	—	2	—	3	NAICS1997
2000	4	1	—	1	—	2	NAICS1997
2001	6	3	—	3	—	2	NAICS1997
2002	6	4	1	3	—	2	NAICS1997
2003	7	5	2	3	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	9	6	2	4	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	8	6	3	3	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	12	10	5	5	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	10	10	3	4	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	11	11	3	6	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	13	13	4	7	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	14	14	5	7	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	13	13	5	6	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	13	13	5	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	16	16	8	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	18	18	7	7	4	—	NAICS2012
2015	19	19	7	7	4	—	NAICS2012
2016	19	19	7	8	4	—	NAICS2012
2017	22	21	9	8	4	—	NAICS2017
2018	23	22	9	9	4	—	NAICS2017
2019	30	29	11	11	7	—	NAICS2017
2020	32	31	13	11	7	—	NAICS2017
2021	35	32	11	13	8	—	NAICS2017
2022	34	31	11	13	7	—	NAICS2022
2023	44	38	12	15	11	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 80534. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
80543	4.4 mi	6	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.