BMIE Market 85119

Pinal County, Arizona · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	25,420 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,791 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	10,993 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±680 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	21,219 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	13,530 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$71,585 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,164 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	51.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,284 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±215 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$265,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±28,073 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	45.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 85119
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	0.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+10.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-15.4% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+1,000.0% DERIVED: 2008 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	11 (range 8–13) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.05) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	60 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	72 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	48 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 85119. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.05, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Arizona and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 324, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	71.5	72	40%	+28.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56.0	56	35%	+19.6
Market Momentum Score	48.2	48	25%	+12.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	25,420	86	40%	+34.2
Median household income (ACS)	71,585	50	40%	+19.9
Households (ACS)	10,993	87	20%	+17.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-15.4	16	35%	+5.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	4.3	94	25%	+23.5
Population (ACS)	25,420	86	20%	+17.1
Median household income (ACS)	71,585	50	20%	+9.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 48 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	10	68	50%	+42.3
10-year restaurant growth	-15.4	16	30%	+5.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (30)

By cuisine

American 12 · Burgers 5 · Coffee 4 · Breakfast 3 · Bakery 2 · Steakhouse 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 17 · Casual dining 6 · Quick service 6 · Bar 4 · Coffee shop 3 · Bakery 2 · Café 2 · Dessert 2 · Catering 1 · Food truck 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Barro's Pizza Barro's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	95 S Idaho Rd	open
Bluebird Grill	Café	American · Coffee · Burgers	5405 E Apache Trl	open
Breakfast at Tina's & The hitching post	Casual dining	Breakfast · American	2345 N Apache Trail	open
Burger King	Quick service		2933 S Tomahawk Rd	open
Carl's Jr. Carl's Jr.	Quick service	Burgers · American	2933 S Tomahawk Rd	open
Coffee Cantina Bakery	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	4650 N Mammoth Mine Rd	open
Cottage Farms LLC	Bakery	Bakery	1818 N Vaquero Rd	open
Dolly Steamboat Dolly Steamboat	Bar		16802 E Apache Trl	open
Dutchman's Country BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	1615 N Apache Trail	open
Filly's Restaurant and Lounge	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1615 N Apache Trl	open
Goldfield Enterprises Llc Dba Mammoth Steak House	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4650 N Mammoth Mine Rd	open
Hitching Post Saloon	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	2341 N Apache Trail	open
Jentinks Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering		2455 N Apache Trl	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1000 E Old West Hwy	open
Lakeside Restaurant & Cantina	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	16802 N Highway 88	open
Linda's Hoosier Cafe II	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1535 E Old West Hwy	open
Mammoth Steak House and Saloon	Casual dining · Bar	Steakhouse · American	4650 N Mammoth Mine Rd	open
Miner’s Grill & Ice Cream Parlor	Casual dining · Dessert · Bar	Ice cream / frozen desserts · American	4650 N Mammoth Mine Rd	open
Mining Camp Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	6100 E Mining Camp St	open
Oasis At Roadhaven	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1000 S Idaho Rd	open
Panda Express Panda Express México	Quick service	Chinese · Asian	165 S. Idaho Rd	open
Starbucks Fry's Food	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	150 E Old West Hwy	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Other · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	95 S Idaho Rd Ste 110	open
Sunny Dea Sweet Treats - Coffee, Candy, and Gift Shop	Dessert · Coffee shop	Coffee	1075 S Idaho Rd	open
Superstition Skies Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		945 E Scenic St	open
Toast Gio's Breakfast & Lunch	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Breakfast · American	1422 E Broadway Ave	open
Tortilla Flat Tortilla Flat Saloon	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Burgers		open
Waffle House Waffle House	Casual dining	Breakfast · American	101 E 29th Ave	open
Weekes Station Food Truck Venue	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)		4000 E Apache Trl	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	180 E. Old West Hwy	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2008	1	1	—	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	1	1	—	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	2	2	—	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	2	2	—	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	13	12	8	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	14	13	9	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	13	13	9	2	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	12	12	8	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	12	12	8	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	12	11	8	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	10	6	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	13	11	7	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	16	12	7	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	17	14	8	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	16	12	6	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	14	11	5	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 85119. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
85120	3.1 mi	41	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.