BMIE Market 85207

Maricopa County, Arizona · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	51,178 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,789 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	19,921 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±958 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	44,744 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	20,434 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$108,699 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,614 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	46.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,791 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±81 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$505,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±27,239 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	29.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	26 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 85207
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+4.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+8.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+0.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	31 (range 26–35) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.42) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	74 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	93 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	72 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	48 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 85207. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.42, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Arizona and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 324, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	92.7	93	40%	+37.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	71.7	72	35%	+25.1
Market Momentum Score	48.4	48	25%	+12.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 93 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	51,178	97	40%	+38.9
Median household income (ACS)	108,699	86	40%	+34.4
Households (ACS)	19,921	97	20%	+19.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	5.1	91	25%	+22.9
Population (ACS)	51,178	97	20%	+19.4
Median household income (ACS)	108,699	86	20%	+17.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 48 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	4	60	50%	+30.2
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	8.3	39	20%	+7.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (63)

By cuisine

American 13 · Coffee 8 · Mexican 8 · Pizza 8 · Chicken / wings 6 · Asian 4 · Burgers 4 · Italian 4 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Latin American (other) 3 · Breakfast 2 · Japanese 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Chinese 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Seafood 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 35 · Bar 14 · Quick service 9 · Coffee shop 7 · Café 5 · Casual dining 5 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Dessert 2 · Other 2 · Bakery 1 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Catering 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Fast casual 1 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
12 West Brewing Co.	Brewery / taproom · Bar		7733 E McDowell Rd	open
ATL Wings Atl Wings Az	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · American	6837 E Main St	open
Bogey's steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	7555 E Eagle Crest Dr	open
Breakfast Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Pizza · Breakfast · Italian · American	7143 E Main St	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	9154 E Main St	open
Carbajals Mexican Restaurant	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	7302 E Main St	open
Cassias Mydierra	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	9333 E Apache Trail	open
Cup of Joey	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1021 N Ellsworth Rd #103	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	2119 N. Power Rd Suite 102	open
Dulceria La Victoria	Dessert		9333 E Main St Ste 108	open
Dutch Bros Coffee Dutch Bros Coffee Jackson County	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	9145 E University Dr	open
Fat Willy's University & Hawes Viewpoint Golf Resort Fat Willy's Family Sports Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar · Casual dining	American	650 N Hawes Rd	open
He Brews Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	9350 E Brown Rd	open
J & M Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	1035 N Ellsworth Rd	open
J's Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7145 E Main St	open
JB's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	American · Coffee	6810 E Main St	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	239 N Power Rd	open
Kick's Frozen Yogurt Food Truck	Food truck · Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Ice cream / frozen desserts	8700 E University Dr	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Seafood	9202 E Apache Trl	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	8601 E Main St	open
Las Sendas	Bar			open
Lily's on Main	Bar		7000 E Main St	open
Little Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	7127 E Main St	open
Los Favoritos Los Favoritos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	9124 E Main St #19	open
M's Avenue Grill	Catering	BBQ · American	9322 E Mallory St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	9145 E Apache Trail	open
Michelle's Cakery in Mesa AZ	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	Bakery	8700 E University Dr	open
Mikey's Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	9333 E Main St #11	open
Moreno's Mexican Grill Moreno's Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	6819 E Main St	open
Mr Brews Taphouse - Red Mountain Mr Brews Taphouse - Appleton/Darboy	Casual dining · Bar	Burgers	1157 N Ellsworth Rd #102	open
Old School Grub	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	6810 E Main St	open
Papa Kelsey's Pizza & Subs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	9124 E Main St	open
Peter Piper Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	7246 E Main St Ste 2	open
Phil's Place Phil's BBQ Santee	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service		1345 N Avoca	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza · Chicken / wings	9333 East Apache Trail Maricopa	open
Pizza Roma Italian Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	7145 E Main St	open
Poke & Ramen Domoishi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	6825 E Main St	open
Roma Cafe Ristorante	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	7210 E Main St	open
Rosati's Pizza Rosati's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1035 N Ellsworth Rd	open
Salad Jones	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual · Quick service	Healthy / salads / bowls	123 N Phoenix St	open
Slim & Squeaky's II	Bar		7807 E Apache Trl	open
Sourdough Pizza Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	7440 E Main St	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	1133 N Ellsworth Rd (Bashas - Mesa #11, 0)	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop	Coffee	9100 E Apache Trail	open
Steve's Krazy Sub	Other	Sandwiches	6853 E Main St	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	1021 N Ellsworth Rd Ste 101	open
Suegra's Pika-pika	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	7336 E Main St	open
Tacos El Tata	Quick service · Juice, smoothie, tea	Mexican · Juice / smoothies	7045 E Main St	open
Tacos Tapatio	Juice, smoothie, tea	Latin American (other) · Mexican · Juice / smoothies	7602 E Main St	open
The Back Porch Bar	Bar		8023 E Evergreen St	open
The Human Bean The Human Bean	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	29 S Power Rd	open
The Trough	Casual dining · Bar	American	9303 E Apache Trail	open
University Dutch Bros. Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	9145 E University Drive	open
USA Muscle Car Legends	Bar	American		open
Village Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	6813 E Main St	open
We're Chillin	Bar	Mexican	218 N 80th Pl	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	9111 E University Dr	open
What The Hell Bar & Grill	Bar		7303 E Main St	open
Wingstop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	9124 E Main St Ste 6	open
Wok In	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	7530 E Main St	open
Zax Cigar Bar	Bar		7310 E Main St	open
Zugoi Asian Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Sushi · Japanese	6813 E Main St	open
Rainbow Dulceria	Dessert		8718 E Main St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	26	26	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	22	22	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	18	18	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	18	18	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	19	19	10	9	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	20	20	11	9	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	22	22	10	11	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	19	19	9	9	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	21	21	11	10	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	24	24	14	10	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	35	35	18	16	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	31	30	18	10	2	1	NAICS2002
2006	33	31	18	11	2	2	NAICS2002
2007	32	30	18	10	1	2	NAICS2002
2008	26	24	13	9	1	2	NAICS2007
2009	28	26	13	10	2	2	NAICS2007
2010	30	28	15	10	2	2	NAICS2007
2011	25	21	12	7	2	3	NAICS2007
2012	28	22	12	9	1	4	NAICS2012
2013	30	26	12	13	1	3	NAICS2012
2014	27	23	12	11	—	3	NAICS2012
2015	26	23	13	10	—	2	NAICS2012
2016	26	23	12	9	2	2	NAICS2012
2017	28	25	13	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	29	25	12	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	32	28	14	11	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	30	26	13	10	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	31	27	13	12	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	37	32	16	14	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	31	26	13	12	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 85207. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
85208	3.5 mi	24	2023
85205	4.6 mi	72	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.